R.P. Roetter

Integration of Systems Network (SysNet) tools for regional land use scenario analysis in Asia

Abstract This paper introduces the approach of the Systems research Network (SysNet) for land use planning in tropical Asia with a focus on its main scientific–technical output: the development of the land use planning and analysis system (LUPAS) and its component models. These include crop simulation models, expert systems, GIS, and multiple goal linear programming (MGLP) models for land evaluation and optimization. LUPAS was designed as a decision support system (DSS) for strategic land use planning. Integration of LUPAS components in four case studies was performed in a network with national research teams and local stakeholders. This network allowed iterative evaluation and refinement of LUPAS for scenario analysis on technical and policy changes. Several interactive sessions with stakeholders led to more detail in scenarios (goals and constraints), model features and databases. To facilitate negotiation among stakeholders, the MGLP user interface (UI) was developed. In interactive sessions, goal restrictions are tightened to quantify trade-offs between conflicting goals. Choice and degree of tightening reflect the specific priorities for sustainable land use. The development of LUPAS is exemplified for one case study, Ilocos Norte, Philippines. Weak points of the system include inadequate spatial differentiation of socio-economic characteristics, scarce database for quantifying perennials and mixed cropping systems, and insufficient consideration of long-term effects of production technologies on resource quality. However, a promising perspective for effective policy support lies in the possible link of the regional LUPAS approach with farm household models.

Science for agriculture and rural development in low-income countries

Preface, Executive Summary, List of Abbreviations. 1. Agriculture in a dynamic world, R.P. Roetter, H. Van Keulen, J. Verhagen and M. Kuiper. 2. Historical context of agricultural development, H. Van Keulen. 3. Food security, R.P. Roetter and H. Van Keulen. 4. Agriculture and environment, J. Verhagen, H. Wosten and A. De Jager. 5. Rural livelihoods: Interplay between farm activities, non-farm activities and the resource base, M. Kuiper, G. Meijerink and D. Eaton. 6. Lessons learned, R.P. Roetter, M. Kuiper, H. Van Keulen, J. Verhagen and G. Meijerink. 7. Project assessments, A. De Jager, C. Ritsema, M. Mosugu, G. Meijerink, P. Van den Brink, H. Van den Bosch, E. Van der Elsen, R.P. Roetter, S. Van Wijk, S. Verzandvoort-Van Dijck, C.A. Van Diepen and B. Kamphuis. Project NUTSAL, Project EroChinut, Project PIMEA, Project INMASP, Project MAMAS, Project EROAHI, Project Himalaya, Project IRMLA, Project VEGSYS, Project VINVAL, Project RMO-Beijing, Project SEARUSYN

Combining farm and regional level modelling for Integrated Resource Management in East and South-east Asia

Abstract Currently, in many of the highly productive lowland areas of East and South-east Asia a trend to further intensification and diversification of agricultural land use can be observed. Growing economies and urbanization also increase the claims on land and water by non-agricultural uses. As a result, decisions related to the management and planning of scarce resources become increasingly complex. Technological innovations at the field/farm level are necessary but not sufficient – changes in resource use at regional scale will also be essential. To support decision-making in such situations, we advocate a multi-scale modelling approach embedded in a sound participatory process. To this end, the Integrated Resource Management and Land use Analysis (IRMLA) Project is developing an analytical framework and methods for resource use analysis and planning, for four sites in Asia. In the envisaged multi-scale approach, integration of results from field, farm, district and provincial level analysis is based on interactive multiple goal linear programming (IMGLP), farm household modelling (FHM), production ecological concepts and participatory techniques. The approach comprises the following steps: (i) inventory/quantification of current land use systems, resource availability, management practices and policy views, (ii) analysis of alternative, innovative land use systems/technologies, (iii) exploration of the opportunities and limitations to change resource use at regional scale under alternative future scenarios, (iv) modelling decision behaviour of farmers and identification of feasible policy interventions, and (v) synthesis of results from farm to regional level for negotiation of the most promising options by a stakeholder platform. In the current paper, the operationalisation of dual-scale analysis is illustrated by the outputs (development scenarios, promising policy measures and innovative production systems) from various component models for the case study Ilocos Norte, Philippines. An approach is discussed for the integration of results from the different model components at two different decision making levels (farm and province).

Urban and peri-urban agricultural production in Beijing municipality and its impact on water quality

This paper reviews water use and water resource issues in Beijing Municipality, the main trends in the agricultural production systems in and around the city with respect to land use, input use, production and economic role, and the impacts of agricultural activities on water quality. Rapid urbanization and strong intensification of agricultural production have meant that the quantity and quality of available water resources have become matters of concern. The agricultural sector still has a major role in supplying the municipality’s population with food products, but it is also a major water user and has contributed to large gaps between water supply and demand and to high levels of water pollution. Among the main changes in agriculture in the last decade are the loss of arable land to urbanization, the rapid reduction in the area under grain, and the rapid increase in livestock numbers and in areas under vegetables and orchards. Intensive crop and vegetable production and intensive livestock rearing are major water polluters. The paper also points to some measures being taken to address these problems.

Agriculture in a Dynamic World

Through a combination of technological progress and economic policy convergence, globalization has markedly changed the setting for agriculture during the last decade. Through trade and international agreements, global changes increasingly affect development options for both industrialized and developing economies. At national level, continued population growth, expanding economies and urbanization have, especially in densely-populated areas, led to unprecedented competition for land and water resources between agriculture and other uses such as infrastructure, urban, industry and recreation/nature. This challenges the agricultural sector to produce sufficient, more diverse and safe food, fibre products and feedstocks for biofuel in a sustainable manner. This has to be achieved in an increasingly competitive and globalizing economy. Meeting these challenges requires significant changes in the way agriculture and the value chain are organized. Some of the major changes affecting agriculture are: