Rafał Wolski

Measures of Downside Risk Under Conditions of Downturn in the Real Estate Market

Abstract Some authors suggest that the use of standard deviation as a measure of total risk for returns on real estate leads to risk overestimation, as the classical Markowitz model does not account for the skewness of financial data, thus making the results unreliable. According to the available literature, risk calculated on the basis of standard semideviation may actually better reflect the nature of property investment. However, in this context, the question of whether or not this measure will lead to risk underestimation at a time of a downturn in the real estate market, resulting in inadequate investment decisions aggravating investor losses arises. Therefore, the present paper presents portfolios constructed using either classical risk measures or measures based on “downside deviations” of rates of return. The results of investment in these portfolios are analyzed.

Investment Risk in the Context of Price Changes on the Real Estate and Stock Markets

Abstract The residential real estate market is thought to show a tendency for wide fluctuations in prices, as a result of which price bubbles appear. This element of risk has a direct bearing on investors interested in speculation and those seeking to meet their housing needs. Wide fluctuations in the values of real estate affect the investors’ financial situation in many ways, by determining the possibility of meeting one’s housing needs, reducing or sometimes raising creditworthiness, and by increasing investment risk measured by volatility. Omitting the obvious social dimension of the residential real estate market and concentrating on its financial aspects, the author of the article analyses to what degree wide swings in prices can be recognized as specific to this market. To this end, the volatility of prices in the stock market and in the secondary housing market in Poland is compared. An analysis is performed to establish which of them has higher average volatility measures or rates of return, i.e. which of them is more profitable or secure for investors. Statistical tests are used to find out whether average rates of return or measures of risk are equal or different between the two markets. The results of the research show that the secondary housing market and the stock market differ concerning cumulative average rates of return and standard deviations. In the first of them, they are respectively higher and lower.

Application of the Beta Coefficient in the Market of Direct residential Real Estate Investments

Abstract The beta coefficient is one of the most popular indices used in contemporary finances. Despite the fact that there are justified doubts connected with its application, it is currently difficult to imagine a situation in which the cost of capital would be calculated without the use of the CAPM model. Thus, an attempt at answering the question whether and to what degree beta may be used in the real estate market constitutes an interesting problem. This is because on the one hand, the formal structure suggests that beta should not be used for assets which are not included in the benchmark but, on the other hand, such a benchmark should, at least theoretically, contain all market assets. Therefore, a decision was made to have a closer look at this issue, with the analysis of the possibility of using the beta coefficient in the residential real estate market set as the objective. Using the database of prices in the direct real estate investment created by the NBP, a comparison was conducted with regard to features of undertaken investments on the basis of an analysis of systematic risk calculated using selected indices available on the Polish market.

The Influence of Negative Beta Assets on the Empirical SML in the Polish Capital Market

The Influence of Negative Beta Assets on the Empirical SML in the Polish Capital Market The classical approach to the SML assumes that it is a straight line, which means that an investor is willing to accept lower return on the negative beta assets than on the risk-free assets. However, Cloninger, Waller, Bendeck and Revere (2004) challenged this commonly accepted approach. The author of the paper decided to verify the approach using empirical data for years 1999-2006 obtained from the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Finance theoreticians believe that the SML is linear, which means that an investor buying negative beta assets is willing to accept lower return than in the case of a risk-free asset. Cloninger et al. (2004) formulated a hypothesis stating that the SML is V-shaped and that it is not a straight line. It was concluded that an investor had no reason to accept lower return of the negative beta assets; quite the contrary, the investor would expect the same return as on the positive beta ones. The author of this article performed an investigation for the Polish market, taking advantage of companies quoted at the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The investigation demonstrated that between 1999 and 2006, the SML had a V-like shape and thus the research hypothesis formulated in the article was positively verified.

Changing activity in the construction sector in selected states 2003-2012

Abstract Construction companies are important economic actors in every country. Their activity translates into employment levels, tax revenues, and the provision of new spaces that require further expenditure on equipment, thus stimulating consumer spending. The activity of construction companies depends on the demand for space, the state of the economy and the financial market. Undoubtedly economic disturbances in the form of a recession have a significant impact on construction activity. The authors were interested in whether the boom and recession in the selected countries were similarly reflected in the activity of construction companies. In particular, they were interested in residential construction activity, although it was not possible to select companies that would only deal with residential construction. The authors selected four post-socialist countries and two countries which are called winners of the integration process due to their enormous economic growth. The authors outline the residential construction and construction sector results and activity in the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Spain and Ireland, and draw a wider picture for analyses of construction companies’ financial results for the years 2003-2012. This period was chosen because it covered periods of both boom and bust. All enterprises were part of the sector denoted in the Amadeus database as primary code: Eurostat NACE Rev. 2 with codes: 41 - Construction of buildings: 4110 - Development of building projects, 4120 - Construction of residential and non-residential buildings. Due to the specificity of the construction sector the authors divided the surveyed enterprises into two groups – all companies; and only large and very large companies. It was not possible to separate data specifically with respect to residential construction companies.

Closed-End Real Estate Funds in Comparison with other Investment Opportunities in Poland

Abstract The first closed-end real estate investment funds in Poland began to appear in 2004, along with the development of the capital market and the real estate market. The funds invested both in the housing market and in the commercial market. In general, they encouraged potential investors to purchase investment fund units by pointing to positive results obtained by similar funds in other countries, as well as the dynamic growth of prices in domestic real estate markets. However, the analysis of the performance of closed-end real estate funds in Poland shows that they have failed to earn satisfactory rates of return. The aim of the study was to compare their performance with the profitability of other investment instruments in the 2004 to 2014 period. In addition, the authors aimed to establish why closed-end real estate funds had failed to succeed in Poland, by analyzing, among other things, their institutional context. The study was based on a comparison of the characteristics and performance of particular funds, and also analyzed the profitability of selected alternative investments.

RISK AND RETURN IN THE REAL ESTATE, BOND AND STOCK MARKETS

Abstract Studies investigating the relation between risk and return occupy an important place in the discussion about the effectiveness of investing in real estate. A review of the available studies shows that real estate investments are less profitable than stocks, but in terms of risk and return, are usually the best option. This worldwide regularity may not necessarily be presented in Poland, as the Polish market is not fully fledged yet. The analysis presented in this article was performed with a view to reducing a research gap resulting from the lack of comprehensive Polish studies in this field. In the article, data spanning the years from 2006 to 2016 are examined by means of descriptive statistics, measures of risk, and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) to determine which of the following investment vehicles - bonds, real estate or stocks - offer the best risk-return ratio. The article has two parts. The analytical part is a review of studies on risk measurement methods and of earlier studies investigating risk and return by a class of assets (particularly real estate). In the empirical part, assets are compared with the use of statistical methods. The results of the risk-return analysis point to the money market as the best option for investors. Stocks and real estate ranked second and third, respectively.

Polish real property funds’ investment results – an attempt of evaluation

Real estate investment means not only direct purchase of rights to real property but also investing in securities issued by real property investment funds. There are various legal and organizational forms of these actors, Real Estate Investment Trust – US type is dominant but there are often national forms what enriches instruments of real property markets. Investment results indicate that direct and indirect types of investment are not identical, although they have roots in the same real property markets. The differences have been repeatedly investigated in relation to different markets and time periods. This research problem inspired the authors to trace the results of Polish real property investment funds and direct real estate investments. The analysis showed a very big difference – investors of real property funds suffered significant losses and results of direct real property investment were positive. The aim of the authors was to examine the difference between these results and search for their causes. They used method of economic analysis and examined the text of legal regulation.

The Polish real estate market as an area for developers

The Polish real estate market have coped with an economic slowdown quite well. However, some sectors and localisations developed in different pace. The authors would like to describe some factors influencing the conditions of the real estate market and its current level of development. Having this background the authors would like to analyse financial results of developers dividing them into different categories. The authors would like to find what kind of developers have found the best solutions and strategies in changing economic environment.

Analysis of the Financial Situation of Medium-Sized and Large Enterprises of the Construction Sector in Selected Central European Coutries

Abstract The economy is subject to periodic changes in activity, which is apparent in the financial situation of households and enterprises. However, the recent economic crisis has been particularly severe. After the great increase in economic activity, which in many countries was connected with the boom in the real estate market, it experienced a sudden turn for the worse, including the broadly understood construction sector. This contributed to a slowdown of the growth rate, or even a permanent economic downturn. The authors have undertaken an analysis of the situation in the construction sector and the condition of residential real estate markets in selected Central European countries, and next, on the basis of a database on the financial situation of selected construction companies constructing buildings in those countries, searched for an answer to the question of how much the construction sector and the analyzed enterprises changed their activity in the recent years. For the purpose of the analysis, a database of over 340 entities from the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary was created. The work is of a comparative nature, which allows the scale of the processes studied in the individual countries to be identified.