Polychronis Economou

On the Bayesian analysis of the mixture of power function distribution using the complete and the censored sample

The power function distribution is often used to study the electrical component reliability. In this paper, we model a heterogeneous population using the two-component mixture of the power function distribution. A comprehensive simulation scheme including a large number of parameter points is followed to highlight the properties and behavior of the estimates in terms of sample size, censoring rate, parameters size and the proportion of the components of the mixture. The parameters of the power function mixture are estimated and compared using the Bayes estimates. A simulated mixture data with censored observations is generated by probabilistic mixing for the computational purposes. Elegant closed form expressions for the Bayes estimators and their variances are derived for the censored sample as well as for the complete sample. Some interesting comparison and properties of the estimates are observed and presented. The system of three non-linear equations, required to be solved iteratively for the computations of maximum likelihood (ML) estimates, is derived. The complete sample expressions for the ML estimates and for their variances are also given. The components of the information matrix are constructed as well. Uninformative as well as informative priors are assumed for the derivation of the Bayes estimators. A real-life mixture data example has also been discussed. The posterior predictive distribution with the informative Gamma prior is derived, and the equations required to find the lower and upper limits of the predictive intervals are constructed. The Bayes estimates are evaluated under the squared error loss function.

Parametric Proportional Odds Frailty Models

We define a parametric proportional odds frailty model to describe lifetime data incorporating heterogeneity between individuals. An unobserved individual random effect, called frailty, acts multiplicatively on the odds of failure by time t. We investigate fitting by maximum likelihood and by least squares. For the latter, the parametric survivor function is fitted to the nonparametric Kaplan–Meier estimate at the observed failure times. Bootstrap standard errors and confidence intervals are obtained for the least squares estimates. The models are applied successfully to simulated data and to two real data sets. Least squares estimates appear to have smaller bias than maximum likelihood.

On Small Samples Testing for Frailty Through Homogeneity Test

We derive a test in order to examine the need of modeling survival data using frailty models based on the likelihood ratio (LR) test for homogeneity. Test is developed for both complete and censored samples from a family of baseline distributions that satisfy a closure property. Approach motivated by I-divergence distance is used in order to determine “credible” regions for all parameters of baseline distribution for which homogeneity hypothesis is not rejected. Proposed test outperforms the usual asymptotic LR test both in very small samples with known frailty and for all small sample sizes under misspecified frailty.

Fitting parametric frailty and mixture models under biased sampling

Biased sampling from an underlying distribution with p.d.f. f(t), t>0, implies that observations follow the weighted distribution with p.d.f. f w (t)=w(t)f(t)/E[w(T)] for a known weight function w. In particular, the function w(t)=t α has important applications, including length-biased sampling (α=1) and area-biased sampling (α=2). We first consider here the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a distribution f(t) under biased sampling from a censored population in a proportional hazards frailty model where a baseline distribution (e.g. Weibull) is mixed with a continuous frailty distribution (e.g. Gamma). A right-censored observation contributes a term proportional to w(t)S(t) to the likelihood; this is not the same as S w (t), so the problem of fitting the model does not simply reduce to fitting the weighted distribution. We present results on the distribution of frailty in the weighted distribution and develop an EM algorithm for estimating the parameters of the model in the important Weibull–Gamma case. We also give results for the case where f(t) is a finite mixture distribution. Results are presented for uncensored data and for Type I right censoring. Simulation results are presented, and the methods are illustrated on a set of lifetime data.

Kullback–Leibler life time testing

The paper deals with testing the hypotheses for homogeneity and point null value of the scale parameter in the gamma family. Tests suggested here are based upon the Kullback–Leibler divergence from an observed vector to the canonical parameter (see Pazman, 1993 [14]), and upon its decomposition. The latter is used to derive the exact distribution of the test statistic by convolution. A geometric integration method is used alternatively to derive the distribution directly. Because it is observed by simulation, that the test’s performance is poor when the shape parameter is estimated from the data, an interval method is developed and its use is demonstrated in an analysis of real data.

Modelling survival data using mixtures of frailties

Frailty models are often used to describe the extra heterogeneity in survival data by introducing an individual random, unobserved effect. The frailty term is usually assumed to act multiplicatively on a baseline hazard function common to all individuals. In order to apply the frailty model, a specific frailty distribution has to be assumed. If at least one of the latent variables is continuous, the frailty must follow a continuous distribution. In this paper, a finite mixture of continuous frailty distributions is used in order to describe situations in which one (or more) of the latent variables separates the population in study into two (or more) subpopulations. Closure properties of the unobserved quantity are given along with the maximum-likelihood estimates under the most common choices of frailty distributions. The model is illustrated on a set of lifetime data.

Closure Properties and Diagnostic Plots for the Frailty Distribution in Proportional Hazards Models

Starting from the distribution of frailty amongst individuals with lifetimes between t 1 and t 2, we construct a graphical diagnostic for the correct choice of frailty distribution in a proportional hazards model. This is based on a closure property of certain frailty distributions in the case t 2 → ∞ (i.e., among survivors at time t 1), namely that the conditional frailty distribution has the same form as the unconditional, with some parameters remaining the same. We illustrate the plot on the Stanford heart transplant data. We investigate the application of the same principle to the case of shared frailty, where the members of a cluster share a common value of frailty. A similar plot can be used when the cluster lifetime is defined as the shortest lifetime of the cluster’s members. Other definitions of cluster lifetime are less useful for this purpose because the closure property does not apply.

On the generalized cumulative residual entropy weighted distributions

ABSTRACT Recently, Feizjavadian and Hashemi (2015) introduced and studied the mean residual weighted (MRW) distribution as an alternative to the length-biased distribution, by using the concepts of the mean residual lifetime and the cumulative residual entropy (CRE). In this article, a new sequence of weighted distributions is introduced based on the generalized CRE. This sequence includes the MRW distribution. Properties of this sequence are obtained generalizing and extending previous results on the MRW distribution. Moreover, expressions for some known distributions are given, and finite mixtures between the new sequence of weighted distributions and the length-biased distribution are studied. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the new results.

Tests of fit for a lognormal distribution

The problem of goodness of fit of a lognormal distribution is usually reduced to testing goodness of fit of the logarithmic data to a normal distribution. In this paper, new goodness-of-fit tests for a lognormal distribution are proposed. The new procedures make use of a characterization property of the lognormal distribution which states that the Kullback–Leibler measure of divergence between a probability density function (p.d.f) and its r-size weighted p.d.f is symmetric only for the lognormal distribution [Tzavelas G, Economou P. Characterization properties of the log-normal distribution obtained with the help of divergence measures. Stat Probab Lett. 2012;82(10):1837–1840]. A simulation study examines the performance of the new procedures in comparison with existing goodness-of-fit tests for the lognormal distribution. Finally, two well-known data sets are used to illustrate the methods developed.

Sample Tests for Detection of Size-Biased Sampling Mechanism

The aim of this article is to present a new test for the detection of size-bias in a sample with or without censored observations. The test is simple in the form and demands only the knowledge of consistent estimators of any nuisance parameters appeared in the model. With the use of simulated samples from the Weibull distribution, we show the advantages of the new test compared to the Likelihood Ratio and the Wald test.