Qisheng Pan

The Economic Impact of a Terrorist Attack on the Twin Ports of Los Angeles–Long Beach

Because of its size, visibility and diversity, the Los Angeles metropolitan region is a prime target for a terrorist attack. There are many specific targets, the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), downtown high rises (with the highest skyscraper – the US Bank Tower – west of the Mississippi), its theme parks (Disneyland, Universal Studios) its freeways (some of the interchanges have the highest traffic densities in the United States), and its ports. This chapter has developed a spatially disaggregated economic impact model that can evaluate all of these and other plausible attacks. As a representative example, the chapter considers a moderate radiological bomb (so-called dirty bomb) attacks at the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Because these two ports handle almost half of the United States seaborne international trade, any disruption of their trade is likely to have major economic impacts. However, this kind of attack is not the most dangerous imaginable, because it would involve destruction of infrastructure. Many of the impacts would be more psychological, and much would depend on the length of time before the authorities thought it safe to reopen the ports. Accordingly, the scenarios presented also include simultaneous attacks on freeway access to the ports that would magnify the adverse economic impacts. These would not only delay the emergency response but would also stretch out the disruption period because it would take a longer time to rebuild destroyed bridges (or construct temporary bridges), and the alternative routes (in the port access region) available are few and would be highly congested.

Accessibility and Residential Land Values: Some Tests with New Measures

Accessibility is a fundamental concept in theories of metropolitan spatial structure. Urban economic models explain urban structure as a function of access to jobs; accessibility is capitalised into land values, which in turn explain the population distribution. Studies of residential land values show that many factors contribute to the value of a given location: the characteristics of the housing unit, its location with respect to social and environmental amenities, as well as access to jobs, services and other economic opportunities. Empirical studies typically use job access as a proxy for more generalised access to economic activities. However, jobs represent many different activities, from retail shopping to heavy manufacturing, and the value of access to these activities may be positive or negative. In this paper, accessibility measures based on industry sectors have been developed, allowing the separating out of possible different effects. Their impacts are tested on residential land values using data from the Los Angeles region. A multilevel modelling approach is used in order to control for neighbourhood-level attributes common to multiple properties. It is found that the various access measures have different and significant effects on land values, but attributes of the dwelling unit, together with access to the coast, explain most of the variation. The multilevel model is confirmed; there is significant correlation among properties within the same neighbourhood.

The impacts of an urban light rail system on residential property values: a case study of the Houston METRORail transit line

Though the impact of rail transit service on property values has been investigated for transit rail lines in a number of cities, the effects of the Houston light rail transit (LRT) line have not been examined since it began service. This study utilizes the 2007 InfoUSA household data-sets to analyze the impacts of the Houstons LRT line on residential property values. In addition to the traditional ordinary linear regression models that have been widely used in transit impact studies, a multi-level regression model is adopted in this study to identify the effects of the METRORail on the Main Street Corridor. The results from both models suggest that the opening of the light rail has had significant net positive effects on some residential property values. However, immediate proximity to light rail stations and bus stops has significant negative impacts on properties located within a quarter mile of rail stops.

Estimating freight flows for metropolitan highway networks using secondary data sources

In this paper, we suggest that it is possible to estimate most of a metropolitan areas highway network truck shipments from secondary data sources, using these sources to generate relatively inexpensive and updateable link-specific estimates.

National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters

This book develops a national economic impact model to estimate the effects of simulated terrorist attacks and natural disasters on individual US States and economic sectors. The model, called NIEMO (The National Interstate Economic Model) looks at interindustry relationships and interregional trade. It is highly disaggregated making the model very accurate. The authors examine potential attack targets including theme parks, sporting events, bridges and tunnels in the national highway system as well as attempts to shoot down airplanes or spread foot-and-mouth disease. Covered natural disasters are almost all real world: Hurricane Katrina, the Joplin Tornado, the Gulf Oil Spill and Hurricane Sandy. The effects on State economies caused by the closing international borders in response to a global pandemic is also examined.

TransNIEMO: Economic Impact Analysis Using a Model of Consistent Interregional Economic and Network Equilibria

We describe a model that integrates a multiregional input–output (I–O) model of the USA (for 50 States and the District of Columbia) with the national highway network. Inter-state commodity shipments are placed on a congestible highway network. Simulations of major choke-point disruptions redirect traffic which increases the costs of some shipments. Increased costs show up in higher prices which help to determine a new I–O equilibrium. We find economic and network equilibria that are consistent. The simulations show only moderate economic impacts. We ascribe this to the resilience of the highway network. The model provides State-level detail on who bears the costs of the disruptions.

Effects of Rail Transit on Residential Property Values: Comparison Study on the rail transit Lines in Houston, texas, and Shanghai, China

The impacts of a rail transit system on residential property values have been examined for many metropolitan areas in the United States, China, and other countries, yet there have been few comparison studies between countries. Studies have reported both the positive effects of rail transit resulting from improved accessibility as well as the nuisance effects from noise, pollution, crime, and unsightliness. The net effects of a rail transit system could be mixed, and there has been no agreement on which would dominate. This study used METRORail in Houston, Texas, and the Metro in Shanghai, China, as empirical cases and compared their effects on nearby residential property values. A hedonic price model with ordinary linear regression was used in the case study of Shanghais rail transit lines. The Houston case study applied ordinary linear regression and multilevel regression techniques to examine the hierarchical structures of spatial data explicitly. The modeling results from both cases suggest that the overall effects of rail transit lines on residential property values are significantly positive. Notable variations of rail transit effects were also observed at various distance ranges and time spans.

Freight Data Assembling and Modeling: Methodologies and Practice

Abstract In comparison to personal travel, freight movements within large metropolitan areas are much less studied. Most conventional transportation models and planning analysis that disregarded freight flows have been criticized on the plausibility of their results and conclusions. To alleviate these problems, this study proposes a non-survey based approach to assemble and process freight data in a systematic way. A freight origin–destination (OD) matrix of freight flows can be developed using secondary data sources. The estimated freight flows can be loaded together with conventional passenger flows onto the regional highway network of a large metropolitan area. As a case study, this non-survey based approach was applied to build a freight OD and study the traffic flows in Los Angeles. It concluded that this approach can be used to analyze urban freight movement in a low-cost way in which planning agencies can overcome the common omission of freight flow information in their transportation plans.

Economic Impacts of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters: Case Studies of Los Angeles and Houston

Large metropolitan regions are vulnerable to terrorist attacks and natural disasters. Ports and downtown business districts could be targets of terrorist attacks and are also prone to substantial losses from natural disasters like earthquakes or hurricanes. It is important for stakeholders and decision makers to be aware of the spatial distribution of these losses and recognize the potential economic losses from various hypothetical terrorist attacks and natural disasters on these crucial facilities and core sites. The Southern California Planning Model (SCPM), a GIS-based regional planning model developed initially for the five-county Los Angeles metropolitan area, is capable of endogenizing freight and passenger flows and allocating impacts spatially via unexpected impedances to trips and shipments through the regional highway network. This chapter presents the SCPM model and describes several applications via three case studies of hypothetical events: (1) A radiological bomb or so-called „dirty bomb“ attack and conventional bomb attacks on the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; (2) A radiological bomb attack on a large office building in Downtown Los Angeles Financial District; and (3) A hurricane striking the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) region. The results show that the model can allocate the losses to various types of impact analysis zones or political jurisdictions. The methods used in this study are adaptable to almost any kind of terrorist and natural disaster attacks and also transferable to other large metropolitan areas.

Alternative Terrorist Attacks on the Twin Ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach

This chapter sums up some of the recent research on the potential economic impacts of terrorist attacks on the twin ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach. The research considers two types of attack—radiological bombs in the ports and conventional bombs to blow up access bridges, either together or in isolation. The analysis uses the Southern California Planning Model (SCPM), a 3,226 zone input–output model of the five-county Southern Californian region with an endogenous transportation network (this is the SCPM2 model). The research measures the business interruption losses associated with alternative scenarios that vary with port closure periods, bridge reconstruction and the duration of radiation plume evacuations. These losses could range up to