Raffaele Cortignani

An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment

Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ETN), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ETN may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy.

CAP's environmental policy and land use in arable farms: An impacts assessment of greening practices changes in Italy

The study assesses the possible impact of first pillar reform of the Common Agricultural Policy by focusing on the new greening rules defined by the recent Omnibus regulation. The analysis was carried out on a Farm Accountancy Data Network sample of Italian farms using by a Positive Mathematical Programming model. Moreover, our analysis is stratified by geographical area and altimetric level and uses some additional environmental and social indicators beyond those economic. The results indicate that the new greening rules generate positive but limited environmental impacts, which reinforce those already determined by the previous CAP reform, for example the use of chemical fertilizers is further reduced. These additional positive environmental impacts are obtained with very limited income reductions. Yet, the impacts on the various geographical areas and their altimetric levels are different, and sometimes controversial. For example, there is a growth in the use of pesticides in the northern plains, due to the increase in rice and soybean areas. On the other hand, agricultural employment in Southern Italy decreases, where agriculture is an important source of employment for the rural population. This reduction also affects the mountain areas, thus accentuating the already high risk of abandonment. All this suggests that more targeted measures will have to be implemented in the future planning of agricultural policy, so as to shape the various actions according to the characteristics of the various rural areas, as well as to the specific priorities of the Member State.

Una valutazione integrata degli impatti produttivi ed economici del cambiamento della variabilità climatica in un’area mediterranea irrigua

Una valutazione integrata degli impatti produttivi ed economici del cambiamento della variabilita climatica in un’area mediterranea irrigua Quest’articolo analizza l’effetto dei cambiamenti climatici su temperature, piovosita, esigenze irrigue e disponibilita idrica di un’area mediterranea, integrando relazioni bio-fisiche ed economiche. L’analisi della distribuzione di probabilita (Pdf) delle variabili climatiche mostra che nel futuro prossimo aumentera la probabilita di avere temperature e fabbisogni irrigui alti e disponibilita idrica bassa. Un modello economico simula le scelte delle imprese agricole data l’incertezza rappresentata dalla variabilita delle Pdf. Le colture soffrono soprattutto per la minore disponibilita idrica, che si puo contrastare migliorando le infrastrutture irrigue collettive. La produzione del latte bovino patisce l’aumento delle temperature, che si puo mitigare con sistemi di raffrescamento.

Assessing the economic and productive impact of climate change in a Mediterranean irrigated agricultural area subject to water shortage

Climate changes in agriculture act on various climate variables (precipitation, temperature etc.) at different times of crop cycles. Many physical and technical relationships have to be represented even when analyzing a limited aspect of farm management. This work employs the net evapotranspiration (ETN) estimated with the EPIC model, as a synthetic index of the physical factors that the farmer considers in decisions on irrigation. The probability distribution of ETN is inserted into a territorial model of DSP that represents farm choices in conditions of uncertainty about water availability and irrigation requirements of crops. Recent trends of ETN suggest that the probability distribution of this variable may appreciably change in the near future. Also, water availabil- ity may become more variable due to changed rainfall. These modifications amplify uncertainty of management and, consequently, costs incurred by the farm typologies of the study area, which in many cases suffer an appreciable drop in income.

An evaluation of the economic impact of climate change by a 3-stage discrete stochastic programming model

Climate changes in agriculture act on various climate variables (precipitation, temperature etc.) and at different times of crop cycles. This paper provides an evaluation of the economic impact of changes in multiple events and the associated uncertainty in an area of Sardinia, through a multidisciplinary approach, namely economic and agronomic. The economic approach uses a three stages Discrete Stochastic Programming model, while the irrigation requirements of some major crops for the agricultural economy of the area uses the EPIC agronomic model. The results show that the whole agricultural area adapt itself with a low cost, changing crops or cultural practices. This cost, however, is higher for certain types of farms that suffer a significant income reduction.