R. D. Singh

Modeling of Suspended Sediment Concentration at Kasol in India Using ANN, Fuzzy Logic, and Decision Tree Algorithms

The prediction of the sediment loading generated within a watershed is an important input in the design and management of water resources projects. High variability of hydro-climatic factors with sediment generation makes the modelling of the sediment process cum- bersome and tedious. The methods for the estimation of sediment concentration based on the properties of flow and sediment have limitations attributed to the simplification of important parameters and boundary conditions. Under such circumstances, soft computing approaches have proven to be an efficient tool in modelling the sediment concentration. The focus of this paper is to present the development of models using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with back propagation and Levenberg-Maquardt algorithms, radial basis function (RBF), Fuzzy Logic, and decision tree algorithms such as M5 and REPTree for predicting the suspended sediment concentration at Kasol, upstream of the Bhakra reservoir, located in the Sutlej basin in northern India. The input vector to the various models using different algorithms was derived con- sidering the statistical properties such as auto-correlation function, partial auto-correlation, and cross-correlation function of the time series. It was found that the M5 model performed well compared to other soft computing techniques such as ANN, fuzzy logic, radial basis function, and REPTree investigated in this study, and results of the M5 model indicate that all ranges of sediment concentration values were simulated fairly well. This study also suggests that M5 model trees, which are analogous to piecewise linear functions, have certain advantages over other soft computing techniques because they offer more insight into the generated model, are acceptable to decision makers, and always converge. Further, the M5 model tree offers explicit expressions for use by field engineers. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000445.

Application of ANN, Fuzzy Logic and Decision Tree Algorithms for the Development of Reservoir Operating Rules

Optimal use of scarce water resources is the prime objective for water resources development projects in the developing country like India. Optimal releases have been generally expressed as a function of reservoir state variables and hydrologic inputs by a relationship which ultimately allows the policy/water managers to determine the water to be released as a function of available information. Optimal releases were obtained by using optimal control theory with inflow series and revised reservoir characteristics such as elevation area capacity table, zero elevation level as input in this study. Operating rules for reservoir were developed as a function of demand, water level and inflow. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with back propagation algorithm, Fuzzy Logic and decision tree algorithms such as M5 and REPTree were used for deriving the operating rules using the optimal releases for an irrigation and power supply reservoir, located in northern India. It was found that fuzzy logic model performed well compared to other soft computing techniques such as ANN, M5P and REPTree investigated in this study.

Application of artificial neural network, fuzzy logic and decision tree algorithms for modelling of streamflow at Kasol in India

The prediction of streamflow is required in many activities associated with the planning and operation of the components of a water resources system. Soft computing techniques have proven to be an efficient alternative to traditional methods for modelling qualitative and quantitative water resource variables such as streamflow, etc. The focus of this paper is to present the development of models using multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy logic and decision tree algorithms such as M5 and REPTree for predicting the streamflow at Kasol located at the upstream of Bhakra reservoir in Sutlej basin in northern India. The input vector to the various models using different algorithms was derived considering statistical properties such as auto-correlation function, partial auto-correlation and cross-correlation function of the time series. It was found that REPtree model performed well compared to other soft computing techniques such as MLR, ANN, fuzzy logic, and M5P investigated in this study and the results of the REPTree model indicate that the entire range of streamflow values were simulated fairly well. The performance of the naïve persistence model was compared with other models and the requirement of the development of the naïve persistence model was also analysed by persistence index.

Clinical Presentation and Management of Neonatal Malaria: A Review

The burden of neonatal malaria was thought rare in the past because of presence of protective factors such as maternal antimalarial antibodies, lactoferrin, secretary IgA in human milk and HbF. In endemic areas for malaria, thisxa0group (neonates) needs to be more focused for such infection, as due to difficulty in diagnosis it may be representing only the tip of iceberg. In addition there is little information on the use of artimisinin-based combination therapy in neonates. This review aims to discuss all these aspects, focusing mainly on diagnosis and management of neonatal malaria. The final objective is to emphasize the need to establish management guideline of malaria in this neglected age group.

Effect of micro-environmental factors on natural regeneration of Sal (Shorea robusta)

Micro-environmental factors viz., soil moisture and light intensity are important factors that affect natural regeneration in forests. These factors vary spatially depending on the overhead canopy density of the forest. The present study focused on studying the effect of variation of soil moisture and light intensity on natural regeneration of sal species (Shorea robusta) under different micro-environments due to overhead canopy of varying forest density. Experimental plots of 40m× 40m size were laid under different overhead canopy densities in a small sal forested watershed in the foot hills of Himalayas in Nainital District of Uttarakhand State, India. The plots were monitored on a long term basis for soil moisture at multi depths, light intensity and natural regeneration of sal. The results of the study revealed that the natural regeneration was highest under C1 (up to-0.30) canopy followed by C2 (0.30–0.50), and C3 (0.50–0.70) canopies. The C3 canopy showed the dying back of sal shoots over 4 years of study. The highest R2 value of linear regression between incremental score of plot regeneration and average soil moisture content was obtained as 0.156 for average soil moisture content during non-monsoon months at 100 cm depth. The R2 value between incremental score of plot regeneration and annual average light intensity was obtained as 0.688 which indicated that the regeneration is largely dependent on the light intensity conditions during the year. The multiple linear regression analysis between the incremental score of regeneration and the average light intensity and average soil moisture content revealed that that about 80% of variation in regeneration is explained by both the factors.

Analysis of unusual meteorological conditions that led to recent floods in Bhagirathi basin (Uttarakhand Himalayas)

ABSTRACT The Bhagirathi River that originates from the snout of Gangotri Glacier at an elevation of about 4000 m is traditionally considered as the source of Ganga River. In June 2013, a multi-day cloudburst centred on the North Indian state of Uttarakhand caused devastating floods and landslides which resulted in massive loss of lives and property. This unusual rain event occurred during the tourist season in June, consequently trapping a large number of tourists and vendors in this area. Sudden release of stored water generated floods that created havoc downstream of most of the rivers in this area. This paper presents a description of the meteorological conditions which led to the catastrophic hydrological situation and flash flood as experienced in the large part of Bhagirathi basin in June 2013. The hydro-meteorological and discharge data for 14–18 June 2013 collected at an observatory near the snout of the Gangotri Glacier are analysed. This area normally receives less rainfall; the maximum monthly rainfall for June in previous years hardly exceeded 93 mm, while the total rainfall during this 5-day storm was 178 mm. A sudden increase of water discharge in the river resulted in flooding downstream. Flows at the gauging site peaked at 163 m3 s-1 on 16 June 2013. The mean runoff depths for June varied between 12 and 14 mm, whereas runoff depths recorded up to the study site were much higher, being highest on 16 June 2013. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Viglione

Clinico-Hematological Features and Management Outcome in Neonatal Malaria: A Nine Years Analysis from North India

BACKGROUNDnMalaria is an important cause of death and illness in children worldwide. Most cases of neonatal malaria are misdiagnosed because of lack of specific symptoms and general lack of awareness. Nothing much is known in literature about the hematological changes during malaria infection and outcome of disease in neonates. Neonatal malaria is an underdiagnosed entity. So this hospital based observational study aims to assess diagnostic features of neonatal malaria.nnnMETHODSnFrom August 2004 to August 2013, information of all slide positive for malaria cases aged 0 to 28 days admitted to our pediatric hospital was collected and analysed.nnnRESULTSn28 slide positive cases of neonatal malaria were studied, four out of them were congenital malaria. Fever (93%) was the most common symptom followed by pallor (72%) and diarrhoea (50%). We also found respiratory distress in four (14%) cases. Apart from anemia and atypical lymphocytosis, We also found thrombocytopenia and low hematocrit, MCV and RBC count. Two cases with bleeding manifestations expired during course of treatment.nnnDISCUSSIONnMalaria in the first few months of life can simulate transplacentally or postnatally acquired infection such as TORCH, syphilis, neonatal hepatitis and septicemia all having an important symptom complex of fever jaundice, hepatosplenomegaly and anemia. Although in our cases clinical presentation has been similar to septicemia but culture of blood, CSF and urine were sterile. The dilemma of distinguishing neonatal malaria alone versus neonatal sepsis or both existing does not seem to be easily resolved by the use of clinical features alone. The laboratory diagnosis of parasitemia in neonates require special attention in Giemsa staining as well as the technical skill involved in malaria microscopy because parasite densities are low. So high degree of suspicion is needed to diagnose malaria in newborns presenting with fever and anemia.

Cord blood nucleated red blood cell count as a predictor of long term sequelae in cases of perinatal asphyxia: a one-year follow-up study

Background: Nucleated red blood cells (NRBCs) can be easily found in cord blood and its >20/100 WBCs has been distinguished as a marker of perinatal asphyxia at birth. Authors conducted this study to find out if there exists a relation between NRBCs at birth and its effects on long term neurological outcome in patients of perinatal asphyxia. Methods: This was a prospective longitudinal study conducted in the Department of Pediatrics in collaboration with Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, G.S.V.M. Medical College, Kanpur from December 2014 to September 2016. Results: On assessing the long term neurodevelopmental outcome in newborns with HIE at birth, Authors found that cord blood NRBCs had no direct influence on the final neurodevelopmental outcome at 1 year of life as did HIE staging. Conclusions: Authors propose that cord blood NRBC counts of > 20/100 WBCs is a good predictor of asphyxia at birth but is definitely not an indicator of forth coming developmental delay.

Litter Fall and Its Decomposition in Sapium sebiferum Roxb.: An Invasive Tree Species in Western Himalaya

Recognizing that high litter fall and its rapid decomposition are key traits of invasive species, litter fall and its decay in Sapium sebiferum Roxb. were studied in Palampur. For this, litter traps of dimension 50 × 50 × 50u2009cm3 were placed in under-canopy and canopy gap of the species. Litter fall was monitored monthly and segregated into different components. For litter decay studies, litter bags of dimension 25 × 20u2009cm2 with a mesh size 2u2009mm were used and the same were analyzed on a fortnightly basis. Litter fall in both under-canopy and canopy gap was highest in November (1.16u2009Mgu2009ha−1u2009y−1 in under-canopy and 0.38u2009Mgu2009ha−1u2009y−1 in canopy gap) and lowest during March. Litter production in under-canopy and canopy gap was 4.04u2009Mgu2009ha−1u2009y−1 and 1.87u2009Mgu2009ha−1u2009y−1, respectively. These values are comparable to sal forest (1.7u2009tu2009Cu2009ha−1u2009y−1), chir pine-mixed forest (2.1u2009tu2009Cu2009ha−1u2009y−1), and mixed oak-conifer forest (2.8u2009tu2009Cu2009ha−1u2009y−1) of the Western Himalaya. The decay rate, 0.46% day−1 in under-canopy and 0.48% day−1 in canopy gap, was also fast. Owing to this the species may be able to modify the habitats to its advantage, as has been reported elsewhere.