Rafael de Arce

Have Migrants Bought a "Round Trip Ticket"? Determinants in Probability of Immigrants' Return in Spain

Understanding the extent to which immigration is a predominantly permanent or transitory phenomenon is essential for host countries insofar as it affects the strategic design of their admission, reception, and integration policies. Beyond the determination of the volume of returns, it is crucial to also determine which covariates connect better with a greater or lesser propensity of return. An adequate approach to the dynamics of the return requires considering this decision conditioned by the time elapsed since the arrival of the immigrant. From this perspective, the variable of interest would not be the intention of return, but the elapsed time between the arrival of the immigrant and the moment that return is considered as an option, as well as what are the factors affecting a greater or lesser duration of the stay. In this context, the article explores the relative importance of various personal and migration characteristics in the intention of return of immigrants conditional at the time of residence through the application of a Cox model of duration.

A Dynamic Input–Output Scheme for the Estimation of Labour Migration Impact on GDP and Employment in Receiving Countries with an Application for Spain

The basic purpose of this study is to describe a suitable technical procedure for a complete evaluation of the economic impact of immigrants’ workers on GDP and employment during a given period. A technical Input-Output scheme is precisely depicted, emphasising how to take into account, in its different stages, quite specific features in relation to migration dynamics in the receiving country of analysis. Finally, the procedure is used for illustrating the impact of labour migration arriving to the Spanish economy during the recent years of economic boom, just before the beginning of the present crisis.