R.B.S. Yadav

Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas

A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude Mmax, β value of G–R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity λ). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for MWxa0≥xa05.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow (hxa0≤xa070xa0km) and intermediate depth (hxa0>xa070xa0km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100xa0years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90xa0% in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated Mmax greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges, Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of Mmax (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90xa0% probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya.

Site classification of Indian strong motion network using response spectra ratios

In the present study, we tried to classify thexa0Indian strong motion sites spread all over Himalaya and adjoining region, located on varied geological formations, based on response spectral ratio. A total of 90 sites were classified based on 395 strong motion records from 94 earthquakes recorded at these sites. The magnitude of these earthquakes arexa0between 2.3 and 7.7 and the hypocentral distance for most of the cases is less than 50xa0km. The predominant period obtained from response spectral ratios is used to classify these sites. It was found that the shape and predominant peaks of the spectra at these sites match with those in Japan, Italy, Iran, and at some of the sites in Europe and the same classification scheme can be applied to Indian strong motion network. We found that the earlier schemes based on description of near-surface geology, geomorphology, and topography were not able to capture the effect of sediment thickness. The sites are classified into seven classes (CL-I to CL-VII) with varying predominant periods and ranges as proposed by Alessandro et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:680-695 2012). The effect of magnitudes and hypocentral distances on the shape and predominant peaks were also studied and found to be very small. The classification scheme is robust and cost-effective and can be used in region-specific attenuation relationships for accounting local site effect.

Assessment of the Relative Largest Earthquake Hazard Level in the NW Himalaya and its Adjacent Region

In the present study, the level of the largest earthquake hazard is assessed in 28 seismic zones of the NW Himalaya and its vicinity, which is a highly seismically active region of the world. Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (hereafter as GIII) is adopted for the evaluation of the largest earthquake magnitudes in these seismic zones. Instead of taking in account any type of Mmax, in the present study we consider the ω value which is the largest earthquake magnitude that a region can experience according to the GIII statistics. A function of the form Θ(ω, RP6.0) is providing in this way a relatively largest earthquake hazard scale defined by the letter K (K index). The return periods for the ω values (earthquake magnitudes) 6 or larger (RP6.0) are also calculated. According to this index, the investigated seismic zones are classified into five groups and it is shown that seismic zones 3 (Quetta of Pakistan), 11 (Hindukush), 15 (northern Pamirs), and 23 (Kangra, Himachal Pradesh of India) correspond to a “very high” K index which is 6.