Rafael Muñoz-Mas

Assessment of brown trout habitat suitability in the Jucar River Basin (SPAIN): Comparison of data-driven approaches with fuzzy-logic models and univariate suitability curves

The implementation of the Water Framework Directive implies the determination of an environmental flow (E-flow) in each running water body. In Spain, many of the minimum flow assessments were determined with the physical habitat simulation system based on univariate habitat suitability curves. Multivariate habitat suitability models, widely applied in habitat assessment, are potentially more accurate than univariate suitability models. This article analyses the microhabitat selection by medium-sized (10-20 cm) brown trout (Salmo trutta fario) in three streams of the Jucar River Basin District (eastern Iberian Peninsula). The data were collected with an equal effort sampling approach. Univariate habitat suitability curves were built with a data-driven process for depth, mean velocity and substrate classes; three types of data-driven fuzzy models were generated with the FISH software: two models of presence-absence and a model of abundance. FISH applies a hill-climbing algorithm to optimize the fuzzy rules. A hydraulic model was calibrated with the tool River-2D in a segment of the Cabriel River (Jucar River Basin). The fuzzy-logic models and three methods to produce a suitability index from the three univariate curves were applied to evaluate the river habitat in the tool CASiMiR©. The comparison of results was based on the spatial arrangement of habitat suitability and the curves of weighted usable area versus discharge. The differences were relevant in different aspects, e.g. in the estimated minimum environmental flow according to the Spanish legal norm for hydrological planning. This work demonstrates the impact of the models selection on the habitat suitability modelling and the assessment of environmental flows, based on an objective data-driven procedure; the conclusions are important for the water management in the Jucar River Basin and other river systems in Europe, where the environmental flows are a keystone for the achievement of the goals established in the European Water Framework Directive.

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems.

Random forests to evaluate biotic interactions in fish distribution models

Previous research indicated that high predictive performance in species distribution modelling can be obtained by combining both biotic and abiotic habitat variables. However, models developed for fish often only address physical habitat characteristics, thus omitting potentially important biotic factors. Therefore, we assessed the impact of biotic variables on fish habitat preferences in four selected stretches of the upper Cabriel River (E Spain). The occurrence of Squalius pyrenaicus and Luciobarbus guiraonis was related to environmental variables describing biotic interactions (inferred by relationships among fish abundances) and channel hydro-morphological characteristics. Random Forests (RF) models were trained and then validated using independent datasets. To build RF models, the conditional variable importance was used together with the model improvement ratio technique. The procedure showed effectiveness in identifying a parsimonious set of not correlated variables, which minimize noise and improve model performance in both training and validation phases. Water depth, channel width, fine substrate and water-surface gradient were selected as most important habitat variables for both fish. Results showed clear habitat overlapping between fish species and suggest that competition is not a strong factor in the study area. We modeled fish distribution at the mesohabitat scale using Random Forests (RF).We evaluated the effect of interspecific interactions on fish habitat use.RF models are validated using an independent dataset and showed high performance.Results showed a clear habitat overlapping between fish species.Fish interspecific competition seems to be a negligible factor for habitat use.

Application of Probabilistic Neural Networks to microhabitat suitability modelling for adult brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in Iberian rivers

Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN) have been tested for the first time in microhabitat suitability modelling for adult brown trout (Salmo trutta L.). The impact of data prevalence on PNN was studied. The PNN were evaluated in an independent river and the applicability of PNN to assess the environmental flow was analysed. Prevalence did not affect significantly the results. However PNN presented some limitations regarding the output range. Our results agreed previous studies because trout preferred deep microhabitats with medium-to-coarse substrate whereas velocity showed a wider suitable range. The 0.5 prevalence PNN showed similar classificatory capability than the 0.06 prevalence counterpart and the outputs covered the whole feasible range (from 0 to 1), but the 0.06 prevalence PNN showed higher generalisation because it performed better in the evaluation and it allowed a better modulation of the environmental flow. PNN has demonstrated to be a tool to be into consideration.

Comparing four methods for decision-tree induction: A case study on the invasive Iberian gudgeon (Gobio lozanoi; Doadrio and Madeira, 2004)

The invasion of freshwater ecosystems is a particularly alarming phenomenon in the Iberian Peninsula. Habitat suitability modelling is a proficient approach to extract knowledge about species ecology and to guide adequate management actions. Decision-trees are an interpretable modelling technique widely used in ecology, able to handle strongly nonlinear relationships with high order interactions and diverse variable types. Decision-trees recursively split the input space into two parts maximising child node homogeneity. This recursive partitioning is typically performed with axis-parallel splits in a top-down fashion. However, recent developments of the R packages oblique.tree, which allows the development of oblique split-based decision-trees, and evtree, which performs globally optimal searches with evolutionary algorithms to do so, seem to outperform the standard axis-parallel top-down algorithms; CART and C5.0. To evaluate their possible use in ecology, the two new partitioning algorithms were compared with the two well-known, standard axis-parallel algorithms. The entire process was performed in R by simultaneously tuning the decision-tree parameters and the variables subset with a genetic algorithm and modelling the presence–absence of the Iberian gudgeon (Gobio lozanoi; Doadrio and Madeira, 2004), an invasive fish species that has spread across the Iberian Peninsula. The accuracy and complexity of the trees, the modelled patterns of mesohabitat selection and the variables importance were compared. None of the new R packages, namely oblique.tree and evtree, outperformed the C5.0 algorithm. They rendered almost the same decision-trees as the CART algorithm, although they were completely interpretable – they performed from four to eight partitions – in comparison with C5.0, which resulted in a more complex structure with 17 partitions. Oblique.tree proved to be affected by prevalence and it does not include the possibility of weighting the observations, which potentially discourage its actual use. Although the use of evtree did not suggest a major improvement compared with the remaining packages, it allowed the development of regression trees which may be informative for additional modelling tasks such as abundance estimation. Looking at the resulting decision-trees, the optimal habitats for the Iberian gudgeon were large pools in lowland river segments with depositional areas and aquatic vegetation present, which typically appeared in the form of scattered macrophytes clumps. Furthermore, Iberian gudgeon seems to avoid habitats characterised by scouring phenomena and limited vegetated cover availability. Accordingly, we can assume that river regulation and artificial impoundment would have favoured the spread of the Iberian gudgeon across the entire peninsula.

Microhabitat competition between Iberian fish species and the endangered Júcar nase (Parachondrostoma arrigonis; Steindachner, 1866)

ABSTRACT Competition with invasive species is recognized as having a major impact on biodiversity conservation. The upper part of the Cabriel River (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) harbours the most important population of the Júcar nase (Parachondrostoma arrigonis; Steindachner, 1866), a fish species in imminent danger of extinction. Currently, this species cohabits with several non-native species, such as the Iberian nase (Pseudochondrostoma polylepis; Steindachner, 1864) and the bermejuela (Achondrostoma arcasii; Steindachner, 1866). The potential habitat competition with these species was studied by analysing the spatial and temporal overlapping of suitable microhabitats. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) were developed to model microhabitat selection and these GAMMs were used to assess the habitat suitability (i.e. probability of presence) under several flows simulated with River2D. The Júcar nase will compete, spatially and temporally, for the few suitable microhabitats with bermejuela and, to a lesser extent, with small Iberian nase; conversely, large Iberian nase was of minor concern, due to increased differences in habitat preferences. This study represents an important assessment of potential competition and, therefore, these results might assist to better define future management practices in the upper part of the Cabriel River.

Determining the macroinvertebrate community indicators and relevant environmental predictors of the Hun-Tai River Basin (Northeast China): A study based on community patterning

It is essential to understand the patterning of biota and environmental influencing factors for proper rehabilitation and management at the river basin scale. The Hun-Tai River Basin was extensively sampled four times for macroinvertebrate community and environmental variables during one year. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) were used to reveal the aggregation patterns of the 355 samples. Three community types (i.e., clusters) were found (at the family level) based on the community composition, which showed a clearly gradient by combining them with the representative environmental variables: minimally impacted source area, intermediately anthropogenic impacted sites, and highly anthropogenic impacted downstream area, respectively. This gradient was corroborated by the decreasing trends in density and diversity of macroinvertebrates. Distance from source, total phosphorus and water temperature were identified as the most important variables that distinguished the delineated communities. In addition, the sampling season, substrate type, pH and the percentage of grassland were also identified as relevant variables. These results demonstrated that macroinvertebrates communities are structured in a hierarchical manner where geographic and water quality prevail over temporal (season) and habitat (substrate type) features at the basin scale. In addition, it implied that the local-scale environment variables affected macroinvertebrates under the longitudinal gradient of the geographical and anthropogenic pressure. More than one family was identified as the indicator for each type of community. Abundance contributed significantly for distinguishing the indicators, while Baetidae with higher density indicated minimally and intermediately impacted area and lower density indicated highly impacted area. Therefore, we suggested the use of abundance data in community patterning and classification, especially in the identification of the indicator taxa.

Exploring the key drivers of riparian woodland successional pathways across three European river reaches

Climate change and river regulation are negatively impacting riparian vegetation. To evaluate these impacts, process‐based models are preferred over data‐driven approaches. However, they require extensive knowledge about ecohydrological processes. To facilitate the implementation of such process‐based models, the key drivers of riparian woodland successional pathways across three river reaches, in Austria, Portugal, and Spain, were explored, employing two complementary approaches. The principal component analyses highlighted the importance of the physical gradients determining the placement of the succession phases within the riparian and floodplain zones. The generalized additive models revealed that the initial and pioneer succession phases, characteristic of the colonization stage, appeared in areas highly morphodynamic, close in height and distance to the water table, and with coarse substrate, whereas elder phases within the transitional and mature stages showed incremental differences, occupying less dynamic areas with finer substrate. The Austrian site fitted well the current successional theory (elder phases appearing sequentially further up and distant), but at the Portuguese site, the tolerance of the riparian species to drought and flash flood events governed their placement. Finally, at the Spanish site, the patchy distribution of the elder phases was the remnants of formative events that reshaped the river channel. These results highlight the complex relationships between flow regime, channel morphology, and riparian vegetation. The use of succession phases, which rely on the sequential evolution of riparian vegetation as a response to different drivers, may be potentially better reproducible, within numerical process‐based models, and transferable to other geographical regions.

Application of the physical habitat simulation for fish species to assess environmental flows in an Atlantic Forest Stream in South-eastern Brazil

The physical habitat simulation sub-routine of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) uses hydraulic modeling and suitability indices of target fish species to predict how differences in-stream flows affect the microhabitat occupation by fish species. This habitat modelling approach was adopted to assess the ecological effects of running flows on three neotropical fish species of different orders (Bryconamericus ornaticeps , Ancistrus multispinis and Geophagus brasiliensis ).The study encompassed two reaches of an Atlantic Forest stream in Southeastern Brazil where topographic and hydraulic (depth, velocity and type of substrate) characteristics were measured to implement one-dimensional hydraulic simulation. Sub aquatic observation of fish was performed to collect data on microhabitat use and these data were used to develop habitat suitability curves that were used in the habitat simulation to obtain the habitat suitability index (HSI) and weighted usable area (WUA) versus flow curves. Upon these curves minimum and optimum environmental flows for the target fish species were proposed. Bryconamericus ornaticeps and A. multispinis selected microhabitats around 0.6 m depth, whereas G. brasiliensis showed a wider suitable range (0.35-0.9 m). All the three species were mainly observed in microhabitat with low flow velocity (0.1 m/s). Bryconamericus ornaticeps selected more frequently coarse substrate (e.g. boulders) but it appeared also over sandy substrate, whereas A. multispinis and G. brasiliensis selected preferably boulders. The range of 0.65-0.85 m3/s was found as the optimum to meet the needs of the three fish species. Our results agree with the necessary objective information to perform grounded management actions in the frame of a management program aiming at ecosystem conservation. Thereby it can be considered a successful pilot study in environmental flow assessment in an Atlantic Forest stream of Brazil.