Radoslav Latinovic

Alarm symptoms in early diagnosis of cancer in primary care : cohort study using General Practice Research Database

Objective To evaluate the association between alarm symptoms and the subsequent diagnosis of cancer in a large population based study in primary care. Design Cohort study. Setting UK General Practice Research Database. Patients 762 325 patients aged 15 years and older, registered with 128 general practices between 1994 and 2000. First occurrences of haematuria, haemoptysis, dysphagia, and rectal bleeding were identified in patients with no previous cancer diagnosis.. Main outcome measure Positive predictive value of first occurrence of haematuria, haemoptysis, dysphagia, or rectal bleeding for diagnoses of neoplasms of the urinary tract, respiratory tract, oesophagus, or colon and rectum during three years after symptom onset. Likelihood ratio and sensitivity were also estimated. Results 11 108 first occurrences of haematuria were associated with 472 new diagnoses of urinary tract cancers in men and 162 in women, giving overall three year positive predictive values of 7.4% (95% confidence interval 6.8% to 8.1%) in men and 3.4% (2.9% to 4.0%) in women. After 4812 new episodes of haemoptysis, 220 diagnoses of respiratory tract cancer were made in men (positive predictive value 7.5%, 6.6% to 8.5%) and 81 in women (4.3%, 3.4% to 5.3%). After 5999 new diagnoses of dysphagia, 150 diagnoses of oesophageal cancer were made in men (positive predictive value 5.7%, 4.9% to 6.7%) and 81 in women (2.4%, 1.9 to 3.0%). After 15 289 episodes of rectal bleeding, 184 diagnoses of colorectal cancer were made in men (positive predictive value 2.4%, 2.1% to 2.8%) and 154 in women (2.0%, 1.7% to 2.3%). Predictive values increased with age and were strikingly high, for example, in men with haemoptysis aged 75-84 (17.1%, 13.5% to 21.1%) and in men with dysphagia aged 65-74 (9.0%, 6.8% to 11.7%). Conclusion New onset of alarm symptoms is associated with an increased likelihood of a diagnosis of cancer, especially in men and in people aged over 65. These data provide support for the early evaluation of alarm symptoms in an attempt to identify underlying cancers at an earlier and more amenable stage.

Incidence of common compressive neuropathies in primary care

Apart from carpal tunnel syndrome, there are no population based studies of the epidemiology of compressive neuropathies. To provide this information, new presentations of compressive neuropathies among patients registered with 253 general practices in the UK General Practice Research Database with 1.83 million patient years at risk in 2000 were analysed. The study revealed that in 2000 the annual age standardised rates per 100 000 of new presentations in primary care were: carpal tunnel syndrome, men 87.8/women 192.8; Morton’s metatarsalgia, men 50.2/women 87.5; ulnar neuropathy, men 25.2/women 18.9; meralgia paraesthetica, men 10.7/women 13.2; and radial neuropathy, men 2.97/women 1.42. New presentations were most frequent at ages 55–64 years except for carpal tunnel syndrome, which was most frequent in women aged 45–54 years, and radial nerve palsy, which was most frequent in men aged 75–84 years. In 2000, operative treatment was undertaken for 31% of new presentations of carpal tunnel syndrome, 3% of Morton’s metatarsalgia, and 30% of ulnar neuropathy.

Headache and migraine in primary care: consultation, prescription, and referral rates in a large population

Background/Aims: Headache is the most common new neurological symptom seen by general practitioners and neurologists. This study describes headache consultation, prescription, and referral rates in a large sample of UK general practices. Methods: Analysis of data from patients ⩾15 years registered at 253 UK general practices diagnosed with headache/migraine from 1992 to 2000. Rates were age standardised using the European standard population for reference. Results: There were 13.2 million patient years of observation. Headache consultation rates were 6.4/100 patients/year in women and 2.5 in men. They were highest at 15–24 years (15.8/100 in women; 5.8/100 in men), decreasing with age. Antimigraine drugs were prescribed at 36.7% of consultations for women and 26.6% for men. Among referrals to specialists, 55% were to neurology and 30% to general medicine. The neurology referral rate in patients with headache was 2.1/100, and was higher in men (2.7/100) than women (1.9/100). Conclusions: These results provide precise age specific and age standardised estimates for headache consulting in general practice, in addition to prescribing and referral to specialist care. Consultation rates are highest in young women; hospital referrals peak in middle aged men. Research is needed into reasons for referral, and on better ways of delivering headache services.

Implementation of universal newborn bloodspot screening for sickle cell disease and other clinically significant haemoglobinopathies in England : screening results for 2005-7

Early results from the National Health Service Sickle Cell and Thalassaemia Screening programme covering the whole of England are reported following the implementation of the national newborn blood-spot screening programme. Of the 13 laboratories performing screening, 10 chose high-performance liquid chromatography as the first screen, with isoelectric focusing as the second confirmatory test. Screening results for April 2005 to March 2007 are presented and include data from all the laboratories screening newborns in England, and almost 1.2 million infants. The screen-positive results show a national birth prevalence of almost 1 in 2000. The birth prevalence in London is five times that of most of the rest of the country. Over 17 000 carriers have been identified. Approximately seven per 1000 samples are reported as post-transfusion with wide ethnic category variation. Given the prevalence of the conditions, and coverage by ethnicity, 3–4 screen-positive cases could be missed each year. National implementation of newborn screening in England has increased the number of children identified with sickle cell disease, in many areas almost doubling the workload. Underascertainment of the condition has allowed a downplaying of the scale of need. It may also have contributed to infant mortality rates in urban areas as babies died without a diagnosis or treatment. The value of a co-ordinated national approach to policy development and implementation is emphasised by the English experience. The programme provides a model for Europe as well as other countries with significant minority populations, such as Canada. Potentially it also offers important lessons for Africa where the World Health Organization is supporting the introduction of newborn screening.

Selective decrease in consultations and antibiotic prescribing for acute respiratory tract infections in UK primary care up to 2006.

Background The aim of this study was to estimate trends in primary care consultations and antibiotic prescribing for acute respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in the UK from 1997 to 2006. Methods Data were analysed for 100 000 subjects registered with 78 family practices in the UK General Practice Research Database; the numbers of consultations for RTI and associated antibiotic prescriptions were enumerated. Results The consultation rate for RTI declined in females from 442.2 per 1000 registered patients in 1997 to 330.9 in 2006, and in males from 318.5 to 249.0. The rate of consultations for colds, rhinitis and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) declined by 4.2 (95% CI 2.3–6.1) per 1000 per year in females and by 3.6 (2.3–4.8) in males. The rate of antibiotic prescribing for RTI was higher in females and declined by 8.5 (2.0–15.1) per 1000 in females and 6.7 (2.7–10.8) in males. For colds, rhinitis and URTI, the proportion of consultations with antibiotics was prescribed declined by 1.7% per year in females and 1.8% in males. Conclusions Decreasing frequency of consultation and antibiotic prescription for colds, rhinitis and ‘URTI’ continues to drive a reduction in the rate of antibiotic utilization for RTIs.

Explaining the Decline in Early Mortality in Men and Women With Type 2 Diabetes: A population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE—The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that changing utilization of lipid-lowering, antihypertensive, and oral hypoglycemic drugs may be associated with trends in all-cause mortality in men and women with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This was a cohort study in 197 general practices in the U.K. General Practice Research Database including 48,579 subjects with type 2 diabetes first diagnosed between 1996 and 2006. Measures included all-cause mortality and prescription of hypoglycemic, lipid-lowering, and antihypertensive drugs. RESULTS—From 1996 to 2006, incidence of type 2 diabetes increased and the mean age at diagnosis declined in women. Prescription of statins within 12 months of diagnosis increased (1996, women 4.9%, men 5.1%; 2005, women 63.5%, men 71.0%), as did drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin system (1996, women 19.4%, men 21.5%; 2005, women 45.5%, men 54.6%) and metformin (1996, women 19.1%, men 15.8%; 2005, women 45.5%, men 42.8%), whereas prescription of sulfonylureas declined. All-cause mortality in the first 24 months after diabetes diagnosis declined in men from 47.9 per 1,000 person-years for subjects with diabetes diagnosed in 1996 to 25.2 for subjects with diabetes diagnosed in 2006 and in women from 37.4 in 1996 to 27.6 in 2006. In a multiple regression model adjusting for age and comorbidity, prescription of statins before or after diagnosis, renin-angiotensin system drugs before or after diagnosis, and metformin after diagnosis were associated with lower mortality. CONCLUSIONS—Widespread implementation of more effective prescribing to control lipids, blood glucose, and blood pressure may have contributed to recent declines in early mortality in men and women with type 2 diabetes.

Physical and psychological co-morbidity in irritable bowel syndrome: a matched cohort study using the General Practice Research Database.

Irritable bowel syndrome is a common problem known to have a complex relationship with psychological disorders and other physical symptoms. Little information, however, is available concerning physical and psychological comorbidity in irritable bowel syndrome patients studied over an extended period.

Alarm symptoms and identification of non-cancer diagnoses in primary care: cohort study

Objective To evaluate the predictive value of alarm symptoms for specified non-cancer diagnoses and cancer diagnoses in primary care. Design Cohort study using the general practice research database. Setting 128 general practices in the UK contributing data, 1994-2000. Participants 762 325 patients aged 15 or older. Main outcome measures Up to 15 pre-specified, non-cancer diagnoses associated with four alarm symptoms (haematuria, haemoptysis, dysphagia, rectal bleeding) at 90 days and three years after the first recorded alarm symptom. For each outcome analyses were implemented separately in a time to event framework. Data were censored if patients died, left the practice, or reached the end of the study period. Results We analysed data on first episodes of haematuria (11 108), haemoptysis (4812), dysphagia (5999), or rectal bleeding (15 289). Non-cancer diagnoses were common in patients who presented with alarm symptoms. The proportion diagnosed with either cancer or non-cancer diagnoses generally increased with age. In patients presenting with haematuria, the proportions diagnosed with either cancer or non-cancer diagnoses within 90 days were 17.5% (95% confidence interval 16.4% to 18.6%) in women and 18.3% (17.4% to 19.3%) in men. For the other symptoms the proportions were 25.7% (23.8% to 27.8%) and 24% (22.5% to 25.6%) for haemoptysis, 17.2% (16% to 18.5%) and 22.6% (21% to 24.3%) for dysphagia, and 14.5% (13.7% to 15.3%) and 16.7% (15.8% to 17.5%) for rectal bleeding. Conclusion Clinically relevant diagnoses are made in a high proportion of patients presenting with alarm symptoms. For every four to seven patients evaluated for haematuria, haemoptysis, dysphagia, or rectal bleeding, relevant diagnoses will be identified in one patient within 90 days.

Mortality in type 2 diabetic subjects prescribed metformin and sulphonylurea drugs in combination: cohort study

In the UK Prospective Diabetes Study, treatment with sulphonylurea and metformin in combination was associated with increased mortality. We compared mortality in subjects treated either with metformin or sulphonylurea drugs alone, or in combination.

Positive screening and carrier results for the England-wide universal newborn sickle cell screening programme by ethnicity and area for 2005–07

Aims The overall aim of the new national newborn programme is to identify infants at risk of sickle cell disease to allow early detection and to minimise deaths and complications. Methods Universal screening for sickle cell disease was introduced in England between September 2003 and July 2006. The 13 newborn laboratories each screen between 25 000 and 110 000 babies a year using the existing dried bloodspot cards. The specified conditions to be screened for include sickle cell anaemia (Hb SS), Hb SC disease, Hb S/β thalassaemia, Hb S/DPunjab and Hb S/OArab. Data are reported on screening results by ethnic group and geographical area. Results The prevalence of screen positive results across England is 1:2000. There is a 25-fold variation by geographical area. African babies make up 61% of all screen positive results despite representing only 4% of total births. Combined carrier rates vary widely by ethnicity, from 1.85 per 1000 (1:540) in ‘White British’ to 145 per 1000 (1:7) in ‘African’ babies. Refusal rates for screening show variation by ethnicity. Conclusions These results provide useful information both about the frequency of these conditions and the carrier state and their geographic and ethnic distribution across England. This can be used to refine counselling information and are also useful to target and plan services and public information.