R. T. Wetherald

Cloud Feedback in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: An Update

Six years ago, we compared the climate sensitivity of 19 atmospheric general circulation models and found a roughly threefold variation among the models; most of this variation was attributed to differences in the models depictions of cloud feedback. In an update of this comparison, current models showed considerably smaller differences in net cloud feedback, with most producing modest values. There are, however, substantial differences in the feedback components, indicating that the models still have physical disagreements.

Interpretation of Snow-Climate Feedback as Produced by 17 General Circulation Models

Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer Earth will have less snow cover, resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models, for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change, suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models, ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others.

Some results from an intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

Some climatological information from 14 atmospheric general circulation models is presented and compared in order to assess the ability of a broad group of models to simulate current climate. The quantities considered are cross sections of temperature, zonal wind, and meridional stream function together with latitudinal distributions of mean sea level pressure and precipitation rate. The nature of the deficiencies in the simulated climates that are common to all models and those which differ among models is investigated; the general improvement in the ability of models to simulate certain aspects of the climate is shown; consideration is given to the effect of increasing resolution on simulated climate; and approaches to understanding and reducing model deficiencies are discussed. The information presented here is a subset of a more voluminous compilation which is available in report form (Boer et al., 1991). This report contains essentially the same text, but results from all 14 models are presented together with additional results in the form of geographical distributions of surface variables and certain difference statistics.

Intercomparison and interpretation of surface energy fluxes in atmospheric general circulation models

We have analyzed responses of the surface energy budgets and hydrologic cycles of 19 atmospheric general circulation models to an imposed, globally uniform sea surface temperature perturbation of 4 K. The responses of the simulated surface energy budgets are extremely diverse and are closely linked to the responses of the simulated hydrologic cycles. The response of the net surface energy flux is not controlled by cloud effects; instead, it is determined primarily by the response of the latent heat flux. The prescribed warming of the oceans leads to major increases in the atmospheric water vapor content and the rates of evaporation and precipitation. The increased water vapor amount drastically increases the downwelling infrared radiation at the Earths surface, but the amount of the change varies dramatically from one model to another.

Uncertainties in Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

Global warming caused by an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, is the direct result of greenhouse gas—induced radiative forcing. When a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is considered, this forcing differed substantially among 15 atmospheric general circulation models. Although there are several potential causes, the largest contributor was the carbon dioxide radiation parameterizations of the models.

Analysis of snow feedbacks in 14 general circulation models

Snow feedbacks produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models have been analyzed through idealized numerical experiments. Included in the analysis is an investigation of the surface energy budgets of the models. Negative or weak positive snow feedbacks occurred in some of the models, while others produced strong positive snow feedbacks. These feedbacks are due not only to melting snow, but also to increases in boundary temperature, changes in air temperature, changes in water vapor, and changes in cloudiness. As a result, the net response of each model is quite complex. We analyze in detail the responses of one model with a strong positive snow feedback and another with a weak negative snow feedback. Some of the models include a temperature dependence of the snow albedo, and this has significantly affected the results.

Correction to “Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming”

[1] In the paper ‘‘Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming’’ by Richard T. Wetherald and Syukuro Manabe (Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(D19), 4379, doi:10.1029/2001JD001195, 2003), several typographical errors have been noted. The corrections are as follows. In Table 2, for the Nile, Africa, the control simulated runoff value should be 55.1 instead of 58.3, and the 2035–2065 period simulated runoff value should be 53.4 instead of 61.3. In the caption of Figure 12, the units should be mm/day instead of cm/day. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 108, NO. D22, 4702, doi:10.1029/2003JD004253, 2003