Rachel Beatty Riedl

Political Parties and Uncertainty in Developing Democracies

This article lays out a theoretical framework for understanding the effects of political uncertainty on party development and strategies of mobilization and competition. Defining uncertainty as the imprecision with which political actors are able to predict future interactions, the authors identify three types of political uncertainty: regime uncertainty, economic uncertainty, and institutional uncertainty. They argue that political uncertainty is particularly high among developing democracies, contributing to puzzling empirical patterns of party development and competition in these contexts. Taking into account the role of uncertainty in the strategic decision making of party elites will help scholars better understand the differences between parties in advanced and developing democracies. But it can also help scholars understand the less dramatic differences between parties even within advanced democracies. The authors’ theoretical framework can be applied broadly since uncertainty informs the strategic choices of a much wider range of political actors.

Religion as a Stimulant of Political Participation: Experimental Evidence from Nairobi, Kenya

In this article we explore how certain religious messages may spur or constrain political participation. Specifically, we test whether religious messages that provide individuals a positive self-image can act as stimulants, giving people a sense of internal efficacy to participate in politics. We explore this hypothesis through a novel experimental design in Nairobi, Kenya. We find that exposure to self-affirmation messages typical of Pentecostal and Charismatic churches motivated participation in a political text message campaign. We discuss implications of these findings for politics in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as for the study of religion and politics more generally.

Sub-National–Cross-National Variation: Method and Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa

This article proposes four different types of research designs to highlight the conceptual, theoretical, and methodological value of an interactive sub-national cross-national approach: as a two-level interaction, as a hierarchical model, as a set of controls, and as quasi-experimental. These possibilities demonstrate the unique advantages of theorizing and empirically analyzing sub-national variation in its relation to the national superstructure. Using the example of the multi-level identities and institutions associated with religious organizations across sub-Saharan Africa, I demonstrate that the impact of religious leaders on their affiliated followers’ political orientations vary according to the interactive position of each group in their local and national context.