Rafael Henrique Moraes Pereira

Distributive justice and equity in transportation

ABSTRACT Over the past decades, transport researchers and policy-makers have devoted increasing attention to questions about justice and equity. Nonetheless, there is still little engagement with theories in political philosophy to frame what justice means in the context of transport policies. This paper reviews key theories of justice (utilitarianism, libertarianism, intuitionism, Rawls’ egalitarianism, and Capability Approaches (CAs)) and critically evaluates the insights they generate when applied to transport. Based on a combination of Rawlsian and CAs, we propose that distributive justice concerns over transport disadvantage and social exclusion should focus primarily on accessibility as a human capability. This means that, in policy evaluation, a detailed analysis of the distributional effects of transport policies should take account of the setting of minimum standards of accessibility to key destinations and the extent to which these policies respect individuals’ rights and prioritise disadvantaged groups, reduce inequalities of opportunities, and mitigate transport externalities. A full account of justice in transportation requires a more complete understanding of accessibility than traditional approaches have been able to deliver to date.

Socioeconomic and regional differences in active transportation in Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To present national estimates regarding walking or cycling for commuting in Brazil and in 10 metropolitan regions. METHODS By using data from the Health section of 2008’s Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio (Brazil’s National Household Sample Survey), we estimated how often employed people walk or cycle to work, disaggregating our results by sex, age range, education level, household monthly income per capita, urban or rural address, metropolitan regions, and macro-regions in Brazil. Furthermore, we estimated the distribution of this same frequency according to quintiles of household monthly income per capita in each metropolitan region of the country. RESULTS A third of the employed men and women walk or cycle from home to work in Brazil. For both sexes, this share decreases as income and education levels rise, and it is higher among younger individuals, especially among those living in rural areas and in the Northeast region of the country. Depending on the metropolitan region, the practice of active transportation is two to five times more frequent among low-income individuals than among high-income individuals. CONCLUSIONS Walking or cycling to work in Brazil is most frequent among low-income individuals and the ones living in less economically developed areas. Active transportation evaluation in Brazil provides important information for public health and urban mobility policy-making

Envelhecimento populacional, gratuidades no transporte público e seus efeitos sobre as tarifas na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo

A concessao de beneficios tarifarios para determinados segmentos de passageiros do transporte publico urbano no Brasil e altamente vinculada ao seu perfil etario – idosos, criancas e estudantes. Em geral, estes beneficios tarifarios sao financiados por subsidios cruzados, sendo o custo deles incorporado ao valor pago pelas passagens dos demais usuarios. Tomando como estudo de caso a Regiao Metropolitana de Sao Paulo (RMSP), este trabalho analisa em que medida a perspectiva de envelhecimento populacional em curso na regiao podera afetar o valor da tarifa cobrada no seu sistema de transporte publico. As analises sao feitas a partir de dados da Pesquisa Origem-Destino (OD) realizada em 2007 na RMSP e de projecoes demograficas elaboradas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) e pela Fundacao Sistema Estadual de Analise de Dados (Seade) para 2020, 2030 e 2050. Considerando os diferentes cenarios de projecao populacional, utiliza-se a tecnica de padronizacao direta para simular as mudancas esperadas na composicao das viagens do sistema de transporte, em termos de passageiros pagantes e nao pagantes. Os resultados indicam que, no curto prazo (2020), o envelhecimento populacional estimado para ocorrer na RMSP teria um efeito relativamente modesto sobre o numero total e a composicao etaria das viagens realizadas no transporte publico da regiao. No medio e longo prazos, contudo, o aumento previsto na proporcao de passageiros com gratuidades poderia ocasionar um aumento no sobrepreco da tarifa com uma elevacao de seu valor em cerca de 10% e 20%, caso seja mantido este mecanismo de subsidios cruzados. Students, children under 4 years old and people aged 65 and over in Brazil are entitled to partial or full discount on urban trips using public transport systems. These discounts are not covered by public funding, but rather by the other service users who pay full-fare.In this study, we estimate the effects population aging in Brazil will have on public transport fares in the next four decades. We focus on the case of Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (MA), the largest MA in the country. This paper is based on data from the Household Travel Survey conducted in Sao Paulo in 2007 and official population projections for Sao Paulo and Brazil for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050. Considering these different projection scenarios, we apply age-standardization methods to simulate the expected changes in the composition of public transport trips in terms of paying and non-paying passengers. According to our findings, the transformation in the age structure of Sao Paulo’s population in the short run (2020) should have little effect on public transport trips, both in terms of total number of trips and age composition. If the current cross-subsidies scheme is maintained over the medium and long term (2030 and 2050), though, we find that the increasing share of non-paying passengers could led to an increase in full-price fare by about 10% and 20%.

Envejecimiento de la población, gratuidad en el transporte público y sus efectos sobre las tarifas en la Región Metropolitana de São Paulo

A concessao de beneficios tarifarios para determinados segmentos de passageiros do transporte publico urbano no Brasil e altamente vinculada ao seu perfil etario – idosos, criancas e estudantes. Em geral, estes beneficios tarifarios sao financiados por subsidios cruzados, sendo o custo deles incorporado ao valor pago pelas passagens dos demais usuarios. Tomando como estudo de caso a Regiao Metropolitana de Sao Paulo (RMSP), este trabalho analisa em que medida a perspectiva de envelhecimento populacional em curso na regiao podera afetar o valor da tarifa cobrada no seu sistema de transporte publico. As analises sao feitas a partir de dados da Pesquisa Origem-Destino (OD) realizada em 2007 na RMSP e de projecoes demograficas elaboradas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) e pela Fundacao Sistema Estadual de Analise de Dados (Seade) para 2020, 2030 e 2050. Considerando os diferentes cenarios de projecao populacional, utiliza-se a tecnica de padronizacao direta para simular as mudancas esperadas na composicao das viagens do sistema de transporte, em termos de passageiros pagantes e nao pagantes. Os resultados indicam que, no curto prazo (2020), o envelhecimento populacional estimado para ocorrer na RMSP teria um efeito relativamente modesto sobre o numero total e a composicao etaria das viagens realizadas no transporte publico da regiao. No medio e longo prazos, contudo, o aumento previsto na proporcao de passageiros com gratuidades poderia ocasionar um aumento no sobrepreco da tarifa com uma elevacao de seu valor em cerca de 10% e 20%, caso seja mantido este mecanismo de subsidios cruzados. Students, children under 4 years old and people aged 65 and over in Brazil are entitled to partial or full discount on urban trips using public transport systems. These discounts are not covered by public funding, but rather by the other service users who pay full-fare.In this study, we estimate the effects population aging in Brazil will have on public transport fares in the next four decades. We focus on the case of Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (MA), the largest MA in the country. This paper is based on data from the Household Travel Survey conducted in Sao Paulo in 2007 and official population projections for Sao Paulo and Brazil for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050. Considering these different projection scenarios, we apply age-standardization methods to simulate the expected changes in the composition of public transport trips in terms of paying and non-paying passengers. According to our findings, the transformation in the age structure of Sao Paulo’s population in the short run (2020) should have little effect on public transport trips, both in terms of total number of trips and age composition. If the current cross-subsidies scheme is maintained over the medium and long term (2030 and 2050), though, we find that the increasing share of non-paying passengers could led to an increase in full-price fare by about 10% and 20%.

Population aging and the effects of free public transport on the fares in the metropolitan region of São Paulo

A concessao de beneficios tarifarios para determinados segmentos de passageiros do transporte publico urbano no Brasil e altamente vinculada ao seu perfil etario – idosos, criancas e estudantes. Em geral, estes beneficios tarifarios sao financiados por subsidios cruzados, sendo o custo deles incorporado ao valor pago pelas passagens dos demais usuarios. Tomando como estudo de caso a Regiao Metropolitana de Sao Paulo (RMSP), este trabalho analisa em que medida a perspectiva de envelhecimento populacional em curso na regiao podera afetar o valor da tarifa cobrada no seu sistema de transporte publico. As analises sao feitas a partir de dados da Pesquisa Origem-Destino (OD) realizada em 2007 na RMSP e de projecoes demograficas elaboradas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) e pela Fundacao Sistema Estadual de Analise de Dados (Seade) para 2020, 2030 e 2050. Considerando os diferentes cenarios de projecao populacional, utiliza-se a tecnica de padronizacao direta para simular as mudancas esperadas na composicao das viagens do sistema de transporte, em termos de passageiros pagantes e nao pagantes. Os resultados indicam que, no curto prazo (2020), o envelhecimento populacional estimado para ocorrer na RMSP teria um efeito relativamente modesto sobre o numero total e a composicao etaria das viagens realizadas no transporte publico da regiao. No medio e longo prazos, contudo, o aumento previsto na proporcao de passageiros com gratuidades poderia ocasionar um aumento no sobrepreco da tarifa com uma elevacao de seu valor em cerca de 10% e 20%, caso seja mantido este mecanismo de subsidios cruzados. Students, children under 4 years old and people aged 65 and over in Brazil are entitled to partial or full discount on urban trips using public transport systems. These discounts are not covered by public funding, but rather by the other service users who pay full-fare.In this study, we estimate the effects population aging in Brazil will have on public transport fares in the next four decades. We focus on the case of Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (MA), the largest MA in the country. This paper is based on data from the Household Travel Survey conducted in Sao Paulo in 2007 and official population projections for Sao Paulo and Brazil for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050. Considering these different projection scenarios, we apply age-standardization methods to simulate the expected changes in the composition of public transport trips in terms of paying and non-paying passengers. According to our findings, the transformation in the age structure of Sao Paulo’s population in the short run (2020) should have little effect on public transport trips, both in terms of total number of trips and age composition. If the current cross-subsidies scheme is maintained over the medium and long term (2030 and 2050), though, we find that the increasing share of non-paying passengers could led to an increase in full-price fare by about 10% and 20%.

Proyecciones de mano de obra calificada en Brasil: escenarios para la disponibilidad de ingenieros hasta 2020

This paper presents a method to project degree-holding workforces in specific areas of knowledge in Brazil. The method uses a set of bases of public data (SIM/Datasus, Demographic Censuses, Higher Education Censuses, and Household Surveys). By combining a compensating equation with a simplified model of entries into and departures from the labor market, the methodology enables year-by-year projections with unbundled by sex and by five-year age groups. The study also shows the results of applying this methodology to the simulation of scenarios on the availability of professionals with college degrees in engineering, production and construction, for the Brazilian labor market until 2020. The scenarios are different in function of possible periods of growth to be seen in the number of persons entering and concluding college-level courses in these areas. If recent trends solidify, the Brazilian workforce may have between 1.6 and 2.3 million persons who have earned degrees in engineering in Brazil in 2020. The results also indicate two major changes in this area in coming years: feminization and rejuvenation.

Projeções de mão de obra qualificada no Brasil: cenários para a disponibilidade de engenheiros até 2020

This paper presents a method to project degree-holding workforces in specific areas of knowledge in Brazil. The method uses a set of bases of public data (SIM/Datasus, Demographic Censuses, Higher Education Censuses, and Household Surveys). By combining a compensating equation with a simplified model of entries into and departures from the labor market, the methodology enables year-by-year projections with unbundled by sex and by five-year age groups. The study also shows the results of applying this methodology to the simulation of scenarios on the availability of professionals with college degrees in engineering, production and construction, for the Brazilian labor market until 2020. The scenarios are different in function of possible periods of growth to be seen in the number of persons entering and concluding college-level courses in these areas. If recent trends solidify, the Brazilian workforce may have between 1.6 and 2.3 million persons who have earned degrees in engineering in Brazil in 2020. The results also indicate two major changes in this area in coming years: feminization and rejuvenation.

Projections of skilled labor supply in Brazil: scenarios for the availability of engineers until 2020

This paper presents a method to project degree-holding workforces in specific areas of knowledge in Brazil. The method uses a set of bases of public data (SIM/Datasus, Demographic Censuses, Higher Education Censuses, and Household Surveys). By combining a compensating equation with a simplified model of entries into and departures from the labor market, the methodology enables year-by-year projections with unbundled by sex and by five-year age groups. The study also shows the results of applying this methodology to the simulation of scenarios on the availability of professionals with college degrees in engineering, production and construction, for the Brazilian labor market until 2020. The scenarios are different in function of possible periods of growth to be seen in the number of persons entering and concluding college-level courses in these areas. If recent trends solidify, the Brazilian workforce may have between 1.6 and 2.3 million persons who have earned degrees in engineering in Brazil in 2020. The results also indicate two major changes in this area in coming years: feminization and rejuvenation.