Pontus Naucler

Long term predictive values of cytology and human papillomavirus testing in cervical cancer screening: joint European cohort study.

Objective To obtain large scale and generalisable data on the long term predictive value of cytology and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for development of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+). Design Multinational cohort study with joint database analysis. Setting Seven primary HPV screening studies in six European countries. Participants 24u2009295 women attending cervical screening enrolled into HPV screening trials who had at least one cervical cytology or histopathology examination during follow-up. Main outcome measure Long term cumulative incidence of CIN3+. Results The cumulative incidence rate of CIN3+ after six years was considerably lower among women negative for HPV at baseline (0.27%, 95% confidence interval 0.12% to 0.45%) than among women with negative results on cytology (0.97%, 0.53% to 1.34%)). By comparison, the cumulative incidence rate for women with negative cytology results at the most commonly recommended screening interval in Europe (three years) was 0.51% (0.23% to 0.77%). The cumulative incidence rate among women with negative cytology results who were positive for HPV increased continuously over time, reaching 10% at six years, whereas the rate among women with positive cytology results who were negative for HPV remained below 3%. Conclusions A consistently low six year cumulative incidence rate of CIN3+ among women negative for HPV suggests that cervical screening strategies in which women are screened for HPV every six years are safe and effective.

Evidence Regarding Human Papillomavirus Testing in Secondary Prevention of Cervical Cancer

More than ever, clinicians need regularly updated reviews given the continuously increasing amount of new information regarding innovative cervical cancer prevention methods. A summary is given from recent meta-analyses and systematic reviews on 3 possible clinical applications of human papillomavirus (HPV) testing: triage of women with equivocal or low-grade cytologic abnormalities; prediction of the therapeutic outcome after treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) lesions, and last not but not least, primary screening for cervical cancer and pre-cancer. Consistent evidence is available indicating that HPV-triage with the Hybrid Capture(®) 2 assay (Qiagen Gaithersburg, Inc., MD, USA [previously Digene Corp.] (HC2) is more accurate (higher sensitivity, similar specificity) than repeat cytology to triage women with equivocal Pap smear results. Several other tests show at least similar accuracy but mRNA testing with the APTIMA(®) (Gen-Probe Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) test is similarly sensitive but more specific compared to HC2. In triage of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), HC2 is more sensitive but its specificity is substantially lower compared to repeat cytology. The APTIMA(®) test is more specific than HC2 without showing a loss in sensitivity. Identification of DNA of HPV types 16 and/or 18, or RNA from the five most carcinogenic HPV types allow selecting women at highest risk for CIN3+ but the sensitivity and negative predictive value of these markers are lower than full-range high-risk HPV (hrHPV) testing. After conservative treatment of cervical pre-cancer, HPV testing picks up more quickly, with higher sensitivity and not lower specificity, residual or recurrent high-grade CIN than follow-up cytology. Primary screening for hrHPV generally detects more CIN2, CIN3 or cancer compared to cytology at cut-off atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) or LSIL, but is less specific. Combined HPV and cytology screening provides a further small gain in sensitivity at the expense of a considerable loss in specificity if positive by either test is referred to colposcopy, in comparison with HPV testing only. Randomised trials and follow-up of cohort studies consistently demonstrate a significantly lower cumulative incidence of CIN3+ and even of cancer, in women aged 30 years or older, who were at enrollment hrHPV DNA negative compared to those who were cytologically negative. The difference in cumulative risk of CIN3+ or cancer for double negative (cytology & HPV) versus only HPV-negative women is small. HC2, GP5+/6+ PCR (polymerase chain reaction), cobas(®) 4800 PCR (Roche Molecular Systems Inc., Alameda, CA, USA) and Real Time PCR (Abbott Molecular, Des Plaines, IL, USA) can be considered as clinically validated for use in primary screening. The loss in specificity associated with primary HPV-based screening can be compensated by appropriate algorithms involving reflex cytology and/or HPV genotyping for HPV16 or 18. There exists a substantial evidence base to support that HPV testing is advantageous both in triage of women with equivocal abnormal cytology, in surveillance after treatment of CIN lesions and in primary screening of women aged 30 years or older. However, the possible advantages offered by HPV-based screening require a well organised program with good compliance with screening and triage policies. This article forms part of a special supplement entitled Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012.

Efficacy of HPV DNA Testing With Cytology Triage and/or Repeat HPV DNA Testing in Primary Cervical Cancer Screening

BACKGROUNDnPrimary cervical screening with both human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing and cytological examination of cervical cells with a Pap test (cytology) has been evaluated in randomized clinical trials. Because the vast majority of women with positive cytology are also HPV DNA positive, screening strategies that use HPV DNA testing as the primary screening test may be more effective.nnnMETHODSnWe used the database from the intervention arm (n = 6,257 women) of a population-based randomized trial of double screening with cytology and HPV DNA testing to evaluate the efficacy of 11 possible cervical screening strategies that are based on HPV DNA testing alone, cytology alone, and HPV DNA testing combined with cytology among women aged 32-38 years. The main outcome measures were sensitivity for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) within 6 months of enrollment or at colposcopy for women with a persistent type-specific HPV infection and the number of screening tests and positive predictive value (PPV) for each screening strategy. All statistical tests were two-sided.nnnRESULTSnCompared with screening by cytology alone, double testing with cytology and for type-specific HPV persistence resulted in a 35% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15% to 60%) increase in sensitivity to detect CIN3+, without a statistically significant reduction in the PPV (relative PPV = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.52 to 1.10), but with more than twice as many screening tests needed. Several strategies that incorporated screening for high-risk HPV subtypes were explored, but they resulted in reduced PPV compared with cytology. Compared with cytology, primary screening with HPV DNA testing followed by cytological triage and repeat HPV DNA testing of HPV DNA-positive women with normal cytology increased the CIN3+ sensitivity by 30% (95% CI = 9% to 54%), maintained a high PPV (relative PPV = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.60 to 1.26), and resulted in a mere 12% increase in the number of screening tests (from 6,257 to 7,019 tests).nnnCONCLUSIONSnPrimary HPV DNA-based screening with cytology triage and repeat HPV DNA testing of cytology-negative women appears to be the most feasible cervical screening strategy.

Comprehensive control of human papillomavirus infections and related diseases.

Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is recognized as one of the major causes of infection-related cancer worldwide, as well as the causal factor in other diseases. Strong evidence for a causal etiology with HPV has been stated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer for cancers of the cervix uteri, penis, vulva, vagina, anus and oropharynx (including base of the tongue and tonsils). Of the estimated 12.7 million new cancers occurring in 2008 worldwide, 4.8% were attributable to HPV infection, with substantially higher incidence and mortality rates seen in developing versus developed countries. In recent years, we have gained tremendous knowledge about HPVs and their interactions with host cells, tissues and the immune system; have validated and implemented strategies for safe and efficacious prophylactic vaccination against HPV infections; have developed increasingly sensitive and specific molecular diagnostic tools for HPV detection for use in cervical cancer screening; and have substantially increased global awareness of HPV and its many associated diseases in women, men, and children. While these achievements exemplify the success of biomedical research in generating important public health interventions, they also generate new and daunting challenges: costs of HPV prevention and medical care, the implementation of what is technically possible, socio-political resistance to prevention opportunities, and the very wide ranges of national economic capabilities and health care systems. Gains and challenges faced in the quest for comprehensive control of HPV infection and HPV-related cancers and other disease are summarized in this review. The information presented may be viewed in terms of a reframed paradigm of prevention of cervical cancer and other HPV-related diseases that will include strategic combinations of at least four major components: 1) routine introduction of HPV vaccines to women in all countries, 2) extension and simplification of existing screening programs using HPV-based technology, 3) extension of adapted screening programs to developing populations, and 4) consideration of the broader spectrum of cancers and other diseases preventable by HPV vaccination in women, as well as in men. Despite the huge advances already achieved, there must be ongoing efforts including international advocacy to achieve widespread-optimally universal-implementation of HPV prevention strategies in both developed and developing countries. This article summarizes information from the chapters presented in a special ICO Monograph Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012. Additional details on each subtopic and full information regarding the supporting literature references may be found in the original chapters.

Clinical Utility of PCR for Common Viruses in Acute Respiratory Illness

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory illness (ARI) accounts for a large proportion of all visits to pediatric health facilities. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analyses allow sensitive detection of viral nucleic acids, but it is not clear to what extent specific viruses contribute to disease because many viruses have been detected in asymptomatic children. Better understanding of how to interpret viral findings is important to reduce unnecessary use of antibiotics. OBJECTIVE: To compare viral qPCR findings from children with ARI versus asymptomatic control subjects. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal aspirates were collected from children aged ≤5 years with ARI and from individually matched, asymptomatic, population-based control subjects during a noninfluenza season. Samples were analyzed by using qPCR for 16 viruses. RESULTS: Respiratory viruses were detected in 72.3% of the case patients (n = 151) and 35.4% of the control subjects (n = 74) (P = .001). Rhinovirus was the most common finding in both case patients and control subjects (47.9% and 21.5%, respectively), with a population-attributable proportion of 0.39 (95% confidence interval: 0.01 to 0.62). Metapneumovirus, parainfluenza viruses, and respiratory syncytial virus were highly overrepresented in case patients. Bocavirus was associated with ARI even after adjustment for coinfections with other viruses and was associated with severe disease. Enterovirus and coronavirus were equally common in case patients and control subjects. CONCLUSIONS: qPCR detection of respiratory syncytial virus, metapneumovirus, or parainfluenza viruses in children with ARI is likely to be causative of disease; detection of several other respiratory viruses must be interpreted with caution due to high detection rates in asymptomatic children.

HPV type-specific risks of high-grade CIN during 4 years of follow-up: A population-based prospective study

We followed a population-based cohort of 5696 women, 32–38 years of age, by registry linkage with cytology and pathology registries during a mean follow-up time of 4.1 years to assess the importance for CIN2+ development of type-specific HPV DNA positivity at baseline. HPV 16, 31 and 33 conveyed the highest risks and were responsible for 33.1, 18.3 and 7.7% of CIN2+ cases, respectively. Women infected with HPV 18, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59 and 66 had significantly lower risks of CIN2+ than women infected with HPV 16. After adjustment for infection with other HPV types, HPV types 35, 45, 59 and 66 had no detectable association with CIN2+. In summary, the different HPV types found in cervical cancer show distinctly different CIN2+ risks, with high risks being restricted to HPV 16 and its close relatives HPV 31 and HPV 33.

Contribution of host, bacterial factors and antibiotic treatment to mortality in adult patients with bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia

Rationale Host and bacterial factors as well as different treatment regimens are likely to influence the outcome in patients with bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia. Objectives To estimate the relative contribution of host factors as well as bacterial factors and antibiotic treatment to mortality in bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia. Methods A cohort study of 1580 adult patients with community-acquired bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia was conducted between 2007 and 2009 in Sweden. Data on host factors and initial antibiotic treatment were collected from patient records. Antibiotic resistance and serotype were determined for bacterial isolates. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess risk factors for 30-day mortality. Results Smoking, alcohol abuse, solid tumour, liver disease and renal disease attributed to 14.9%, 13.1%, 13.1%, 8.0% and 7.4% of the mortality, respectively. Age was the strongest predictor, and mortality increased exponentially from 1.3% in patients <45u2005years of age to 26.1% in patients aged ≥85u2005years. There was considerable confounding by host factors on the association between serotype and mortality. Increasing age, liver disease and serotype were associated with mortality in patients admitted to the ICU. Combined treatment with β-lactam antibiotics and macrolide/quinolone was associated with reduced mortality in patients in the ICU, although confounding could not be ruled out. Conclusions Host factors appear to be more important than the specific serotype as determinants of mortality in patients with bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia. Several host factors were identified that contribute to mortality, which is important for prognosis and to guide targeted prevention strategies.

Long term duration of protective effect for HPV negative women: follow-up of primary HPV screening randomised controlled trial

Objectives To assess whether the increased sensitivity of screening for human papillomavirus (HPV) may represent overdiagnosis and to compare the long term duration of protective effect against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) in HPV based and cytology based screening. Design 13 year follow-up of the Swedescreen randomised controlled trial of primary HPV screening. Setting Organised cervical screening programme in Sweden. Participants 12u2009527 women aged 32-38 attending organised screening were enrolled and randomised to HPV and cytology double testing (intervention arm, n=6257) or to cytology only, with samples frozen for future HPV testing (control arm, n=6270). Main outcome measures Cumulative incidence of CIN2+ and CIN3+ (Kaplan Meier curves). Longitudinal test characteristics were calculated for cytology only, HPV testing only, and cytology and HPV testing combined, adjusting for censoring. Results The increased detection of CIN2+ in the intervention arm decreased over time. After six years, the cumulative incidence of CIN3+ was similar in both trial arms, and after 11 years the cumulative incidence of CIN2+ became similar in both arms. The longitudinal sensitivity of cytology for CIN2+ in the control arm at three years was similar to the sensitivity of HPV testing in the intervention arm at five years of follow-up: 85.94% (95% confidence interval 76.85% to 91.84%) v 86.40% (79.21% to 91.37%). The sensitivity of HPV screening for CIN3+after five years was 89.34% (80.10% to 94.58%) and for cytology after three years was 92.02% (80.59% to 96.97%). Conclusions Over long term follow-up, the cumulative incidence of CIN2+ was the same for HPV screening and for cytology, implying that the increased sensitivity of HPV screening for CIN2+ reflects earlier detection rather than overdiagnosis. The low long term risks of CIN3+ among women who tested negative in HPV screening, support screening intervals of five years for such women. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00479375.

Respiratory viruses associated with community-acquired pneumonia in children: matched case–control study

Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of death in children worldwide and a substantial proportion of childhood CAP is caused by viruses. A better understanding of the role of virus infections in this condition is needed to improve clinical management and preventive measures. The aim of the study was therefore to assess the association between specific respiratory viruses and childhood CAP. Methods A case–control study was conducted during 3u2005years in Stockholm, Sweden. Cases were children aged ≤5u2005years with radiological CAP. Healthy controls were consecutively enrolled at child health units during routine visits and matched to cases on age and calendar time. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were obtained and analysed by real-time PCR for 15 viruses. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used to account for coinfections with other viruses and baseline characteristics. Results A total of 121 cases, of which 93 cases met the WHO criteria for radiological pneumonia, and 240 controls were included in the study. Viruses were detected in 81% of the cases (n=98) and 56% of the controls (n=134). Influenza virus, metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus were detected in 60% of cases and were significantly associated with CAP with ORs >10. There was no association with parainfluenza virus, human enterovirus or rhinovirus and coronavirus and bocavirus were negatively associated with CAP. Conclusions Our study indicates viral CAP is an underestimated disease and points out hMPV as a new important target for the prevention of childhood CAP.

Klebsiella variicola Is a Frequent Cause of Bloodstream Infection in the Stockholm Area, and Associated with Higher Mortality Compared to K. pneumoniae

Clinical isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae are divided into three phylogroups and differ in their virulence factor contents. The aim of this study was to determine an association between phylogroup, virulence factors and mortality following bloodstream infection (BSI) caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae. Isolates from all adult patients with BSI caused by K. pneumoniae admitted to Karolinska University Hospital, Solna between 2007 and 2009 (nu200a=u200a139) were included in the study. Phylogenetic analysis was performed based on multilocus sequence typing (MLST) data. Testing for mucoid phenotype, multiplex PCR determining serotypes K1, K2, K5, K20, K54 and K57, and testing for virulence factors connected to more severe disease in previous studies, was also performed. Data was retrieved from medical records including age, sex, comorbidity, central and urinary catheters, time to adequate treatment, hospital-acquired infection, and mortality, to identify risk factors. The primary end-point was 30- day mortality. The three K. pneumoniae phylogroups were represented: KpI (nu200a=u200a96), KpII (corresponding to K. quasipneumoniae, nu200a=u200a9) and KpIII (corresponding to K. variicola, nu200a=u200a34). Phylogroups were not significantly different in baseline characteristics. Overall, the 30-day mortality was 24/139 (17.3%). Isolates belonging to KpIII were associated with the highest 30-day mortality (10/34 cases, 29.4%), whereas KpI isolates were associated with mortality in 13/96 cases (13.5%). This difference was significant both in univariate statistical analysis (Pu200a=u200a0.037) and in multivariate analysis adjusting for age and comorbidity (OR 3.03 (95% CI: 1.10–8.36). Only three of the isolates causing mortality within 30 days belonged to any of the virulent serotypes (K54, nu200a=u200a1), had a mucoid phenotype (nu200a=u200a1) and/or contained virulence genes (wcaG nu200a=u200a1 and wcaG/allS nu200a=u200a1). In conclusion, the results indicate higher mortality among patients infected with isolates belonging to K. variicola. The increased mortality could not be related to any known virulence factors, including virulent capsular types or mucoid phenotype.