Qianfeng Wang

Dynamic Response of Satellite-Derived Vegetation Growth to Climate Change in the Three North Shelter Forest Region in China

Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP) area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland) was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm–dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm–wet conditions in the western region may promote vegetation growth.

A new framework for evaluating the impacts of drought on net primary productivity of grassland

This paper presented a valuable framework for evaluating the impacts of droughts (single factor) on grassland ecosystems. This framework was defined as the quantitative magnitude of drought impact that unacceptable short-term and long-term effects on ecosystems may experience relative to the reference standard. Long-term effects on ecosystems may occur relative to the reference standard. Net primary productivity (NPP) was selected as the response indicator of drought to assess the quantitative impact of drought on Inner Mongolia grassland based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and BIOME-BGC model. The framework consists of six main steps: 1) clearly defining drought scenarios, such as moderate, severe and extreme drought; 2) selecting an appropriate indicator of drought impact; 3) selecting an appropriate ecosystem model and verifying its capabilities, calibrating the bias and assessing the uncertainty; 4) assigning a level of unacceptable impact of drought on the indicator; 5) determining the response of the indicator to drought and normal weather state under global-change; and 6) investigating the unacceptable impact of drought at different spatial scales. We found NPP losses assessed using the new framework were more sensitive to drought and had higher precision than the long-term average method. Moreover, the total and average losses of NPP are different in different grassland types during the drought years from 1961-2009. NPP loss was significantly increased along a gradient of increasing drought levels. Meanwhile, NPP loss variation under the same drought level was different in different grassland types. The operational framework was particularly suited for integrative assessing the effects of different drought events and long-term droughts at multiple spatial scales, which provided essential insights for sciences and societies that must develop coping strategies for ecosystems for such events.

Quantitative and detailed spatiotemporal patterns of drought in China during 2001–2013

Investigation of spatiotemporal patterns of drought is essential to understand the mechanism and influencing factors of drought occurrence and development. Due to the differences in designation of various drought indices, it remains a great challenge to obtain an accurate result in spatiotemporal patterns investigation of drought. In this study, a quantitative drought monitoring index (i.e., Integrated Surface Drought Index, ISDI) was used to identify spatiotemporal patterns of drought and the drought variation trend at the pixel level during 2001-2013 over China. Eco-geographical regionalization was used as an evaluation unit to distinguish the ecological and climatic background of drought over the whole country. The results showed that the spatial distribution of drought intensity has a strong correlation with eco-geographical regionalization in China. The severe drought areas were mainly concentrated in sub-humid regions and semi-arid regions of medium temperate zones, and humid regions of middle subtropical zones. The regions with higher drought probabilities were most distributed in the south and north of China, while the regions in central and western China exhibited lower drought probabilities. The most obvious decreasing trend of ISDI from 2001 to 2013 was located in the northeast of China and south of the Yangtze River. This decrease in ISDI over time indicates a trend for progressive aggravation of drought severity in these areas. This study shows great promise in informing the future drought prevention measures and management policies under the background of more frequent extreme climate events.

Precipitation deficits increase high diurnal temperature range extremes

The relationship between precipitation deficits and extreme hot temperatures has been documented in observation and modeling studies. However, it is unclear whether and how increases in maximum temperatures will impact diurnal temperature range (DTR) extremes. Here, we used observational data sets from meteorological stations in China to examine the trends in high DTR extremes from 1971 to 2013, represented by the percentage of high DTR days (%HDD) and maximum high DTR duration (MHDD), as well as their relationships with precipitation deficits over the past four decades in China. We identified both positive and negative trends in the %HDD and MHDD in China during each season, implying an inhomogeneous behavior of DTR and DTR extremes. Furthermore, we observed a significant negative relationship between precipitation deficits and the %HDD and MHDD during each season, and the relationship was strongest in the summer. The statistical analysis of this coupled behavior indicated that precipitation deficits were related to an increase in high DTR extremes, with a 22% average higher probability of the occurrence of DTR extremes after dry conditions than wet conditions in the summer. Knowledge from this study has important implications for interpreting climate anomalies.

A quantitative assessment of the relationship between precipitation deficits and air temperature variations

Previous studies have reported precipitation deficits related to temperature extremes. However, how and to what extent precipitation deficits affect surface air temperatures is still poorly understood. In this study, the relationship between precipitation deficits and surface temperatures was examined in China from 1960 to 2012 based on monthly temperature and precipitation records from 565 stations. Significant negative correlations were identified in each season, with the strongest relationships in the summer, indicating that higher temperatures usually accompanied water-deficient conditions and lower temperatures usually accompanied wet conditions. The examination of the correlations based on 30 year moving windows suggested that the interaction between the two variables has declined over the past three decades. Further investigation indicated a higher impact of extreme dry conditions on temperature than that of extreme wet conditions. In addition, a new simple index (Dry Temperature Index, DTI) was developed and used to quantitatively describe the relationship between water deficits and air temperature variations. We tested and compared the DTI in the coldest month (January) and the hottest month (July) of the year, station by station. In both months, the number of stations with a DThighI ≥ 50% was greater than those with a DThighI < 50%, indicating that a greater proportion of higher temperatures occurred during dry conditions. Based on the results, we conclude that water deficits in China are usually correlated to high temperatures but not to low temperatures.

Global vulnerability to agricultural drought and its spatial characteristics

As an important part of agricultural drought risk, agricultural drought vulnerability helps effectively prevent and alleviate drought impacts by quantifying the vulnerability as well as identifying its spatial distribution characteristics. In this study, global agricultural cultivation regions were chosen as the study area; six main crops (wheat, maize, rice, barley, soybean, sorghum) were selected as the hazard-affected body of agricultural drought. Then, global vulnerability to agricultural drought was assessed at a 0.5° resolution and finally, its distribution characteristics were revealed. The results indicated that the area percentages of different grades of global vulnerability to agricultural drought from low to very high were 38.96%, 28.41%, 25.37%, and 7.26%, respectively. This means that the total area percentage of high and very high vulnerability zones exceeded 30% of the study area. Although high and very high vulnerability zones were mainly distributed in arid and semi-arid regions, approximately 40% of those above were distributed in humid and semi-humid regions. In addition, only about 15% of the population in this study was located in the high vulnerability regions. Among the vulnerability factors, water deficit during the growing season and the irrigation area ratio are the key factors affecting regional vulnerability. Therefore, the vulnerability could be reduced by adjusting crop planting dates and structures as well as by improving irrigation level and capacity.

Enhancing the Ability of a Soil Moisture-based Index for Agricultural Drought Monitoring by Incorporating Root Distribution†

Agricultural drought differs from meteorological, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought, being closely related to soil water availability in the root zone, specifically for crop and crop growth stage. In previous studies, several soil moisture indices (e.g., the soil moisture index, soil water deficit index) based on soil water availability have been developed for agricultural drought monitoring. However, when developing these indices, it was generally assumed that soil water availability to crops was equal throughout the root zone, and the effects of root distribution and crop growth stage on soil water uptake were ignored. This article aims to incorporate root distribution into a soil moisture-based index and to evaluate the performance of the improved soil moisture index for agricultural drought monitoring. The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China was used as the study area. Overall, soil moisture indices were significantly correlated with the crop moisture index (CMI), and the improved root-weighted soil moisture index (RSMI) was more closely related to the CMI than averaged soil moisture indices. The RSMI correctly identified most of the observed drought events and performed well in the detection of drought levels. Furthermore, the RSMI had a better performance than averaged soil moisture indices when compared to crop yield. In conclusion, soil moisture indices could improve agricultural drought monitoring by incorporating root distribution.