Prasad S. Bhattacharya

Institutional Ownership and Firm Performance: Evidence from Finland

This paper investigates the relationship between different classes of institutional investors and firm performance. Using industry level data from Finland, which is characterized by various institutional investors who own multiple ownership stakes in different firms across a broad spectrum of industries, the paper exhibits two novelties. First, unlike previous studies which treated institutional investors as a monolithic group, we segment them in classes. Second, we recognize the joint determination of firm performance and institutional ownership. We account for this issue in the context of a system of equations, using three stage least squares methodology. The empirical results suggest a significant two-way feedback between firm performance and institutional equity ownership. However, this effect is not symmetric. We find that institutional investors with likely investment and business ties with firms have adverse (negative) effect on firm performance and the impact is very significant in comparison to the negative effect of firm performance on institutional ownership.

Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging

This study presents extensive results on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging can be considered beneficial on a priori grounds. We investigate whether rolling window averaging can improve the performance of model averaging, especially when ‘simpler’ models are used. The analysis provides strong support for rolling window averaging, outperforming the best window forecasts more than 50% of the time across all rolling windows. Furthermore, rolling window averaging smoothes out the forecast path, improves robustness, and minimizes the pitfalls associated with potential structural breaks.

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from Australia

This study estimates the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) of Gali and Monacelli for a small open economy using Australian data. Our detailed investigation hinges on estimating the structural parameters in five different variants of the Gali–Monacelli NKPC, which relates the inflation process to terms of trade and the real exchange rate; the marginal cost and output gap as proxies for real economic activity and the hybrid version incorporating both forward‐ and backward‐looking inflation expectations. The analysis and extensive robustness checks overwhelmingly establish that the Gali–Monacelli NKPC cannot explain the dynamics of inflation and is rejected by the Australian data.

Persistence, Capital Account Openness, and Financial Sector Health in Exchange Rate Regime Choice

This paper investigates empirically the persistence in exchange rate regimes as well as the role of capital account openness and financial sector health (measured by financial development and financial sector fragility) in exchange rate regime determination for a panel of 143 countries covering the post-Bretton Woods period. The results demonstrate that while low- and high-income countries exhibit highly persistent exchange rate regimes, middle-income countries display relatively lower persistence. For middle-income countries, capital account openness and the level of financial development play important roles in exchange rate regime choice. The fragility of the financial sector does not affect the exchange rate regime determination.