Raffaela Giordano

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR Model

This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on private GDP, inflation and the long-term interest rate in Italy using a structural vector autoregression model. To this end, a database of quarterly cash data for selected fiscal variables for the period 1982:1-2004:4 is constructed, largely relying on the information contained in the Italian Treasury Quarterly Reports. The main results of the study can be summarized as follows. A shock to government purchases of goods and services has a sizeable and robust effect on economic activity: an exogenous one per cent (in terms of private GDP) shock increases private real GDP by 0.6 per cent after 3 quarters. The response goes to zero after two years, reflecting with a lag the low persistence of the shock. The effects on employment, private consumption and investment are also positive. The response of inflation is positive but small and short-lived. In contrast, public wages, which in many studies are lumped together with purchases, have no significant effect on output, while the effects on employment turn negative after two quarters. Shocks to net revenue have negligible effects on all the variables.

What determines debt intolerance? The role of political and monetary institutions

Why do some states default on their debt more often than others? We argue that sovereign default is the outcome of a political struggle among different groups of citizens. It is more likely to happen if: (i) domestic debt-holders are relatively weak; (ii) the political costs of the financial turmoil typically triggered by a sovereign bankrupcy are small. We show that these conditions are in turn more likely to be present if a country lacks a well-developed financial system and/or a sufficiently independent central bank.

Market-Induced Fiscal Discipline: Is There a Fall-Back Solution for Rule Failure?

Fiscal discipline is a public good in federations. As with all public goods, there is a free-riding risk. Hence the need for discipline-inducing mechanisms. EU countries decided to adopt a rule-based framework, which is currently heavily criticised and which may come under further pressure with the enlargement of the EU. The paper reconsider the debate which took place before the approval of the Maastricht Treaty and asks whether market mechanisms can be relied upon as a fall-back solution in case of rule-failure. The issue is tackled in three steps. First, the conditions for an effective market solution are examined and the European institutional framework is assessed against them. Second, the relationship between fiscal performance, credit rating and interest rates is discussed, with reference to both what is expected in theory and what is found in practice. Finally, governments’ sensitivity to market signals is analysed. The findings point to a significant, though small, reaction of interest rates to fiscal imbalances, and to a not so prompt response by governments. The conclusion is thus that market mechanisms cannot be relied upon for replacing fiscal rules. However, greater transparency in fiscal accounts can allow markets to usefully complements rules.

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Italy: Estimates with a Svar Model

This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on private GDP, inflation and interest rates in Italy using a structural Vector Autoregression. For this purpose a database of quarterly cash data for selected fiscal variables for the period 1982:1-2003:4 is constructed, largely on the basis of the information contained in the Italian Treasury Quarterly Reports. The main results of the study can be summarized as follows. A shock to government purchases of goods and services has a sizeable and robust effect on economic activity: an exogenous one per cent (in terms of private GDP) shock raises private real GDP by 0.6 per cent after 3 quarters. The response of GDP goes to zero after two years, reflecting with a lag the low persistence of the shock. The effects on private consumption and investment are positive; the reaction of inflation is also positive but limited and short-lived. In contrast, public wages, which in many studies are lumped together with purchases, have no significant effect on GDP in the short-run; a negative and significant effect emerges after two years. The reactions of inflation and interest rates are positive and larger than in the case of a shock to purchases. Finally, shocks to net revenue have negligible effects on all the macroeconomic variables.

The public sector pay gap in Italy

I investigate the public-private pay gap using Italian microdata covering the period 1980-2006. Even after controlling for observable characteristics of the labour force, I find a positive wage premium for the public sector, almost negligible during the eighties and averaging at about 12 percent in the period 1993-2006. While the pay gap for women and workers in southern regions turns out to be higher than the average in the whole sample period, the greater advantage from working in the public sector that low-skilled workers seemed to enjoy up to 1995, disappears afterwards. Moreover, whereas managers in the public sector appear almost always penalized relatively to those working in the private sector, for workers with graduate or post-graduate degrees the wage differential is negative before 1993; afterwards it becomes positive, and starts exceeding the average premium in 2000. Finally, a simple comparison of GDP growth rates with public-private wage differentials shows a negative correlation between these two variables. After relatively favourable macroeconomic conditions during the eighties, a slowing in the economic activity accompanied the observed widening of the pay gap.

The Public Sector Pay Gap in a Selection of Euro Area Countries in the Pre-crisis Period

We investigate the public-private wage differentials in ten euro area countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain). To account for differences in employment characteristics between the two sectors, we focus on micro data taken from EU-SILC. The results point to a conditional pay differential in favour of the public sector that is generally higher for women, at the low tail of the wage distribution, in the Education and the Public administration sectors rather than in the Health sector. Notable differences emerge across countries, with Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain exhibiting higher public sector premia than other countries. JEL Classification: J31, J45, O52

Dealing with Unexpected Shocks to the Budget

We assess the impact of unexpected shocks to real interest rates and GDP growth on government budgets for nine European Union countries. Shocks are estimated as onestep-ahead forecast errors arising from a recursive bivariate VAR model. Our analysis is relevant, in particular, to deciding what safety margins are needed to limit the risk of the deficits exceeding the 3% Maastricht threshold. The approach followed differs in two respects from standard analyses aiming at defining budgetary positions that satisfy the Stability and Growth Pact. First, whereas the latter examine only fluctuations in economic activity, we also consider fluctuations in interest rates. Second, whereas standard analyses focus on deviations from trends and define margins for the mediumterm cyclically adjusted balance, we examine unexpected shocks and define margins for nominal balances. The results point to significant differences in the required margins across countries.