Qinglan Li

Regional Climate Variations in South China Related to Global Climate Change and Local Urbanization

The main features of climate change, as well as the urbanization effects on climate change in South China (SC) are described. In SC daily maximum and minimum temperatures have increased significantly in the period from 1960 to 2005. However, the rate of increase for the period of 1984 to 2005 in SC was nearly double that of the global increase for the same period. Furthermore, from 1960 to 2005, precipitation exhibited a rising trend, but relative humidity was decreasing. Urbanization of the Pearl River Delta since 1984 significantly affected the daily minimum temperature, precipitation and relative humidity.

An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone-Induced Rainfall Forecast

A non-parametric method is used in this study to analyze and predict short-term rainfall due to tropical cyclones(TCs) in a coastal meteorological station. All 427 TCs during 1953-2011 which made landfall along the Southeast China coast with a distance less than 700 km to a certain meteorological station- Shenzhen are analyzed and grouped according to their landfalling direction, distance and intensity. The corresponding daily rainfall records at Shenzhen Meteorological Station(SMS) during TCs landfalling period(a couple of days before and after TC landfall) are collected. The maximum daily rainfall(R-24) and maximum 3-day accumulative rainfall(R-72) records at SMS for each TC category are analyzed by a non-parametric statistical method, percentile estimation. The results are plotted by statistical boxplots, expressing in probability of precipitation. The performance of the statistical boxplots is evaluated to forecast the short-term rainfall at SMS during the TC seasons in 2012 and 2013. Results show that the boxplot scheme can be used as a valuable reference to predict the short-term rainfall at SMS due to TCs landfalling along the Southeast China coast.

Statistical Regression Scheme for Intensity Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific

AbstractThis study proposes a statistical regression scheme to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h in the northwestern Pacific region. This study utilizes best ...

An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Induced Wind Gust Forecasts

AbstractThis study provides a quantitative forecast method for predicting the potential maximum wind gust at certain automatic weather stations (AWSs) in South China through the investigation of the relationship between the wind gusts observed at the stations and tropical cyclones’ (TCs) main characteristics: TC intensity, TC distance to the station, TC azimuth relative to the station, and TC size. Historical TC data from 1968 to June 2014 within a distance of 700 km to several AWSs in South China are analyzed. The wind gust data available for the same period taken from six coastal AWSs: Yantian International Container Terminal (YICT), Mawan Port (MWP), and Shekou Ferry Terminal (SFT) in Shenzhen, and Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), Cheung Chau Island (CCH), and Waglan Island (WGL) in Hong Kong, are used to build the statistical relationship. The probability of gust gale occurrence (wind gust ≥ 17 m s−1) at these six stations is also computed. Results show that the wind induced by offshore TCs is strongly af...