R. Briston

Privatisation initial public offerings in Malaysia: Initial premium and long-term performance

Abstract This study addresses four major issues related to privatisation initial public offers (PIPOs) and other initial public offers (IPOs) in Malaysia. First, an analysis of initial excess returns suggests that, on average, Malaysian IPOs are underpriced and PIPOs offer significantly higher initial returns than other IPOs. Second, regression based analysis reveals that over-subscription, market volatility, proportion of shares sold, underwriters reputation, and ex ante risk together explain over three-quarters of the variation in the excess returns offered by Malaysian PIPOs. However, this model can only explain 10% and 36% of other IPOs and the whole sample respectively. Third, the analysis of secondary market performance suggests that neither PIPOs nor other IPOs significantly outperform/ underperform the market over three years. Further analysis reveals that the IPOs with higher initial return underperform the market while those with low initial return outperform. Finally, the paper confirms that IPOs underwritten by reputed underwriters are significantly better long-term investments as compared to the IPOs underwritten by less reputed underwriters.

The accuracy of earnings forecasts in IPO prospectuses on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

Abstract This paper examines the accuracy of earnings forecasts made by managers of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs) during the period 1984–1995. It is a mandatory requirement for Malaysian IPOs to furnish earnings forecasts together with the opinions thereon of the auditors and the lead underwriter in their prospectuses. Their accuracy is measured by forecast errors, absolute forecast errors, squared forecast errors and standardised forecast errors. The results suggest that, on average, managers under-forecast earnings by 33.37%. A comparison with the naive no change model in earnings suggests that 96 out of 122 companies outperform this model. A number of company specific characteristics (size, age, forecast interval, gearing, proportion of shares retained by owners, auditor reputation and industry) are tested. The results reveal that both the age and industry classification of the company are statistically significant, and that management earnings forecasts are particularly inaccurate where fi...

Hungarian Privatisation Strategy and Financial Performance of Privatised Companies

This paper examines Hungarian privatisation strategy and the financial performance of privatised enterprises. The results suggest that Hungary has preferred privatisation by direct sales by a considerable margin, but has recently shifted towards share issues. Both types of sale have predominantly been gradual. Subsequent sales, however, confirm the governments intention to sell previously retained shares. An analysis of IPOs during 1990-1998 shows positive initial returns on Privatisation Initial Public Offers (PIPOs) and greater underpricing than for other IPOs. The long term returns of PIPOs are positive and they outperform other IPOs in all periods after the listing. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999.

Privatisation Initial Public Offerings: the Polish Experience

The Polish government has preferred gradual direct sales to privatisation initial public offerings lPIPOsr by a 2.8 to 1 margin. Evidence suggests that the government has attempted to manage the timing of PIPOs. We, however, find no evidence of underpricing of PIPOs to a greater degree than that found for issues in the private sector. Both domestic and international investors in PIPOs earned predominantly positive buy-and-hold returns up to 36 months after listing. The difference between PIPOs and private sector IPOs average returns is statistically significant only for international investors. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003.