Qaiser Munir

The Efficient Market Hypothesis Revisited: Evidence From The Five Small Open Asean Stock Markets

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that returns of a stock market are unpredictable from historical price changes, is satisfied when stock prices are characterized by a random walk (unit root) process. A finding of unit root implies that stock returns cannot be predicted. This paper investigates the stock prices behavior of five ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, for the period from 1990:1 to 2009:1 using a two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) approach which allows testing nonlinearity and non-stationarity simultaneously. Among the main findings, our results indicate that stock prices of Malaysia and Thailand are a non-linear series and are characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the EMH. Furthermore, we find that stock prices of Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore follow a non-linear series, however, stock price indices are stationary processes that are inconsistent with the EMH.

Purchasing Power Parity of ASEAN-5 Countries Revisited: Heterogeneity, Structural Breaks and Cross-sectional Dependence

Abstract This paper tests the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for a collection of ASEAN-5 countries using monthly data spanning the period 1968:1–2009:11. For this purpose, a number of recently developed more powerful panel unit root tests that permit for dependence among the individual countries are employed. In addition to this, we utilize the Lagrange multiplier (LM) cointegration test developed by Westerlund, which is flexible enough to accommodate a large degree of country specific heterogeneity, cross-country dependence as well as multiple structural breaks. The main results derived from this study are: first, our findings from panel unit root tests which do not control for cross-sectional dependence appear to be clearly showing evidence against PPP. Second, the evidence from panel tests controlling for cross-sectional dependence is against PPP over the whole and 1997 pre-financial crisis periods. On the other hand, we find sufficient evidence to support PPP for ASEAN-5 countries over the post-financial crisis period. Third, in stark contrast stand the results obtained from the application of the panel cointegration test provide strong evidence of panel cointegration in whole and sub-periods, providing evidence for PPP; however, these findings have become apparent after allowing for multiple structural breaks as well as for general forms of cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. We provide a detailed description of the breaks identified in the analysis, which appear to be closely associated with some macroeconomic shocks and institutional arrangements. The findings of this study offer important policy implications.

The determinants of leasing decisions: an empirical analysis from Chinese listed SMEs

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of leasing decisions for a sample of China’s non-financial small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Design/methodology/approach – Pooled ordinary least squares and Tobit models are used to analyze five years of data (2009-2013) on the sample units, to find the determinants of leasing decisions after controlling for industry. In order to assess the robust of the results, the authors further apply instrumental variables methods. Findings – The results suggest that CEO ownership, tax rate, financial distress potential, and firm size are positively related to the operating lease share, whereas debt ratio, profitability, and tangibility are negatively linked to the operating lease share. In contrast, capital lease share increases with debt ratio, profitability, firm size, and strong corporate governance; it decreases with CEO ownership and financial distress potential. Research limitations/implications – Using a small sample might not be enough capture industry effects. Future research may gain more insights using sufficient sample and considering the types of leases as well as leased assets. Practical implications – This study offers evidences to the policy-makers who may adopt the practices to promote the development of leasing market. Furthermore, these results provide important implications to lessors in making operating strategy decisions and to potential lessees in making financing decisions. Originality/value – To the authors’ limited knowledge, this is the first study on leasing relies on publicly traded Chinese SMEs. The results of this study enrich the literature on the determinants of leasing in several ways.

EXTERNAL SHOCKS, STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS IN SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES

This paper re-examines the hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis using panel data for 11 Asian countries for the period from 1980 to 2008. This study employs a variety of panel data unit root tests recently advanced by Bai and Ng (2004), Pesaran (2007) and Chang and Song (2009). The advantage of these tests is that they are able to exploit the cross-section variations of the series. In addition to these tests, a new powerful panel stationarity test proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) is applied which exploits the cross-section variations of the series and also allows for different numbers of endogenous breakpoints in the series. Our findings stress the importance of accounting exogenous shocks in the series and provide stronger evidence against the hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis for the countries analyzed. We also discover critical economic affairs which may cause the unemployment rates to fluctuate significantly. Policy implications are proposed through our observations.

Purchasing power parity in ASEAN-5 countries: revisit with cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks

ABSTRACT This paper re-examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for a panel of ASEAN-5 countries. The panel unit root and cointegration tests, which incorporate cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, are innovatively used for testing the PPP hypothesis. We could not find evidence that supports the existence of a long-run equilibrium between the relative price ratio and the nominal exchange rate for the whole period. Nevertheless, there is evidence of a cointegrating relationship for the post-crisis period. Our finding implies that a flexible exchange rate regime is suitable for the individual ASEAN countries.

Revisiting calendar effects in Malaysian finance stocks market: Evidence from threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model

ABSTRACT Recent research reveals that calendar effects have largely disappeared from stock markets. However, majority of the past studies focus on stock markets at the aggregate level but do not provide firm-level evidence. Therefore, this study investigates day-of-the-week and month-of-the-year effects in Malaysian finance stocks market for the period 1/1/1997–31/12/2014. The empirical results from threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model suggest that certain daily and monthly seasonality effects are prevalent along with asymmetric news effect. The findings of study indicate inefficiency in the weak-form sense, implying that it is possible for investors to obtain the observed abnormal returns by using timing strategies.

Public debt sustainability and economic growth in Malaysia: Threshold and causality analysis

The 2008 financial crisis has led to an unprecedented increase in public debt across the world, raising serious concerns about its economic impact. This paper investigates the impact of public debt on long-run GDP growth in Malaysia from the year 1970 to 2013. We employ novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature, such as threshold regression approach suggested by Hansen (2000), causality test and cointegration test. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between debt and GDP growth, controlling for other determinants of growth. Further, our results suggest that there is strong evidence of causality from growth to public debt. In addition, threshold effect and nonlinearity between debt-growth is examined. We found a non-linear impact of public debt on GDP growth with a turning point?beyond which the public debt-to-GDP ratio has a deleterious impact on long-term growth?at about 50-60% of GDP.

Equity market anomalies: concepts, classifi cations, theories and evidence

At the outset, it is important to understand the meaning of ‘anomalies’. In general, anomalies are known as irregularities or deviations from the natural order (George and Elton, 2001). Anomalies that arise from the trading of financial instruments are referred to as the moments when security prices depart from their normal behaviour (Dana and Cristina, 2013). In relation to stock trading specifically, Hubbard (2008) defines anomalies as the trading opportunities derived from the investment strategies that allow for earning above-normal returns.