Przemysław Chylarecki

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

Birds populations allied in abundance Changes in climate can cause populations of species to decline, to increase, or to remain steady. Stephens et al. looked across species of common birds in Europe and the United States. Despite many differences between the two regions, expectations about how a species might respond to climate change did predict actual responses. Species predicted to benefit from increasing temperatures, or their associated effects, tended to increase, whereas those predicted to be negatively affected declined. Thus, even across widely varying ecological conditions and communities, climate change can be expected to alter population sizes. Science, this issue p. 84 The impact of climate change on population sizes of birds across continents can be predicted. Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

New Species in the Old World: Europe as a Frontier in Biodiversity Exploration, a Test Bed for 21st Century Taxonomy

The number of described species on the planet is about 1.9 million, with ca. 17,000 new species described annually, mostly from the tropics. However, taxonomy is usually described as a science in crisis, lacking manpower and funding, a politically acknowledged problem known as the Taxonomic Impediment. Using data from the Fauna Europaea database and the Zoological Record, we show that contrary to general belief, developed and heavily-studied parts of the world are important reservoirs of unknown species. In Europe, new species of multicellular terrestrial and freshwater animals are being discovered and named at an unprecedented rate: since the 1950s, more than 770 new species are on average described each year from Europe, which add to the 125,000 terrestrial and freshwater multicellular species already known in this region. There is no sign of having reached a plateau that would allow for the assessment of the magnitude of European biodiversity. More remarkably, over 60% of these new species are described by non-professional taxonomists. Amateurs are recognized as an essential part of the workforce in ecology and astronomy, but the magnitude of non-professional taxonomist contributions to alpha-taxonomy has not been fully realized until now. Our results stress the importance of developing a system that better supports and guides this formidable workforce, as we seek to overcome the Taxonomic Impediment and speed up the process of describing the planetary biodiversity before it is too late.

Habitat selection of the Ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana in Poland: predictions from large-scale habitat elements

The Ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana was censused in Poland during the Common Breeding Birds Monitoring Project in 2003–2009. Data from 683 monitoring polygons, covering in total more than 0.23% of the country, were used in the analysis. Based on the data and environmental information gathered in GIS databases (Corine land cover “CLC2000 and 2006” database, digital elevation model “GTOPO30” dataset, “Wordclim” dataset, and NDVI dataset), we modeled a habitat- and spatial-related variation of the Ortolan bunting’s presence. Birds were recorded in 13.2% grid cells. The mean density was 0.5 individual/km2. We modeled the spatial presence of birds using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Then models were cross-validated to check their consistency. The environment-use model shows that the Ortolan bunting prefers extensively cultivated farmland dominated by non-irrigated arable fields, small coniferous and mixed forests, complex cultivation patterns, and meadows. The preferred areas are located on lowlands in western and central parts of the country where the climate is the driest and warmest. Such a repeatable spatial pattern model of the population helped to create a predictive map of the Ortolan bunting’s presence in Poland. The general rule is that the probability gradient of its presence increases from the northeastern part of the country to the central and southwestern parts of Poland. Additionally, the Ortolan bunting avoids severe continental climate and regions with dense ground-level vegetation.The Ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana was censused in Poland during the Common Breeding Birds Monitoring Project in 2003–2009. Data from 683 monitoring polygons, covering in total more than 0.23% of the country, were used in the analysis. Based on the data and environmental information gathered in GIS databases (Corine land cover “CLC2000 and 2006” database, digital elevation model “GTOPO30” dataset, “Wordclim” dataset, and NDVI dataset), we modeled a habitat- and spatial-related variation of the Ortolan bunting’s presence. Birds were recorded in 13.2% grid cells. The mean density was 0.5 individual/km2. We modeled the spatial presence of birds using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Then models were cross-validated to check their consistency. The environment-use model shows that the Ortolan bunting prefers extensively cultivated farmland dominated by non-irrigated arable fields, small coniferous and mixed forests, complex cultivation patterns, and meadows. The preferred areas are located on lowlands in western and central parts of the country where the climate is the driest and warmest. Such a repeatable spatial pattern model of the population helped to create a predictive map of the Ortolan bunting’s presence in Poland. The general rule is that the probability gradient of its presence increases from the northeastern part of the country to the central and southwestern parts of Poland. Additionally, the Ortolan bunting avoids severe continental climate and regions with dense ground-level vegetation.

Predictive mapping of Meadow Pipit density using integrated remote sensing data and an atlas of vascular plants dataset

Capsule The highest densities of Meadow Pipits in Central Europe are found in lowland and upland wet meadows. Aims To create a large-scale predictive model of Meadow Pipit density. Methods We analysed factors affecting the density of the Meadows Pipit in Poland using data from 777 × 1 km study plots and a set of 22 environmental variables, including agriculture intensification and habitat-specific plant species as classifiers of meadow types. Predictors were selected using variation inflation factor, then related to species density data using generalized additive models. Results The best-supported model included 11 variables and was clearly better (Akaike information criterion weight = 0.47) than other models. The density of the Meadow Pipit reaches its highest levels on large areas of extensively used wet meadows as well as pastures where livestock graze and which show high photosynthetic activity in April. Conclusion Some aspects of the environment that were not identified from remote sensing data were vital for determining relatively high density. Conservation efforts for preserving Meadow Pipit populations should focus on maintaining wet meadows and extensively grazed pastures. Given the results, the Meadows Pipit may be classified as a good indicator of traditional agriculture.

Białowieża Forest: A new threat

In the Science Insider story “Logging in Europes primeval forest ruled illegal” (18 April, [https://scim.ag/EuroLogging][1]), E. Stokstad reports that the extensive logging in Polands Bialowieza Forest has finally ceased, thanks to a decision by the European Court of Justice. However, the

The Białowieża Forest – a UNESCO Natural Heritage Site – protection priorities

Abstract Despite the fact that only parts of the Białowieża Forest are protected as a national park and nature reserves, the forest is nevertheless as a whole considered a UNESCO Natural Heritage Site, Biosphere Reserve and an integrated Natura 2000 site. In the presently ongoing debate on the conservation priorities regarding the natural value of this forest and the current bark beetle outbreak, two distinct approaches can be recognized: (1) management assumed to involve considerable interference with the forest ecosystems; (2) maintenance of ecological processes and spontaneous restoration of the forest communities. The Białowieża Forest - especially its strictly protected parts - is a “bastion” where species characteristic of ancient forests (including so-called primeval forest relicts) have survived until today. This has been achieved by maintaining the forest’s complexity in areas with considerably reduced human influence, but most of all by maintaining a full spectrum of forest communities, naturally developing forests diverse in age, species composition and spatial structure including stand dieback and breakdown. The following factors need to be taken into account in the protection of the Natural Heritage Site: (1) the internationally recognized value of the Białowieża Forest including its biodiversity, the level of preservation of forest communities and the ongoing natural processes; (2) existing documents and policies concerning nature conservation; (3) research findings from the Białowieża Forest and other natural forest complexes. The key priority is to limit any activities in this forest to an indispensable minimum, mostly concerning security close to roads and tourist tracks as well as collection of fire wood by locals. Without this strict protection, successive and slow anthropogenic transformation will result in the Białowieża Forest sharing the same fate as other forest complexes of the temperate climate zone in Europe or America and lose its globally appreciated value.