Qicheng Jiang

Residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women

Abstract Objective: To determine the residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women. Methods: A validated state-transition microsimulation model was used. Microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address the uncertainties in the model. All parameters including fracture incidence rates and mortality rates were retrieved from published literature. Simulated subjects were run through the model until they died to estimate the residual lifetime fracture risks. A 10 year time horizon was used to determine the 10 year fracture risks. We estimated the risk of only the first osteoporotic fracture during the simulation time horizon. Results: The residual lifetime and 10 year risks of having the first osteoporotic (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) fracture for Chinese women aged 50 years were 40.9% (95% CI: 38.3–44.0%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3%) respectively. For men, the residual lifetime and 10 year fracture risks were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.5–9.8%) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8–1.7%) respectively. The residual lifetime fracture risks declined with age, whilst the 10 year fracture risks increased with age until the short-term mortality risks outstripped the fracture risks. Residual lifetime and 10 year clinical vertebral fracture risks were higher than those of hip and wrist fractures in both sexes. Conclusions: More than one third of the Chinese women and approximately one tenth of the Chinese men aged 50 years are expected to sustain a major osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetimes. Due to increased fracture risks and a rapidly ageing population, osteoporosis will present a great challenge to the Chinese healthcare system. Limitations: While national data was used wherever possible, regional Chinese hip and clinical vertebral fracture incidence rates were used, wrist fracture rates were taken from a Norwegian study and calibrated to the Chinese population. Other fracture sites like tibia, humerus, ribs and pelvis were not included in the analysis, thus these risks are likely to be underestimates. Fracture risk factors other than age and sex were not included in the model. Point estimates were used for fracture incidence rates, osteoporosis prevalence and mortality rates for the general population.

An Empirical Analysis of Rural-Urban Differences in Out-Of-Pocket Health Expenditures in a Low-Income Society of China

Objective The paper examines whether out-of-pocket health care expenditure also has regional discrepancies, comparing to the equity between urban and rural areas, and across households. Method Sampled data were derived from Urban Household Survey and Rural Household Survey data for 2011/2012 for Anhui Province, and 11049 households were included in this study. The study compared differences in out-of-pocket expenditure on health care between regions (urban vs. rural areas) and years (2011 vs. 2012) using two-sample t-test, and also investigated the degree of inequality using Lorenz and concentration curves. Result Approximately 5% and 8% of total household consumption expenditure was spent on health care for urban and rural populations, respectively. In 2012, the wealthiest 20% of urban and rural population contributed 49.7% and 55.8% of urban and rural total health expenditure respectively, while the poorest 20% took only 4.7% and 4.4%. The concentration curve for out-of-pocket expenditure in 2012 fell below the corresponding concentration curve for 2011 for both urban and rural areas, and the difference between curves for rural areas was greater than that for urban areas. Conclusion A substantial and increasing gap in health care expenditures existed between urban and rural areas in Anhui. The health care financing inequality merits ample attention, with need for policymaking to focus on improving the accessibility to essential health care services, particularly for rural and poor residents. This study may provide useful information on low income areas of China.

Challenges to the Chinese health insurance system: users' and service providers' perspectives.

To achieve universal health insurance coverage, China has launched three phases of health care system reforms. The first round of reforms was embarked on in the mid-1980s with the introduction of market incentives. The second round began in 1997 with the introduction of the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) scheme which provided health insurance coverage to all urban workers in addition to a long-term/historical scheme for government workers. Both the government and UEBMI schemes were limited to individual enrolment; however, dependents such as a spouse or child were not covered. The third phase of reforms began in 2003 with the launch of the New Rural Cooperative Medical Care System (NRCMS). This system covers rural residents at the household level. In 2007, the Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI) program was introduced that further expanded the insurance coverage to unemployed urban residents.[1] UEBMI, URBMI, and NRCMS are acknowledged as basic medical insurance (BMI) and all schemes require payment of enrolment premiums.

Cost-effectiveness of raloxifene in the treatment of osteoporosis in Chinese postmenopausal women: impact of medication persistence and adherence

Aims Raloxifene treatment of osteoporotic fractures is clinically effective, but economic evidence in support of raloxifene reimbursement is lacking in the People’s Republic of China. We aimed at evaluating the cost-effectiveness of raloxifene in the treatment of osteoporotic fractures using an osteoporosis health economic model. We also assessed the impact of medication persistence and adherence on clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of raloxifene. Methods We used a previously developed and validated osteoporosis state-transition microsimulation model to compare treatment with raloxifene with current practices of osteoporotic fracture treatment (conventional treatment) from the health care payer’s perspective. A Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis with microsimulations was conducted. The impact of medication persistence and adherence on clinical outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of raloxifene was addressed in sensitivity analyses. The simulated patients used in the model’s initial state were 65-year-old postmenopausal Chinese women with osteoporosis (but without previous fractures), simulated using a 1-year cycle length until all patients had died. Costs were presented in 2015 US dollars (USD), and costs and effectiveness were discounted at 3% annually. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at USD 20,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results Treatment with raloxifene improved clinical effectiveness by 0.006 QALY, with additional costs of USD 221 compared with conventional treatment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was USD 36,891 per QALY gained. The cost-effectiveness decision did not change in most of the one-way sensitivity analyses. With full raloxifene persistence and adherence, average effectiveness improved compared with the real-world scenario, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was USD 40,948 per QALY gained compared with conventional treatment. Conclusion Given the willingness-to-pay threshold, raloxifene treatment was not cost-effective for treatment of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal Chinese women. Medication persistence and adherence had a great impact on clinical- and cost-effectiveness, and therefore should be incorporated in future pharmacoeconomic studies of osteoporosis interventions.