R. A. Harrison

Heliospheric Images of the Solar Wind at Earth

During relatively quiet solar conditions throughout the spring and summer of 2007, the SECCHI HI2 white-light telescope on the STEREO B solar-orbiting spacecraft observed a succession of wave fronts sweeping past Earth. We have compared these heliospheric images with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements obtained by near-Earth spacecraft, and we have found a near perfect association between the occurrence of these waves and the arrival of density enhancements at the leading edges of high-speed solar wind streams. Virtually all of the strong corotating interaction regions are accompanied by large-scale waves, and the low-density regions between them lack such waves. Because the Sun was dominated by long-lived coronal holes and recurrent solar wind streams during this interval, there is little doubt that we have been observing the compression regions that are formed at low latitude as solar rotation causes the high-speed wind from coronal holes to run into lower speed wind ahead of it.

CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front-and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km s(-1)). We track the CMEs to 34.9 +/- 7.1 deg elongation from the Sun with J maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of - 26.4 +/- 15.3 hr. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (fixed-Phi, harmonic mean, self-similar expansion) and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is 8.1 +/- 6.3 hr (rms value of 10.9 hr). Speeds are consistent to within 284 +/- 288 km s(-1) . Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to 6.1 +/- 5.0 hr (rms value of 7.9 hr), and for the speeds to 53 +/- 50 km s(-1). These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

MULTI-POINT SHOCK AND FLUX ROPE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AROUND 2010 AUGUST 1 IN THE INNER HELIOSPHERE

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions, Solar Dynamics Observatory/Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory (SDO/SOHO/STEREO), monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from the solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degrees in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE, and ARTEMIS near Earth and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (approximate to-100 nT), and was caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs.

A SELF-SIMILAR EXPANSION MODEL FOR USE IN SOLAR WIND TRANSIENT PROPAGATION STUDIES

Since the advent of wide-angle imaging of the inner heliosphere, a plethora of techniques have been developed to investigate the three-dimensional structure and kinematics of solar wind transients, such as coronal mass ejections, from their signatures in single- and multi-spacecraft imaging observations. These techniques, which range from the highly complex and computationally intensive to methods based on simple curve fitting, all have their inherent advantages and limitations. In the analysis of single-spacecraft imaging observations, much use has been made of the fixed fitting (FPF) and harmonic mean fitting (HMF) techniques, in which the solar wind transient is considered to be a radially propagating point source (fixed , FP, model) and a radially expanding circle anchored at Sun centre (harmonic mean, HM, model), respectively. Initially, we compare the radial speeds and propagation directions derived from application of the FPF and HMF techniques to a large set of STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations. As the geometries on which these two techniques are founded constitute extreme descriptions of solar wind transients in terms of their extent along the line of sight, we describe a single-spacecraft fitting technique based on a more generalized model for which the FP and HM geometries form the limiting cases. In addition to providing estimates of a transients speed and propagation direction, the self-similar expansion fitting (SSEF) technique provides, in theory, the capability to estimate the transients angular extent in the plane orthogonal to the field of view. Using the HI observations, and also by performing a Monte Carlo simulation, we assess the potential of the SSEF technique.

A solar storm observed from the Sun to Venus using the STEREO, Venus Express, and MESSENGER spacecraft

The suite of SECCHI optical imaging instruments on the STEREO-A spacecraft is used to track a solar storm, consisting of several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other coronal loops, as it propagates from the Sun into the heliosphere during May 2007. The 3-D propagation path of the largest interplanetary CME (ICME) is determined from the observations made by the SECCHI Heliospheric Imager (HI) on STEREO-A (HI-1/2A). Two parts of the CME are tracked through the SECCHI images, a bright loop and a V-shaped feature located at the rear of the event. We show that these two structures could be the result of line-of-sight integration of the light scattered by electrons located on a single flux rope. In addition to being imaged by HI, the CME is observed simultaneously by the plasma and magnetic field experiments on the Venus Express and MESSENGER spacecraft. The imaged loop and V-shaped structure bound, as expected, the flux rope observed in situ. The SECCHI images reveal that the leading loop-like structure propagated faster than the V-shaped structure, and a decrease in in situ CME speed occurred during the passage of the flux rope. We interpret this as the result of the continuous radial expansion of the flux rope as it progressed outward through the interplanetary medium. An expansion speed in the radial direction of similar to 30 km s(-1) is obtained directly from the SECCHI-HI images and is in agreement with the difference in speed of the two structures observed in situ. This paper shows that the flux rope location can be determined from white light images, which could have important space weather applications.

ESTABLISHING A STEREOSCOPIC TECHNIQUE FOR DETERMINING THE KINEMATIC PROPERTIES OF SOLAR WIND TRANSIENTS BASED ON A GENERALIZED SELF-SIMILARLY EXPANDING CIRCULAR GEOMETRY

The twin-spacecraft STEREO mission has enabled simultaneous white-light imaging of the solar corona and inner heliosphere from multiple vantage points. This has led to the development of numerous stereoscopic techniques to investigate the three-dimensional structure and kinematics of solar wind transients such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Two such methods-triangulation and the tangent to a sphere-can be used to determine time profiles of the propagation direction and radial distance (and thereby radial speed) of a solar wind transient as it travels through the inner heliosphere, based on its time-elongation profile viewed by two observers. These techniques are founded on the assumption that the transient can be characterized as a point source (fixed phi, FP, approximation) or a circle attached to Sun-center (harmonic mean, HM, approximation), respectively. These geometries constitute extreme descriptions of solar wind transients, in terms of their cross-sectional extent. Here, we present the stereoscopic expressions necessary to derive propagation direction and radial distance/speed profiles of such transients based on the more generalized self-similar expansion (SSE) geometry, for which the FP and HM geometries form the limiting cases; our implementation of these equations is termed the stereoscopic SSE method. We apply the technique to two Earth-directed CMEs from different phases of the STEREO mission, the well-studied event of 2008 December and a more recent event from 2012 March. The latter CME was fast, with an initial speed exceeding 2000 km s(-1), and highly geoeffective, in stark contrast to the slow and ineffectual 2008 December CME.

High-Velocity Flows in an Active Region Loop System Observed with the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) on SOHO

EUV spectra of coronal loops above an active region show clear evidence of strong dynamical activity. We present an example where the Ov 629 Å line, formed at 240 000 K, is shifted from its reference position corresponding to line-of-sight velocities greater than 50 km s-1 with the shift extending over a large fraction of a loop. The observations were made with the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and are from active region NOAA 7981 on the east solar limb on 27 July 1996. An animation has been prepared showing the variation of the shift or flow velocity along the loop. This animation is to be found on the enclosed CD-ROM and gives a clear impression of the dynamical condition present in the loop. The appearance of the loop system in different lines formed over a range in temperature as well as the observed dynamics indicates that loops at different temperatures are not closely co-located. Finally, the results are discussed and related to mechanisms that may cause line shifts.

The differential rotation of the corona as indicated by coronal holes

The rotation of the corona can be determined either directly by using Doppler methods or indirectly by using tracers, i.e., structures within the corona. In this study the rotational characteristics of the corona are determined using coronal holes as tracers, for the period 1978–1991. The coronal data used here are from an atlas of coronal holes mapped in Hei 10830 Å data. A comparison is made between our results and previous determinations of the coronal rotation rate, e.g., by Sime (1986), using white-light K-coronameter observations, by Timothy, Krieger, and Vaiana (1975), using soft X-ray observations, and by Shelke and Pande (1985) and Navarro-Peralta and Sanchez-Ibarra (1994), using Hei 10830 Å data. For the atlas of coronal holes used in this study the nature of the coronal hole distributions in number and latitude, in yearly averages, has been determined. These distributions show that at solar minimum the polar coronal holes dominate and the few non-polar holes are confined to a narrow band near the equator. At solar maximum, however, mid-latitude coronal holes dominate, with a large spread in latitudes. Given these distributions we consider the differential rotation data only as an average over a solar cycle. This removes spurious effects caused by having only a small number of coronal holes contributing to the results, or by having a narrow latitude band for the observations, thus limiting the results to that narrow latitude band. By considering these coronal holes as tracers of the differential rotation we show that the mid-latitude corona rotates more rigidly than the photosphere, but still exhibits significant differential rotation, with an equatorial rate of 13.30 ± 0.04° day−1, and at 45° latitude a rate of 12.57 ± 0.13° day−1. These results are comparable, within errors, to the Sime (1986) results which have an equatorial rate of approximately 13.2 ± 0.2° day−1 and a rate of approximately 12.9 ± 0.3° day−1 at 45° latitude.

ARRIVAL TIME CALCULATION FOR INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH CIRCULAR FRONTS AND APPLICATION TO STEREO OBSERVATIONS OF THE 2009 FEBRUARY 13 ERUPTION

One of the goals of the NASA Solar TErestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time, and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape [fixed-Φ (FP): a point and harmonic mean (HM): a circle]. These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are based on the assumption of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km s–1) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hr than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hr for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case, the ICME has to be tracked to >30° elongation to obtain arrival time errors < ± 5 hr. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry.

The relationship between EUV dimming and coronal mass ejections I. Statistical study and probability model

Aims. There have been many studies of extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) dimming in association with coronal mass ejection (CME) onsets. However, there has never been a thorough statistical study of this association, covering appropriate temperature ranges. Thus, we make use of a large campaign database utilising the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) and the Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph (LASCO) both on the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) to associate dimming events detected at 1 and 2 million K with CME activity. The aim is to confirm whether the dimming-CME association is real or not. This in turn will confirm whether special attention should be paid to the EUV dimming in the pre-eruption and eruption periods to study the CME onset process itself. Methods. The CDS CME onset campaign data for Mg ix and Fe xvi observations on the solar limb are used to compare to LASCO event lists over a period from 1998 to 2005. Dimming events are identified and the physical extent explored, whilst comparing the events to overlying CME activity. Results. For the identified dimming regions we have shown strong associations with CME onsets, with up to 55% of the dimming events being associated with CME activity. This is compared to the random case where up to 47% of the dimming regions are expected to be associated with CMEs. We have also shown that up to 84% of CMEs associated with our data can be tracked back to dimming regions. This compares to a random case of up to 58%. Conclusions. These results confirm the CME-EUV dimming association, using a statistical analysis for the first time. We discuss the repercussions for the study of CME onsets, i.e. analysis of the dimming regions and the periods up to such dimming may be key to understanding the pre-CME onset plasma processes. The results stress that one emission line may not be sufficient for associating dimming regions with CMEs.