Rachel S. Franklin

Human Capital Redistribution in the USA: The Migration of the College-bound

Abstract Almost all the contributions on human capital and migration have focused on individuals who recently completed a tertiary education degree. Not much has been done with regard to high-school leavers. However, studying the migration of high-school leavers (college-bound individuals) is at least as important as studying college graduates’ migration. We present an analysis of college-bound individuals’ migration patterns for the USA. We argue that understanding the main determinants of these migration patterns is fundamental for policy makers in their ‘quest for human capital retention’.

Pandora’s Box: The Potential and Peril of Migration Data from the American Community Survey

The collection, dissemination, and availability of migration data for the United States are poised for an enormous change: the full-scale launch of the American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS is set to replace the long-form sample data previously collected as part of the decennial census. For migration researchers, the new survey offers the possibility of more frequently gathered migration data at a variety of spatial scales, along with annual information about the characteristics of migrants themselves. As with any shift in a data-collection process, however, the ACS could, in some aspects, fall short of what we already have. In this article, the authors first suggest elements of the ideal migration data set. They then examine the real potential, and the possible perils, of the ACS as compared to migration data researchers are already accustomed to working with. In addition to highlighting what the new ACS will (and will not) offer, the authors suggest that now is the time for regional scientists to address their basic migration data needs and to take action to ensure those needs are met.

A Shift-Share Method for the Analysis of Regional Fertility Change: An Application to the Decline in Childbearing in Italy, 1952-1991

This paper applies shift-share analysis, a tool often used in economic geography and regional science, to regional fertility change in Italy, 1952-1991. During this post-World War II period, Italian fertility declined by over 33 percent, but the decline varied widely from region to region. Moreover, the demographic originations of the decline in births are not fully understood. Using birth data for nineteen Italian regions, this analysis is able to break regional change in births into three main components: a national effect, a cohort effect, and a regional differential effect, which in turn provide insight into the roots of fertility change at the regional level. These three components of change are then further disaggregated to account for the differences between changes due to population change and those related to actual changes in birth rates (the number of children produced by each woman). Strong regional differences between the north and south of Italy are demonstrated.

Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy

The paper re-evaluates the Easterlin hypothesis in a multiregional context by conceptually and methodologically accounting for two processes of spatial interdependence in an open subnational demo-economic system: diffusion of fertility norms and values across space, and movements between labor markets. The empirical analysis estimates pooled cross-sectional, time-series models using data for 18 Italian regions from 1952 to 1995. The results suggest that accounting for spatial interdependencies is necessary to avoid model misspecifications. Moreover, the models lead to space-time landscapes of fertility elasticities that suggest, for the majority of space-time units, an inverse Easterlin effect for the diffusion component but support of the Easterlin hypothesis due to labor movements across space. Copyright 2002 Blackwell Publishers Inc.

The Minority Homeownership Gap, Home Foreclosure, and Nativity: Evidence from Miami‐Dade County

This paper investigates the interplay between nativity and both homeownership and foreclosure in Miami‐Dade County, Florida at both the individual and community levels. We estimate the likelihood of individual‐level home ownership based on place of birth and year of entry to the U.S., and separately estimate community‐level foreclosures based on the demographic composition of neighborhoods. Results confirm previous work: all subgroups, except Cubans, are less likely to be homeowners than white, non‐Hispanics and only Cuban neighborhoods had foreclosure rates significantly lower than rates in white, non‐Hispanic neighborhoods. Nativity has a stronger effect on homeownership than on foreclosure levels.

Housing Prices in Tucson, Arizona

The hedonic approach is used to analyze selling prices for housing units in greater Tucson, Arizona, during 1998. Using over 6,400 Multiple Listing Service transactions, ordinary least-squares regression is used to estimate implicit prices for the amount of living space, age of the unit, and other housing attributes in this rapidly growing southwestern city. Price premiums are estimated for nine different real estate districts, which realtors believe are different housing submarkets. Regression estimates are also given for the difference between original list price and selling price, thereby indicating how sellers and buyers differentially evaluated housing attributes. Nearly 3,700 transactions (from an overlapping data set) were geocoded, and these cases are examined in somewhat more detail. Spatial heterogeneity in selling prices is addressed but spatial dependency is not. The statistics of the hedonic price functions compare favorably with those for other U.S. cities.

For Whom the Bells Toll : Alonso and a Regional Science of Decline

In his presidential address to the Regional Science Association over thirty years ago, William Alonso presented the case for “Five Bell Shapes in Development” and argued that “the developed countries will enter fully in to the realm of the right-hand tail of these curves” (p. 16) and that this transition might result in several surprises. He proposed, therefore, that we should study the right tail of these “curves” as well as interactions among them. Much of what Alonso suggested has come to pass, although his prognostications were not always exact. And although he touched on several issues of relevance to regional scientists, the discipline has been slow to move away from a growth-centered paradigm. The strength of regional science—the capacity to consider economic, demographic, and geographical aspects of an issue simultaneously—has yet to be focused on some of the “right-hand” challenges that have arisen, population loss, for example. In this article, we provide a review of regional science research within the context of Alonso’s five bells and hypothesize how Alonso’s propositions might differ in today’s world. We then focus more specifically on one particular area: population loss. Using these examples allows us to highlight how regional science might contribute to the conceptualization of “right-hand tail” development challenges, especially where theory, issues of spatial scale, and interregional dependencies are concerned.

Local Population Change and Variations in Racial Integration in the United States, 2000–2010:

While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil index, we analyze the fifty most populous metropolitan statistical areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a unique unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

GIS and the Social Sciences: Theory and Applications

GIS and the Social Sciences offers a uniquely social science approach on the theory and application of GIS with a range of modern examples. It explores how human geography can engage with a variety of important policy issues through linking together GIS and spatial analysis, and demonstrates the importance of applied GIS and spatial analysis for solving real-world problems in both the public and private sector.

Working in a Landscape of Recession and Expansion: Academic Jobs in Geography in the United States, 1990–2011

The recent economic recession brought much university hiring to a standstill in the United States. Geography, in spite of strong prerecession growth, was no exception. Without a sense of how the academic geography job market has changed over the past decades, however, it is difficult to assess any recession-related decline or the relative strength of any recovery. This article presents an analysis of academic job postings in the field of geography from 1990 through 2011. Using data aggregated from the AAG Newsletter, which acts as an informal clearinghouse for most academic openings for geographers at four-year colleges and universities in the United States, we assess changes in the overall magnitude in numbers of academic job openings, with the particular goal of placing the recession-based paucity of openings within its broader historical context. Our results indicate that, indeed, the recession led to a very sharp decline in advertisements, but compared to previous recessions, the recovery appears to have occurred very quickly. Open-rank and temporary/non-tenure-track positions appear to have been fairly robust to the poor economic conditions, whereas assistant professor openings were particularly hard hit.