Qamar Abbas

Climate Change Variability Trends andImplications for Freshwater Resourcesin Pakistan’s Eastern HinduKush Region

Due to climate change, the world average surface temperature has increased 0.3-0.6oC over the past 100 years. The northern belt of Pakistan holds the largest storage of freshwater (ice and snow) after the polar region, and provides water to the downstream population for agriculture plus domestic and hydropower resources. This study focuses on a possible explanation for the seemingly declining behavior of Darkut Glacier using evidence from ground observation and climate station data in Yasin and Gupis valleys in northern Pakistan. We analyzed data obtained from two stations includes the Water and Power Development Authority of Pakistan (WAPDA, 1995-2010) and the Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD, 1986-2015). Results of both climate station data depicted an increase in total precipitation and a decrease in winter and spring seasons. The study also highlighted an increase in mean minimum and maximum temperatures, particularly in winter and spring. Similarly, the trend of solar radiation also has decreased. Therefore, enhanced snout fluctuation and the melting rate of Darkut occurred during the study period. All of these changes have had a negative impact on the snout of the glacier, which has retreated 6 m during 2013 and 2016, and a lake has formed behind the terminal moraine.