R.S. Morris

The epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis infections

Mycobacterium bovis has an exceptionally wide host range, but until recent years there was little concern about infection in species other than cattle and man. Diversification of farming enterprises has led to cognizance of the need for control in other domestic animals, notably deer. There has also been recognition that self-maintaining infection is present in wildlife hosts in some countries--notably the European badger in the United Kingdom and Ireland, the Australian brush-tailed possum in New Zealand, and various species of ungulates in limited areas of a number of countries. Although transmission of M. bovis can occur by a number of different routes, control measures imposed on cattle and to a lesser extent on other species have reduced a number of the routes to insignificance. Hence the vast preponderance of transmission within host species is now by the airborne route, and predominantly between species as well. Transmission of infection from badgers to cattle may be an exception, with evidence remaining equivocal about the relative importance of pasture contamination by excretion in badger urine and airborne transmission. In general, contamination of feed and pasture appears to be unimportant in transmission of the disease, because survival times of infective doses of organisms on fomites are relatively short under realistic conditions and because animals are not commonly exposed to a dose high enough to be infective by the alimentary route. Infection through the oro-pharyngeal mucous membrane may be significant, although the infective dose for this route is not known. While many species of animals can become infected with M. bovis, only a few act as maintenance hosts and the rest are spillover hosts in which infection is not self-maintaining. With the exception of cattle and deer, other species have become maintenance hosts only within part of their ecological range. For both badgers and possums, maintenance of infection within a local population is due to pseudo-vertical transmission from mother to young, and horizontal transmission linked to breeding activity. Transmission from possums to domestic animals appears to occur mainly during atypical behavioural interactions between the species, and this may well be important for badgers as well. Difficulties in controlling the disease adequately in domestic animals generally result from administrative problems since the necessary technical procedures are available and have been shown to be effective. Where there is interplay between infection in wildlife and domestic animals, eradication of the disease becomes impractical.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Concepts for risk-based surveillance in the field of veterinary medicine and veterinary public health: Review of current approaches

BackgroundEmerging animal and zoonotic diseases and increasing international trade have resulted in an increased demand for veterinary surveillance systems. However, human and financial resources available to support government veterinary services are becoming more and more limited in many countries world-wide. Intuitively, issues that present higher risks merit higher priority for surveillance resources as investments will yield higher benefit-cost ratios. The rapid rate of acceptance of this core concept of risk-based surveillance has outpaced the development of its theoretical and practical bases.DiscussionThe principal objectives of risk-based veterinary surveillance are to identify surveillance needs to protect the health of livestock and consumers, to set priorities, and to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. An important goal is to achieve a higher benefit-cost ratio with existing or reduced resources. We propose to define risk-based surveillance systems as those that apply risk assessment methods in different steps of traditional surveillance design for early detection and management of diseases or hazards. In risk-based designs, public health, economic and trade consequences of diseases play an important role in selection of diseases or hazards. Furthermore, certain strata of the population of interest have a higher probability to be sampled for detection of diseases or hazards. Evaluation of risk-based surveillance systems shall prove that the efficacy of risk-based systems is equal or higher than traditional systems; however, the efficiency (benefit-cost ratio) shall be higher in risk-based surveillance systems.SummaryRisk-based surveillance considerations are useful to support both strategic and operational decision making. This article highlights applications of risk-based surveillance systems in the veterinary field including food safety. Examples are provided for risk-based hazard selection, risk-based selection of sampling strata as well as sample size calculation based on risk considerations.

Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001

A spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease was used in March and early April 2001 to evaluate alternative control policies for the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Control policies were those in operation from March 20, 2001, and comprised a ban on all animal movements from February 23, 2001, and a stamping-out policy. Each simulation commenced with the known population of infected farms on April 10, 2001, and ran for 200 days. For the control policy which best approximated that actually implemented from late March, the model predicted an epidemic of approximately 1800 to 1900 affected farms, and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001. This policy included the slaughter-out of infected farms within 24 hours, slaughter of about 1-3 of the surrounding farms per infected farm within a further 48 hours, and minimal interfarm movements of susceptible animals. Delays in the slaughter of animals on infected farms beyond 24 hours after diagnosis slightly increased the epidemic size, and failure to achieve pre-emptive slaughter on an adequate number of at-risk farms substantially increased the expected size of the epidemic. Vaccination of up to three of the most outbreak-dense areas carried out in conjunction with the adopted control policy reduced the predicted size of the epidemic by less than 100 farms. Vaccination of buffer zones (designed to apply available vaccine and manpower as effectively as possible) carried out in place of the adopted control policy allowed the disease to spread out of control, producing an epidemic involving over 6000 farms by October 2001, with no prospect of immediate eradication.

Social-network analysis of Mycobacterium bovis transmission among captive brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula)

Wild brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) are the main source of Mycobacterium bovis infection for New Zealand livestock. The disease is spread principally by infectious aerosol; therefore, social interactions determine disease transmission. In captive possums, den-sharing behaviour provided the greatest risk of tuberculosis transmission between animals. Den sharing between individual possums was used as the basic measurement for quantifying close proximity between animals over extended periods. Social-network analysis (SNA) was used to model patterns of social behaviour and to predict tuberculosis transmission. There was great diversity between groups in their social behaviour-but there were consistent trends in the SNA measures (closeness and flow-betweenness). With time, the social distance between possums in the same group increased, the social network became more homogeneous and the possums less differentiated from each other. Alteration of the physical environment of the pens (such as changing the number of dens or relocating the group to a new pen) had an inconsistent effect on social structure when comparing different groups. During the infection-transmission study, the possums that became infected had greater closeness and flow-betweenness scores than those that remained free of infection. Although standard statistical descriptive measures (such as the number of partners and the frequency of den-sharing events) were greater for the infected than the infection-free possums, the SNA-specific measures were more precise and could be compared across time and between groups.

Directions and issues in bovine tuberculosis epidemiology and control in New Zealand

Current knowledge on the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand is reviewed, with emphasis on recent findings. It would appear that the epidemiology of the disease is determined by the behaviour of both wildlife and domestic stock, and environmental influences on the development of the infectious state in wildlife. The central cause of persistent disease nationally remains the possum, although other species may play a subsidiary role locally. Current understanding provides much improved prospects for control, which will be based on implementing individual farm control strategies to complement current regional control, with additional later prospects of vaccination of wildlife and possibly reproductive control of possums.

Environmental and behavioural factors affecting the prevalence of foot lameness in New Zealand dairy herds — a case-control study

A case-control study of environmental and behavioural factors influencing foot lameness was undertaken on 62 dairy herds comprising an average of 185 milking cows in Taranaki, New Zealand. Thirty two case herds were identified as having had at least 10 per cent of the cows lame during the milking season in which the herd was studied, and thirty control herds were selected on the basis that no more than 3 per cent of cows in these herds had been lame per year for at least two years immediately prior to investigation. Each herd was visited at both a morning and an afternoon milking, and 58 risk factors were measured between the time the farmer began to assemble the cows for milking and the completion of milking. Comparison of single variables between case and control herds identified 24 which showed differences (p<0.10). These variables were then subjected to stepwise multivariate logistic regression, and statistically significant variables in this analysis were used to create a tentative path diagram of possible causal web relationships between the various risk factors and the outcome variable, the lameness prevalence level. Information from a review of the published literature was used to include further variables to the 24 into the initial (or null hypothesis) path model. Logistic path analysis was then used to eliminate non-significant paths from the diagram, leaving 19 arrows joining 13 variables in the final path diagram, compared with 33 joining 20 variables in the initial version. The most influential variables in explaining variation between case and control herds were the average level of maintenance of the track and the degree of patience shown by the farmer in bringing the cows in for milking. Overall, factors associated with the movement of animals to the milking shed explained 40 per cent of the variation (deviance) with regard to the lameness prevalence level. Risk factors associated with characteristics of the milking process explain 24 per cent, and risk factors associated with characteristics of the cows in the herd explain 9.5 per cent. Recommendations are made on management changes which deserve further investigation as ways of reducing lameness problems in dairy herds.

Profiling the New Zealand Thoroughbred racing industry. 2. Conditions interfering with training and racing

Abstract AIM: To describe and enumerate conditions that interrupted training and racing in a population of Thoroughbred racehorses in New Zealand. METHODS: A longitudinal study design was used to collect data on horses training under the care of 20 licensed racehorse trainers from venues in the mid to lower regions of the North Island between October 1997 and July 2000. Incidence rates were reported for first and second occurrences for different categories of musculoskeletal injury (MSI), and first occurrences of upper and lower respiratory tract disease, using training days as time-at-risk. The proportion of horses that retired or died due to MSI, respiratory tract or miscellaneous conditions was used to estimate risk of exit for each type of event. Duration of training preparation, starts per 100 training days, and proportion of starts that ended in first, second or third place, were calculated for horses at risk for first MSI, and all subsequent MSIs. In training preparations that had at least one start and that ended in MSI, the cumulative percentage of MSIs by day of diagnosis was reported for 0–21 days after the last start in the preparation. RESULTS: Horses (n=1,571) were followed during 3,333 training preparations and 392,290 training days. Events associated with the end of a training preparation or spell period included MSI (n=834), respiratory event (RE; n=165), miscellaneous event (ME; n=58), and voluntary retirements (n=360). Causes of MSI included lameness (n=400), shin soreness (n=207), tendon and ligament conditions (n=98), injury or laceration (n=56), fractures (n=55), and back disorders (n=18). MSIs involved the limbs in 97% of cases, and the lower limbs up to the carpus or hock in the fore- and hindlimbs, respectively, in 81% of cases. Most (93%) lower limb conditions involved a forelimb while 70% of MSIs that involved structures above the carpus or hock involved a hindlimb. Incidence rates (IRs) are reported for each age group for first and second occurrences of MSI, and first occurrence of upper and lower respiratory tract disease. The risk of MSI was higher in horses that had incurred one previous MSI (RR 1.4, 95% CI=1.2–1.7; p>0.001) than in horses without any previous MSI. The proportion of horses that exited due to death or retirement varied with the type of injury, and the highest proportion was associated with recurrent fractures, and tendon and ligament injuries (46.2 and 44.4%, respectively). The overall IR of horses exiting the study due to retirement or death increased with increasing age, and was higher in females than males for horses aged 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 years. A reduction in the number of starts per 100 training days was observed in horses aged ≥5 years when returning to training after an initial MSI (p=0.004). Male horses of all age groups and females younger than 4 years had shorter median training preparations (p>0.05) when returning to training after an initial MSI compared with preparations at risk for a first occurrence of MSI. Between 27 and 62% of cases of MSI that occurred in training preparations after at least one start were reported on the day of the last start, and the remainder were reported in the days to weeks following the last start of that preparation. CONCLUSION: Incidence rates, and proportions of affected horses that retired or died as a result of injury or disorder varied with type of injury and age of horse. Horses returning to training after an initial MSI were at higher risk of subsequent MSIs and showed changes in duration of training preparations, but little change in starts per 100 training days or probability of placing in each start. MSIs in racing horses were less likely to be reported on the day of a race than at other times in the training preparation for all ages except 2-year-olds.

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND PATHOGENESIS OF MYCOBACTERIUM BOVIS INFECTION OF RED DEER(CERVUS ELAPHUS) IN NEW ZEALAND

AIMS This study was initiated to investigate aspects of the epidemiology, pathogenesis and transmission of tuberculosis in wild red deer, with the aim of determining whether this species may be considered a reservoir host of Mycobacterium bovis in New Zealand. METHOD One hundred and six wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) carcasses from the Castlepoint and Hauhungaroa Range areas, which are endemic for bovine tuberculosis, were examined for the presence of M. bovis infection. Samples were also examined from 46 skin test-positive farmed deer killed at two deer slaughter premises. Where possible, a standard set of tissues and excretion site samples was collected for mycobacteriological examination. RESULTS Fifty-eight infected deer were identified, and of these 28% showed no gross lesions. The prevalence of tuberculosis confirmed by culture in the wild deer was 32%. Only one of 18 deer younger than 1 year was infected. Mature deer (>2 years) were 12 times more likely to be infected than those under 1 year of age. Infected older deer were less likely to show typical gross lesions than younger animals. Mycobacterium bovis was isolated from the oropharyngeal tonsil of 34 of 56 (61%) of the infected deer, and this was the most commonly infected site. Gross lesions were found in 18 of the 34 infected tonsils and only one of these showed a purulent tonsillitis. Mycobacterium bovis was recovered from four of 53 nasopharyngeal tonsils, four of 53 oropharyngeal swabs, one of 53 tracheal and nasal swabs, and one of 46 faecal samples, but not from any urine specimens. CONCLUSION These findings suggest that significant bacillary excretion from infected deer was uncommon, and is more likely to occur in severely affected animals. This study has confirmed the importance of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissues (MALT), particularly the oropharyngeal tonsil, in the pathogenesis of tuberculosis in deer. The findings justify investigation of the hypotheses that the prevalence of tuberculosis in wild deer in New Zealand is high due to transmission of infection from possums, and that in the absence of an infected possum population, the prevalence of tuberculosis in deer is likely to be low, and spatially patchy. CLINICAL RELEVANCE The results suggest that about one quarter of infected deer show no detectable gross lesions. This implies that many infected carcasses may enter the food chain unrecognised and that the estimated sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests may be erroneous if there is a difference in test performance between those conducted on deer with or without gross lesions. Diagnostic sensitivity following slaughter may be improved by routine culture of oropharyngeal tonsils and careful examination of lungs for adhesions and small subpleural tubercles.

Risk factors for injury to the superficial digital flexor tendon and suspensory apparatus in Thoroughbred racehorses in New Zealand

Abstract AIM: To investigate risk factors for injury to the superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) and suspensory apparatus (SA) of the forelimbs in Thoroughbred racehorses in New Zealand. METHODS: Poisson and negative binomial regression, with exposure time represented by cumulative training days for each horse, were used to relate explanatory variables to the incidence rate (IR) of cases of inflammation of the SDFT (n=51), and injuries involving the SA (n=48) in a population of 1,571 commercially-trained racehorses over 554,745 study days. Only the first occurrence of an injury for any one horse was eligible for inclusion. Separate analyses were run for data from horses in training regardless of whether they had started in a trial or race, and using a subset of these data restricted to those preparations associated with at least one start in a trial or race. Results were reported as incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Male horses had a higher risk of injury to the SA (IRR 2.57; p=0.005) and tended to have a higher risk of injury to the SDFT (IRR 1.74; p=0.09) than female horses. Increasing age was associated with increased risk of injury. Horses aged 4 and ≥5 years were 6.76 (p<0.001) and 15.26 (p<0.001) times more likely to incur injury to the SDFT, and 2.91 (p=0.02) and 3.54 (p=0.005) times more likely to incur injury to the SA, respectively, than 2-year-olds. Horses were more likely to suffer an injury to the SDFT or SA in a training preparation that was not associated with any starts in official trials or races compared with those preparations that were associated with more than one start (p<0.001), and more likely to injure the SA compared with preparations containing one start (p=0.03). The IR of injury to the SDFT tended to be lower between November–January (IRR 0.78; p=0.08) and February-April (IRR 0.75; p=0.08) compared with August–October. Incidence of injury to the SDFT or SA was not associated with the cumulative distance raced in the last 30 days of a training preparation. CONCLUSION: This study identified risk factors for injury to the SDFT and SA in Thoroughbred racehorses in New Zealand. Injuries were more likely in males, older horses and in horses in training preparations without any starts. There was no evidence of association between injury and cumulative high-speed exercise.

A study of the environmental survival of Mycobacterium bovis on a farm in New Zealand

Mycobacterium bovis organisms absorbed on cotton ribbons were placed in different natural habitats on a farm in New Zealand. Mycobacterium bovis was not re-isolated from ribbons placed on pasture after 4 days. Survival on ribbons was longest in brushtail possum dens, where the maximum period of survival in dens was less than 7 days in summer and greater than 14 days but less than 28 days in winter and spring. The maximum period of survival on a forest floor was intermediate between pasture and dens less than 4 days in summer and greater than 14 days but less than 28 days in winter. The overall probability of survival was influenced by season and was shortest in summer and longest in spring and winter. Survival time increased as minimum daily temperatures decreased. These studies showed there was a relatively short period of survival of M. bovis outside hosts and support a conclusion that environmental contamination of pasture, particularly in summer months, may be relatively unimportant in the epidemiology of tuberculosis in cattle, deer and possums.