R. Wayne Higgins

The Pacific–South American Modes and Tropical Convection during the Southern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract Atmospheric circulation features and convection patterns associated with two leading low-frequency modes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are examined in multiyear global reanalyses produced by NCEP–NCAR and NASA–DAO. The two leading modes, referred to as the Pacific–South American (PSA) modes, are represented by the first two EOF patterns. The two patterns are in quadrature with each other and are dominated by wavenumber 3 in midlatitudes with large amplitudes in the Pacific–South American sector. In the Pacific, anomalies in the subtropics and in the midlatitudes are opposite in phase. Taken together, the two PSA modes represent the intraseasonal oscillation in the SH with periods of roughly 40 days. The evolution of the PSA modes shows a coherent eastward propagation. A composite analysis was conducted to study the evolution of tropical convection and the corresponding circulation changes associated with the PSA modes. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomaly composites during the mature phase...

Large-Scale Atmospheric Moisture Transport as Evaluated in the NCEP/NCAR and the NASA/DAO Reanalyses

Abstract Large-scale aspects of the atmospheric moisture transport and the overall moisture budget we studied using data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. Our objective is to critically evaluate the usefulness of the reanalysis products for studies of the global hydrologic cycle. The study period is from January 1985 to December 1993. Monthly mean water vapor transport, evaporation, and precipitation are compared to the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) reanalysis for roughly the same period and with satellite estimates and station observations. Comparisons of the moisture flux fields form the NCEP and the DAO reanalyses show general agreement in most aspects, but there are regional differences. Discrepancies in tropical moisture transport are largely due to uncertainties in the divergent winds. The DAO reanalysis shows a weaker Hadley circulation and weaker cross-equatorial flow, particularly during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Global patterns of evaporation f...

Validation of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) retrospective forcing over the southern Great Plains

[1] Atmospheric forcing used by land surface models is a critical component of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and its quality crucially affects the final product of NLDAS and our work on model improvement. A three-year (September 1996-September 1999) retrospective forcing data set was created from the Eta Data Assimilation System and observations and used to run the NLDAS land surface models for this period. We compared gridded NLDAS forcing with station observations obtained from networks including the Oklahoma Mesonet and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Cloud and Radiation Testbed at the southern Great Plains. Differences in all forcing variables except precipitation between the NLDAS forcing data set and station observations are small at all timescales. While precipitation data do not agree very well at an hourly timescale, they do agree better at longer timescales because of the way NLDAS precipitation forcing is generated. A small high bias in downward solar radiation and a low bias in downward longwave radiation exist in the retrospective forcing. To investigate the impact of these differences on land surface modeling we compared two sets of model simulations, one forced by the standard NLDAS product and one with station-observed meteorology. The differences in the resulting simulations of soil moisture and soil temperature for each model were small, much smaller than the differences between the models and between the models and observations. This indicates that NLDAS retrospective forcing provides an excellent state-of-the-art data set for land surface modeling, at least over the southern Great Plains region.

Tropical Influences on California Precipitation

Abstract Atmospheric circulation anomalies and hydrologic processes associated with California wet and dry events were examined during Northern Hemisphere winter. The precipitation anomaly over the west coast of North America shows a north–south three-cell pattern. Heavy precipitation in California is accompanied by dry conditions over Washington, British Columbia, and along the southeastern coast of Alaska and reduced precipitation over the subtropical eastern Pacific. The inverse relationship between California and the Pacific Northwest is supported by the transport of moisture flux. During wet events, the southern branch of moisture flux transport strengthens and brings moisture from the North Pacific to California, hence enhanced rainfall. Strengthened moisture flux transport northward to the area north of Washington is consistent with suppressed rainfall in California. The local precipitation anomaly pattern in the eastern tropical Pacific just north of the equator has a large influence on precipitat...

Persistent North Pacific Circulation Anomalies and the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract A composite analysis of multiyear (1985–93) global reanalyses produced by the NCEP/NCAR and the NASA/DAO is used to show that the development of persistent North Pacific (PNP) circulation anomalies during NH winter is linked to tropical intraseasonal oscillations. The development is initiated over the tropical west Pacific by anomalous convection (characterized by an east–west dipole structure) one to two weeks prior to the extratropical onset time in both reanalyses. As tropical heating moves eastward toward the central Pacific, anomalous divergent outflow associated with the local Hadley circulation generates an anomalous Rossby wave sink (source) in the subtropics, consistent with the retraction (extension) of the Pacific jet. Prior to onset the signature of the forced anomalies is a pair of cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomalies centered near the node of the tropical heating dipole. Wave trains extending from the region of anomalous convection into the extratropics set the stage for th...

Atmospheric processes associated with summer floods and droughts in the central United States

Abstract Persistent wet and dry events over the central United States are examined during summer. Composites based on selected persistent wet and dry events reveal common atmospheric processes and circulation features. During summer, heavy precipitation in the central United States is accompanied by less precipitation to the south, in a band that extends from the tropical eastern Pacific through the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic. Dry conditions also occur along the western coasts of Canada and Mexico during persistent wet episodes in the central United States. This rainfall pattern is supported by an inverse temperature–rainfall relationship over North America. During dry events, high pressure extends throughout a vertical column in a pattern that covers North America from 30° to 60°N. In contrast, during wet events, the high pressure is confined to the eastern half of North America, with low pressure prevailing in the western half. Increased northward meridional winds are found between this cy...

Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the United States and Mexico: Climatology and Interannual Variability

Abstract The climatology and interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones and their impacts on precipitation in the continental United States and Mexico are examined. The analysis is based on National Hurricane Center 6-hourly tropical cyclone track data for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins and gridded daily U.S. precipitation data for the period August–October 1950–98. Geographic maps of total tropical cyclone strike days, and the mean and maximum percentage of precipitation due to tropical cyclones, are examined by month. To make the procedures objective, it is assumed that precipitation is symmetric about the storm’s center. While this introduces some uncertainty in the analysis, sensitivity tests show that this assumption is reasonable for precipitation within 5° of the circulation center. The relationship between landfalling tropical cyclones and two leading patterns of interannual climate variability—El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)—are then exam...

Simulations and Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Abstract Analysis of the retrospective ensemble predictions (hindcasts) of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) indicates that the model successfully simulates many major features of the Asian summer monsoon including the climatology and interannual variability of major precipitation centers and atmospheric circulation systems. The model captures the onset of the monsoon better than the retreat of the monsoon, and it simulates the seasonal march of monsoon rainfall over Southeast Asia more realistically than that over South Asia. The CFS predicts the major dynamical monsoon indices and monsoon precipitation patterns several months in advance. It also depicts the interactive oceanic–atmospheric processes associated with the precipitation anomalies reasonably well at different time leads. Overall, the skill of monsoon prediction by the CFS mainly comes from the impact of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFS produces weaker-than-observed large-scale monsoon circulation, due partially to the cold bi...

Boreal Winter Links between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation

Abstract There is increasing evidence that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) modifies the mid- to high-latitude circulation and, in particular, appears to have a relationship to the leading mode of extratropical variability, the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In this study, new insights into the observed similarities between the MJO and the AO are explored. It is shown that the eastward progression of the convectively active phase of the MJO is associated with a corresponding shift in the tendency and sign of the AO index. Moreover, the AO and the MJO share several analogous features not only in the global circulation, but also in surface temperature fields. Also, the AO is linked to a pattern of eastward-propagating MJO-like variability in the tropics that is partially reproduced in free runs of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. Finally, it is shown that the structure of the AO, as defined by the leading mode in the 1000-hPa geopotential height field, is significantly altered based on the phase o...

Climatology of Tropical Intraseasonal Convective Anomalies: 1979–2002

Tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies (TICA) have a central role in subseasonal changes in the coupled ocean‐atmosphere system, but the climatology of TICA events has not been properly documented. This study exploits 24 years of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data and a tracking algorithm to develop a climatology of eastward propagating TICA events. Three distinct types of TICA occurrences are documented according to their propagation characteristics. The first type (IND) is characterized by events that propagate in the Indian Ocean without significant influence in the western Pacific Ocean. The second and third types are associated with occurrences of the Madden‐Julian oscillation during boreal winters (MJO) and summers (ISO). The frequency of occurrence of TICA events is highest in April‐June and October‐December and lowest in July‐September. An analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics reveals that MJO events tend to have the longest life cycle, greatest intensity, and largest variability inside the contiguous region of OLR anomaly. Given the data record of 24 years, the analysis of interannual occurrences of TICA events does not show statistically significant