Rafael Flores de Frutos

PUBLIC CAPITAL STOCK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH : AN ANALYSIS OF THE SPANISH ECONOMY

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the short- and long-term effects of public investment in infrastructure on aggregate output, labour and capital formation in the private sector. The problem is analysed in a dynamic multivariate framework, which allows for explicit consideration of feedback among all the variables. This approach generalizes the current literature, which relies on a single-equation model to estimate production functions and implicitly assumes the absence of feedback relationships. For the Spanish economy, our results suggest positive long-term effects of public investment on the private sector variables.

A generalized least squares estimation method for VARMA models

In this paper a new generalized least squares procedure for estimating VARMA models is proposed. This method differs from existing ones in explicitly considering the stochastic structure of the approximation error that arises when lagged innovations are replaced with lagged residuals obtained from a long VAR. Simulation results indicate that this method performs better than the Double Regression method and similar to Mauricios (1995) exact maximum likelihood estimation procedure.

A generalized least squares estimation method for invertible vector moving average models

Abstract We propose a new GLS procedure for estimating VMA models. Its main feature is to consider the stochastic structure of the approximation errors arising when lagged VMA innovations are replaced with lagged residuals from a long VAR.

Consumption and housing wealth breakdown of the effect of a rise in interest rates

In this article the effect on consumption of a fall in housing wealth and housing prices, resulting from an increase in interest rates is estimated. With the help of a dynamic multiequation, macroeconomic model, the consumer response function is broken down into two parts: a direct response related to a rise in the cost of credit and another indirect one related to the deterioration of the property market. Estimation of the theoretical model is done by means of a Vectorial Error-Correction (VEC) model.

Seasonal fluctuations and equilibrium models of exchange rate

Most of the evidence on dynamic equilibrium exchange rate models is based on seasonally adjusted consumption data. Equilibrium models have not worked well in explaining the actual exchange rate. However, the use of seasonally adjusted data might be responsible for the spurious rejection of the model. This article presents a new equilibrium model for the exchange rates that incorporates seasonal preferences. The fit of the model to the data is evaluated for five industrialized countries using seasonally unadjusted data. Our findings indicate that a model with seasonal preferences can generate monthly time series of the exchange rate without seasonality even when the variables that theoretically determine the exchange rate show clear seasonal behaviours. Further, the model can generate theoretical exchange rates with the same order of integration than actual exchange rates, and in some cases, with the same stochastic trend.

Housing investment in Spain: has it been the main engine of growth?

This article studies dynamic responses of employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to a permanent, unitary shock in the housing capital stock for the Spanish economy. It quantifies the importance of this variable in the boom experienced by the Spanish economy during the pre-crisis years. Results confirm that building industry has been the most important engine for output and labour growth.This paper studies dynamic responses of employment and GDP growth to a permanent, uni-tary shock in the housing capital stock for the Spanish economy. It quantifies the importance of this variable in the boom experienced by the Spanish economy during the pre-crisis years. Results confirm that building industry has been the most important engine for output and labour growth.

The economic impact of investment in infrastructures of telecommunications in Spain: 1964‐1993.

In this paper we address the question of how telecommunications affect economic growth, by estimating the effect of direct investment in telecommunications infrastructures on aggregate output, employment, and investment in Spain. In contrast with previous studies, the problem is analyzed in a dynamic multivariate framework which allows for explicit consideration of feedbacks among all the variables. We find significant effects of the investment in infrastructures of telecommunications on aggregate output, employment and investment which extend for several years. This might justify a policy for stimulating investment in this sector.

Export Growth and Economic Development in Colonial British America

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between tobacco and the rest of the economy in the colonial Chesapeake to test the staple theory version of the export-led growth hypothesis. The paper adopts a multivariate time-series approach which accommodates the presence of cointegration and contemporaneous correlations among innovations. The empirical evidence strongly supports the staple theory. British demand for tobacco is statistically exogenous and found to induce cyclical fluctuations in the colonial price of tobacco as well as temporary over- or underproduction, as measured by a long-term cointegration relationship between the British demand for tobacco and the colonial price of land. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.