R. G. Roble

A thermosphere/ionosphere general circulation model with coupled electrodynamics

A new simulation model of upper atmospheric dynamics is presented that includes self-consistent electrodynamic interactions between the thermosphere and ionosphere. This model, which we call the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamic general circulation model (NCAR/TIE-GCM), calculates the dynamo effects of thermospheric winds, and uses the resultant electric fields and currents in calculating the neutral and plasma dynamics. A realistic geomagnetic field geometry is used. Sample simulations for solar maximum equinox conditions illustrate two previously predicted effects of the feedback. Near the magnetic equator, the afternoon uplift of the ionosphere by an eastward electric field reduces ion drag on the neutral wind, so that relatively strong eastward winds can occur in the evening. In addition, a vertical electric field is generated by the low-latitude wind, which produces east-west plasma drifts in the same direction as the wind, further reducing the ion drag and resulting in stronger zonal winds.

Comparative terrestrial planet thermospheres. 3. Solar cycle variation of global structure and winds at solstices

The comparison of planetary upper atmospheres using global databases has entered a new era with the advent of recent aerobraking measurements of the Mars thermosphere [e.g., Keating, et al., 1998a]. The present maturity of available modeling capabilities also permits us to contrast the Earth and Mars thermosphere structures, winds, and controlling processes using global three-dimensional models [e.g., Bougher et al., 1999b]. This present effort focuses upon the comparison of the combined seasonal-solar cycle responses of the thermospheres of Earth and Mars using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermospheric General Circulation Model (TGCM) utility to address the coupled energetics, dynamics, and neutral-ion composition above ∼100 km. Extreme thermospheric conditions are expected at solstices, thereby revealing the changing importance of fundamental physical processes controlling the Earth and Mars thermospheric structures and winds. Seasonal-solar cycle extremes in Mars exobase temperatures are calculated to range from 200 to 380 K, giving rise to maximum horizontal winds of nearly 215 to 400 m/s. Corresponding extremes in Earth exobase temperatures are 700 to 1600 K, with rather small variations in global winds. The orbital eccentricities of Earth and Mars are also shown to drive substantial variations in their thermospheric temperatures. For Mars, dayside exobase temperatures vary by ∼60 K (18%) from aphelion to perihelion during solar maximum conditions. Such large temperature variations strongly impact thermospheric densities and global winds. The corresponding Earth dayside temperatures also vary by 60–80 K between solstices. However, the percent temperature variation (5%) over the Earths orbit and its overall impact on the thermospheric structure and winds are much smaller. Auroral activity may in fact obscure these orbital variations. Changing dust conditions throughout the Martian year modulate the aerosol heating of its lower atmosphere, yielding considerable variability in the height of the subsolar ionospheric peak about its observed seasonal trend (∼115–130 km). Significant further progress in the comparison of Earth and Mars thermospheric features and underlying processes must await expanded Mars global databases expected from Planet-B and Mars Express (2004–2005).

Thermospheric General Circulation with Coupled Dynamics and Composition

Abstract A general circulation model has been developed for the atmosphere above 97 km. It uses a 5° latitude × 5° longitude grid and 24 vertical levels in increments of 0.5 scale height. The prognostic variables are horizontal winds, temperature, and the mass mixing ratios of atomic and molecular oxygen, which are obtained using hydrodynamic equations and which include vertical transport by realistic models of molecular diffusion. All the prognostic variables are in near diffusive equilibrium in the vertical as the top of the model is approached. Realistic ion drag is included in the model equations for horizontal winds, including the rapid polar drifts of magnetic field fines due to magnetospheric convection. Excellent agreement is achieved between the calculated and observed global averaged composition, provided a reasonable amount of vertical eddy mixing is included in the compositional equations over the lowest model scale height. Calculations are carried out for solar minimum equinox conditions. The...

Review of mesospheric temperature trends

In recent times it has become increasingly clear that releases of trace gases from human activity have a potential for causing change in the upper atmosphere. However, our knowledge of systematic changes and trends in the temperature of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is relatively limited compared to the Earths lower atmosphere, and not much effort has been made to synthesize these results so far. In this article, a comprehensive review of long-term trends in the temperature of the region from 50 to 100 km is made on the basis of the available up-to-date understanding of measurements and model calculations. An objective evaluation of the available data sets is attempted, and important uncertainly factors are discussed. Some natural variability factors, which are likely to play a role in modulating temperature trends, are also briefly touched upon. There are a growing number of experimental results centered on, or consistent with, zero temperature trend in the mesopause region (80–100 km). The most reliable data sets show no significant trend but an uncertainty of at least 2 K/decade. On the other hand, a majority of studies indicate negative trends in the lower and middle mesosphere with an amplitude of a few degrees (2–3 K) per decade. In tropical latitudes the cooling trend increases in the upper mesosphere. The most recent general circulation models indicate increased cooling closer to both poles in the middle mesosphere and a decrease in cooling toward the summer pole in the upper mesosphere. Quantitatively, the simulated cooling trend in the middle mesosphere produced only by CO 2 increase is usually below the observed level. However, including other greenhouse gases and taking into account a “thermal shrinking” of the upper atmosphere result in a cooling of a few degrees per decade. This is close to the lower limit of the observed nonzero trends. In the mesopause region, recent model simulations produce trends, usually below 1 K/decade, that appear to be consistent with most observations in this region

Cooling of the upper atmosphere by enhanced greenhouse gases — modelling of thermospheric and ionospheric effects

Abstract The concentrations of “greenhouse gases” — carbon dioxide and methane in particular — in the middle atmosphere are expected to double by the mid-21st century. This should lead to “global greenhouse cooling” of the upper atmosphere. Using the NCAR Thermosphere/Ionosphere General Circulation Model, we predict that (depending on location and the phase of the solar cycle) the thermospheric temperature will be lowered by 30–40 K and the air density at heights of 200–300 km will be reduced by 20–40%, thus increasing the orbital lifetimes of satellites. The height of the ionospheric F2-layer peak will drop on average by about 15 km, with some effect on radio propagation, though the F2-layer critical frequency will hardly be affected.

Diurnal nonmigrating tides from TIMED Doppler Interferometer wind data : Monthly climatologies and seasonal variations

[1] TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI) measurements of zonal and meridional winds in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere are analyzed for diurnal nonmigrating tides (June 2002 to June 2005). Climatologies of monthly mean amplitudes and phases for seven tidal components are presented at altitudes between 85 and 105 km and latitudes between 45°S and 45°N (westward propagating wave numbers 2, 3, and 4; the standing diurnal tide; and eastward propagating wave numbers 1, 2, and 3). The observed seasonal variations agree well with 1991-1994 UARS results at 95 km. Comparisons between the TIDI results and global scale wave model (GSWM) and thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) tidal predictions indicate that the large eastward propagating wave number 3 amplitude is driven by tropical tropospheric latent heat release alone. In contrast, latent heating and planetary wave/ migrating tidal interactions are equally important to westward 2 and standing diurnal tidal forcing. There is good quantitative agreement between TIDI and the model predictions during equinox, but the latter tend to underestimate the westward 2 and standing diurnal tide during solstice. Neither model reproduces the observed seasonal variations of the eastward propagating components.

Observations and theory of the formation of stable auroral red arcs

A population of protons with energy of some tens of keV, called the ring current, is found near the equatorial region of the magnetosphere at several earth radii. During the main phase of geomagnetic storms the ring current shifts toward lower L values into the region of the plasmapause, which is characterized by steep gradients in the plasma density. This interaction together with an anisotropic pitch angle distribution leads to ring current instability and the growth of ion cyclotron wave turbulence. As wave energy is dissipated in the ambient electron gas by Landau damping, the plasmapause electron temperature is raised to a few electron volts, and a substantial temperature gradient is created with respect to the ionosphere. The energy transferred to the ionosphere by pitch angle scattering in the low collision frequency region and by heat conduction in the collision-dominated regime raises the ionospheric electron temperature to several thousand degrees. Therefore an appreciable number of electrons in the high-energy tail of the Maxwellian distribution, i.e., electrons with energy greater than 2 eV, exist in the F region of the ionosphere at about 400 km, where atomic oxygen is the dominant neutral gas constituent. Two eV is the threshold for excitation of oxygen atoms to the metastable ¹D level, and these O(¹D) atoms emit 6300-A radiation, the signature of stable auroral red (SAR) arcs. Although the energy input rate required to produce electron temperatures sufficient to cause average SAR arcs is less than 0.1 erg cm−2 s−1, the energy radiated in the red line is only about 0.003 erg cm−2 s−1. Thus an SAR arc is an optical manifestation of a slow release of energy from the magnetosphere during a geomagnetic storm. Energetically it is small in comparison with high-latitude auroral processes.

Simulation of the pre‐reversal enhancement in the low latitude vertical ion drifts

Low latitude F region ion motions exhibit strong seasonal and solar cycle dependences. The pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) in the vertical ion drifts is a particularly well-known low latitude electrodynamic feature, exhibited as a sharp upward spike in the velocity shortly after local sunset, which remains poorly understood theoretically. The PRE has been successfully simulated for the first time by a general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/ionosphere/electrodynamic general circulation model (TIEGCM). The TIEGCM reproduces the zonal and vertical plasma drifts for equinox, June, and December for low, medium, and high solar activity. The crucial parameter in the model to produce the PRE is the nighttime E region electron densities: densities ≥ 104 cm−3 preclude the PRE development by short-circuiting the F region dynamo. The E region semidiurnal 2,2 tidal wave largely determines the magnitude and phase of the daytime F region drifts.

Modeling diurnal tidal variability with the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

We used the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) to calculate the variability of the migrating diurnal tide in a January through December 1993 simulation. While TIME-GCM captures the salient features of the latitudinal, altitudinal, and seasonal variability of the migrating diurnal tide, upper mesospheric meridional wind amplitudes are somewhat smaller than those that have been observed from the ground and space. The discrepancies may be attributable to unresolved uncertainties in tidal forcing and/or dissipation in the TIME-GCM. However, our diagnostic simulation suggests that the nonlinear interactions between the migrating diurnal tide and stationary planetary wave 1 produce measurable nonmigrating diurnal tidal components that modulate migrating diurnal tidal amplitudes and account for significant variability in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere.

Magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐thermosphere coupling: Effect of neutral winds on energy transfer and field‐aligned current

The assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) algorithm has been applied to derive the realistic time-dependent large-scale global distributions of the ionospheric convection and particle precipitation during a recent Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) campaign period: March 28-29, 1992. The AMIE outputs are then used as the inputs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model to estimate the electrodynamic quantities in the ionosphere and thermosphere. It is found that the magnetospheric electromagnetic energy dissipated in the high-latitude ionosphere is mainly converted into Joule heating, with only a small fraction (6%) going to acceleration of thermospheric neutral winds. Our study also reveals that the thermospheric winds can have significant influence on the ionospheric electrodynamics. On the average for these 2 days, the neutral winds have approximately a 28% negative effect on Joule heating and approximately a 27% negative effect on field-aligned currents. The field-aligned currents driven by the neutral wind flow in the opposite direction to those driven by the plasma convection. On the average, the global electromagnetic energy input is about 4 times larger than the particle energy input.