R.-S. Kim

The 17 March 2015 storm: the associated magnetic flux rope structure and the storm development

The objective of this study is (1) to determine the magnetic cloud (MC) structure associated with the 17 March 2015 storm and (2) to gain an insight into how the storm developed responding to the solar wind conditions. First, we search MC geometries which can explain the observed solar wind magnetic fields by fitting to both cylindrical and toroidal flux rope models. Then, we examine how the resultant MC geometries can be connected to the solar source region to find out the most plausible model for the observed MC. We conclude that the observations are most consistently explained by a toroidal flux rope with the torus plane nearly parallel to the ecliptic plane. It is emphasized that the observations are characterized by the peculiar spacecraft crossing through the MC, in that the magnetic fields to be observed are southward throughout the passage. For understanding of the storm development, we first estimate the injection rate of the storm ring current from the observed Dst variation. Then, we derive an expression to calculate the estimated injection rate from the observed solar wind variations. The point of the method is to evaluate the injection rate by the convolution of the dawn-to-dusk electric field in the solar wind and a response function. By using the optimum response function thus determined, we obtain a modeled Dst variation from the solar wind data, which is in good agreement with the observed Dst variation. The agreement supports the validity of our method to derive an expression for the ring current injection rate as a function of the solar wind variation.Graphical abstract.

Coronal electron density distributions estimated from CMEs, DH type II radio bursts, and polarized brightness measurements

We determine coronal electron density distributions (CEDDs) by analyzing decahectometric (DH) type II observations under two assumptions. DH type II bursts are generated by either (1) shocks at the leading edges of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or (2) CME shock-streamer interactions. Among 399 Wind/WAVES type II bursts (from 1997 to 2012) associated with SOHO/LASCO (Large Angle Spectroscopic COronagraph) CMEs, we select 11 limb events whose fundamental and second harmonic emission lanes are well identified. We determine the lowest frequencies of fundamental emission lanes and the heights of leading edges of their associated CMEs. We also determine the heights of CME shock-streamer interaction regions. The CEDDs are estimated by minimizing the root-mean-square error between the heights from the CME leading edges (or CME shock-streamer interaction regions) and DH type II bursts. We also estimate CEDDs of seven events using polarized brightness (pB) measurements. We find the following results. Under the first assumption, the average of estimated CEDDs from 3 to 20 Rs is about 5-fold Saitos model (NSaito(r)). Under the second assumption, the average of estimated CEDDs from 3 to 10 Rs is 1.5-fold NSaito(r). While the CEDDs obtained from pB measurements are significantly smaller than those based on the first assumption and CME flank regions without streamers, they are well consistent with those on the second assumption. Our results show that not only about 1-fold NSaito(r) is a proper CEDD for analyzing DH type II bursts but also CME shock-streamer interactions could be a plausible origin for generating DH type II bursts.

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz ≤ −5 nT or Ey ≥ 3 mV/m for t≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than −50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

A refined classification of SPEs based on the multienergy channel observations

We have investigated characteristics of solar proton events (SPEs) and their association with other types of solar eruption using 42 SPEs observed with SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory/Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron detector from 1997 to 2012. A velocity dispersion analysis was performed to correctly estimate the onset times of proton flux increase at the solar vicinity. These SPE onset times were compared with those of associated flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and interplanetary type II radio bursts. We found that (i) the proton flux of 13 SPEs (31%) increase during the flare X-ray intensity is increasing, and the rest 29 SPEs (69%) show onsets well coincident with the first appearance of CMEs in Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph field of view. (ii) All flare-associated SPEs show the flux enhancements starting from the lower energy, while the CME-associated SPEs show the flux enhancements starting from either the higher or the lower energies. In the other events, the flux enhancement occurs simultaneously at all energies within 10 min. (iii) For the former, large flux enhancements occur in a short time, while the latter tend to show relatively weak and slow flux enhancements. Our classification uses two criteria, SPE onset timing relative to flares and energy-dependent flux enhancement, unlike the conventional classification of SPEs based on whether the flux time profile is impulsive or gradual. Nevertheless our classification scheme refines the distinction between the flare-associated SPEs and the CME-associated SPEs in terms of the onset timing. Additional information on the proton acceleration as implied by the energy-dependent patterns of flux enhancement is briefly discussed.

Origin of two extreme solar particle events

We performed an analysis of high-energy particle emission from the Sun in two extreme solar particle events observed even with ground-based neutron monitors (NMs). We model particle transport and interactions from near-Sun source through the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere and atmosphere in order to make a deep analysis of the events. The time profile of the proton source at the Sun is deduced and compared with observed electromagnetic emissions. Several complementary to each other data sets are studied jointly with the broadband dynamic radio spectra, EUV images as well as other data available for both events. We find a common scenario for both eruptions, including the flare’s dual impulsive phase, the coronal mass ejection (CME)-launch-associated burst and the late low-frequency type III radio bursts at the time of the relativistic proton injection into the interplanetary medium. The analysis supports the idea that the two considered events start with emission of relativistic protons previously accelerated during the flare and CME launch, then trapped in large-scale magnetic loops and later released by the expanding CME.