Rachel Freeman

Managing energy: Reducing peak load and managing risk with demand response and demand side management

In recent years, it seems like everything from weather to fuel prices has become more volatile, adding new stresses to electric systems which are already running at or near their peak capacity. What has received less attention is the opportunity and value of investments that both lower demand and help mitigate price volatility in the market. Rachel Freeman looks at approaches to balancing supply-side investments with appropriate demand-side investments, and argues that these investments are an important and necessary factor in any well-functioning electricity system.

Design of an Integrated Assessment of Re-distributed Manufacturing for the Sustainable, Resilient City

Re-distributed manufacturing (RDM) has the potential to be beneficial to business and society through creating jobs, reducing the environmental impacts of production, and improving organizational and societal resilience to future disturbances. The potential impacts of RDM for a city-region are complex and their exploration requires the consideration of a wide range of issues—societal, technical, logistical, and environmental. This paper discusses the use of an approach called Integrated Assessment to carry out an initial scoping of the issues. A research framework for RDM, and the key themes from a workshop that explored the causal relationships between different types of resilience, sustainability, and the manufacturing sectors are presented.

Revisiting Jevons’ Paradox with System Dynamics: Systemic Causes and Potential Cures

This article examines the dynamic relationship between the consumption of goods and services, technological efficiency, and associated resource use, as described by the theory of Jevons’ Paradox (JP). A theory is presented about what causes JP, in which resource efficiency savings are eventually overtaken by increases in consumption to produce a net increase in resource use and therefore environmental impacts. An application of the theory was carried out using system dynamics, modeling carbon dioxide equivalent (CO‐eq) emissions from private road transport in the UK between 1970 and 2010. The model results indicate the approximate impact of JP within the historical period: a rise in travel consumption of approximately one half and a rise in CO‐eq emissions of approximately one third. The model was used to estimate whether the European Union (EU) goal of a 40% drop in CO‐eq emissions by 2030 is achievable in the road transport sector, by adding interventions, and the results indicate that higher increases in fleet efficiency than are currently forecast, costlier travel, and a reduction in travel consumption would all be required. The theory and model presented in this article highlight the need to implement a system of interventions that can influence the strength and direction of each of the feedback loops within the system being intervened with, if CO‐eq emissions are to be more reliably reduced than they are at present. Further, because the system is constantly evolving, intervening with it requires a responsive, holistic approach, while maintaining focus on a long‐term goal.

An Exploration of the Potential for Re-distributed Manufacturing to Contribute to a Sustainable , Resilient City

Abstract Re-distributed manufacturing (RDM), broadly described as manufacturing done at a smaller-scale and locally, could be beneficial to business and urban society through creating jobs, reducing the environmental impacts of production, and improving resilience to future disturbances. Consideration of RDM within a city-region requires the consideration of a wide range of issues – societal, technical, economic and environmental. This paper presents the results of a study into the potential for RDM to contribute to a sustainable, resilient city in the face of a range of expected future disturbances on the city and on manufacturing sectors. The study took an integrated assessment approach which incorporated the development of a conceptual framework; a ‘strawman’ causal loop diagram which was reviewed by participants in a workshop; and a stock and flow system dynamics model that represents our understanding about the structure and behaviour of urban manufacturing. Several key themes emerged: similarities between RDM and traditional manufacturing, availability of physical space for RDM to be done, achieving urban resilience through RDM by enabling responsiveness to disturbances, changes in environmental impacts from production, additions or losses in jobs, the competitiveness of local manufacturing, and skills and innovation for RDM technologies. Further work is recommended.

Application of Systems Thinking to energy demand reduction

The need to reduce energy demand has been firmly established, but progress so far has been limited. This paper postulates that a Systems Thinking approach could address some of the weaknesses of current policies, which include a lack of deep understanding into what really drives energy demand and how to change it at the user level. Several systems analysis tools are reviewed: the energy system can be conceptualized as a sociotechnical regime within a Multi Level Perspective framework, with regime changes a result of landscape pressures; alternatively, subsystems within the demand side system can be classified by problem-context type. Regarding applications of systems methodologies, a case study into the use of systems methods at Sustain Ltd by their low-carbon buildings practice is given. A non-capital approach that combines technology optimization, behavior change, and information feedback is expected to produce quick and low-cost energy savings within a school.

A Theory on the Future of the Rebound Effect in a Resource-Constrained World

The paradox underlying the rebound effect is that, due to secondary effects, improvements in resource efficiency provide smaller reductions in the consumption of energy and/or material resources than are expected – or even an overall net increase in resource use. The rebound effect has played a part in economic growth and industrialisation, yet it remains a problem for the task of reducing negative environmental impacts. This paper proposes that the size of the rebound effect, and the type of impacts it causes, may be affected by future changes in the system within which it arises. Four types of rebound effect are considered: economy-wide effects, transformational effects, frontier effects, and international rebound effects. A conceptual model of the historical role of the rebound effect in socio-technical systems, and the relationship of socio-technical systems with the environment in which they exist, provides a “sandbox” for testing ideas about the future. The theory underlying the conceptual model draws upon the concepts of natural capital, the Global Ecological Footprint, and the Great Acceleration. How the size of four types of the rebound effect might change in future, as supplies of resources from natural capital become more constrained, is discussed within three storylines. In the first storyline, natural capital declines but remains fairly stable; rebound is much decreased as resources are less available and efficiency is used up more in stabilising supplies of goods and services. In the second storyline, growth continues without constraint amid regional rivalry; eventually there is a strong downturn in availability of resources and negative impacts on society and on natural capital. In the third storyline, impact caps are implemented for different types of resources; for some time, industry and society adapt by investing in low resource use innovation and global cooperation on management of natural capital; once natural capital recovers and stabilises, growth and consumption may increase along with rebound but staying within a Global Ecological Footprint of 1 Earth. The theory and model in this paper are intended to contribute to new thinking on the subject of the rebound effect.

Revisiting Jevons’ Paradox with System Dynamics: Systemic Causes and Potential Cures: Revisiting Jevons’ Paradox with System Dynamics

This article examines the dynamic relationship between the consumption of goods and services, technological efficiency, and associated resource use, as described by the theory of Jevons’ Paradox (JP). A theory is presented about what causes JP, in which resource efficiency savings are eventually overtaken by increases in consumption to produce a net increase in resource use and therefore environmental impacts. An application of the theory was carried out using system dynamics, modeling carbon dioxide equivalent (CO‐eq) emissions from private road transport in the UK between 1970 and 2010. The model results indicate the approximate impact of JP within the historical period: a rise in travel consumption of approximately one half and a rise in CO‐eq emissions of approximately one third. The model was used to estimate whether the European Union (EU) goal of a 40% drop in CO‐eq emissions by 2030 is achievable in the road transport sector, by adding interventions, and the results indicate that higher increases in fleet efficiency than are currently forecast, costlier travel, and a reduction in travel consumption would all be required. The theory and model presented in this article highlight the need to implement a system of interventions that can influence the strength and direction of each of the feedback loops within the system being intervened with, if CO‐eq emissions are to be more reliably reduced than they are at present. Further, because the system is constantly evolving, intervening with it requires a responsive, holistic approach, while maintaining focus on a long‐term goal.

Revisiting Jevons’ Paradox with System Dynamics

This article examines the dynamic relationship between the consumption of goods and services, technological efficiency, and associated resource use, as described by the theory of Jevons’ Paradox (JP). A theory is presented about what causes JP, in which resource efficiency savings are eventually overtaken by increases in consumption to produce a net increase in resource use and therefore environmental impacts. An application of the theory was carried out using system dynamics, modeling carbon dioxide equivalent (CO‐eq) emissions from private road transport in the UK between 1970 and 2010. The model results indicate the approximate impact of JP within the historical period: a rise in travel consumption of approximately one half and a rise in CO‐eq emissions of approximately one third. The model was used to estimate whether the European Union (EU) goal of a 40% drop in CO‐eq emissions by 2030 is achievable in the road transport sector, by adding interventions, and the results indicate that higher increases in fleet efficiency than are currently forecast, costlier travel, and a reduction in travel consumption would all be required. The theory and model presented in this article highlight the need to implement a system of interventions that can influence the strength and direction of each of the feedback loops within the system being intervened with, if CO‐eq emissions are to be more reliably reduced than they are at present. Further, because the system is constantly evolving, intervening with it requires a responsive, holistic approach, while maintaining focus on a long‐term goal.