Rafiq Hamdi

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no comparison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling approaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux.

Inclusion of a Drag Approach in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) Scheme: Offline 1D Evaluation in a Street Canyon

The Town Energy Balance module bridges the micro- and mesoscale and simulates local-scale urban surface energy balance for use in mesoscale meteorological models. Previous offline evaluations show that this urban module is able to simulate in good behavior road, wall, and roof temperatures and to correctly partition radiation forcing into turbulent and storage heat fluxes. However, to improve prediction of the meteorological fields inside the street canyon, a new version has been developed, following the methodology described in a companion paper by Masson and Seity. It resolves the surface boundary layer inside and above urban canopy by introducing a drag force approach to account for the vertical effects of buildings. This new version is tested offline, with one-dimensional simulation, in a street canyon using atmospheric and radiation data recorded at the top of a 30-m-high tower as the upper boundary conditions. Results are compared with simulations using the original single-layer version of the Town Energy Balance module on one hand and with measurements within and above a street canyon on the other hand. Measurements were obtained during the intensive observation period of the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment. Results show that this new version produces profiles of wind speed, friction velocity, turbulent kinetic energy, turbulent heat flux, and potential temperature that are more consistent with observations than with the single-layer version. Furthermore, this new version can still be easily coupled to mesoscale meteorological models.

Effects of Historical Urbanization in the Brussels Capital Region on Surface Air Temperature Time Series: A Model Study

Abstract The authors examine the local impact of change in impervious surfaces in the Brussels capital region (BCR), Belgium, on trends in maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures between 1960 and 1999. Specifically, data are combined from remote sensing imagery and a land surface model including state-of-the-art urban parameterization—the Town Energy Balance scheme. To (i) isolate effects of urban growth on near-surface temperature independent of atmospheric circulations and (ii) be able to run the model over a very long period without any computational cost restrictions, the land surface model is run in a stand-alone mode coupled to downscaled 40-yr ECMWF reanalysis data. BCR was considered a lumped urban volume and the rate of urbanization was assessed by estimating the percentage of impervious surfaces from Landsat images acquired for various years. Model simulations show that (i) the annual mean urban bias (AMUB) on minimum temperature is rising at a higher rate (almost 3 times more) than on maximum t...

Urban Surface Energy Balance Models: Model Characteristics and Methodology for a Comparison Study

Many urban surface energy balance models now exist. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a concrete slab, to those which incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed within the atmospheric boundary layer. While many of these schemes have been evaluated against observations, with some models even compared with the same data sets, such evaluations have not been undertaken in a controlled manner to enable direct comparison. For other types of climate model, for instance the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) experiments (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1993), such controlled comparisons have been shown to provide important insights into both the mechanics of the models and the physics of the real world. This paper describes the progress that has been made to date on a systematic and controlled comparison of urban surface schemes. The models to be considered, and their key attributes, are described, along with the methodology to be used for the evaluation.

Study of the Lateral Boundary Condition Temporal Resolution Problem and a Proposed Solution by Means of Boundary Error Restarts

To properly utilize coupled limited-area models (LAMs), the time scales of the cross-boundary fluxes in the available lateral boundary data must be assessed. In current operational practice, the update frequencies of these data are usually determined by common sense guesswork and by technical constraints. This paper quantifies the required temporal resolution of the lateral boundary conditions. For a mesoscale LAM it is concluded that in standard forecast cases, coupling updates of about 3 h are sufficient. However, in rare cases of severe storms, this can lead to errors in the coupling data of about 10 hPa. To avoid such errors, it is found that one should update the coupling fields with the period given by the time step of the model that provides the coupling data. However, in most existing operational applications this is not feasible. For those cases, it is shown that the forecast can be substantially improved by restarting the model run at a forecast range when the storm has entered the domain. The proper restart time can be detected in an operational suite by an existing strategy of monitoring the coupling update frequency. Additionally, it is argued that the forecast should then be initialized by a scale-selective digital filter.

Coupling the Town Energy Balance (TEB) Scheme to an Operational Limited-Area NWP Model: Evaluation for a Highly Urbanized Area in Belgium

AbstractThe Town Energy Balance (TEB) single-layer scheme is implemented in a numerical weather prediction model running operationally at ~4-km resolution. The primary question addressed is the ability of TEB to function at this relatively coarse resolution and, thus, assessing its potential use in an operational configuration to improve sensible weather performance over Belgium. For this effort, simulations with and without TEB are first evaluated against 2-m observations and wind above the urban canopy for two months (January and July 2010). The results show that promising improvements are achieved by introducing TEB. The 2-m temperature and 2-m relative humidity improve compared to measurements in urban areas. The comparison of wind speed and wind direction above the urban canopy indicates that the structure of the flow in urban areas is better reproduced with TEB. It was found that the implementation of TEB results in an increase in winter precipitation over urban areas and downwind from urban areas, ...

Application of Boyd’s Periodization and Relaxation Method in a Spectral Atmospheric Limited-Area Model. Part I: Implementation and Reproducibility Tests

AbstractThis paper describes the implementation of a proposal of Boyd for the periodization and relaxation of the fields in a full three-dimensional spectral semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian limited-area model structure of an atmospheric modeling system called HARMONIE that is used for numerical weather prediction and regional climate studies. Some first feasibility tests in an operational numerical weather prediction context are presented. They show that, in terms of standard operational forecast scores, Boyd’s windowing-based method provides comparable performance as the old existing spline-based periodization procedure. However, the real improvements of this method should be expected in specific cases of strong dynamical forcings at the lateral boundaries. An extensive demonstration of the superiority of this windowing-based method is provided in an accompanying paper.

Predicting Small-Scale, Short-Lived Downbursts: Case Study with the NWP Limited-Area ALARO Model for the Pukkelpop Thunderstorm

AbstractThe authors consider a thunderstorm event in 2011 during a music festival in Belgium that produced a short-lived downburst of a diameter of less than 100 m. This is far too small to be resolved by the kilometric resolutions of today’s operational numerical weather prediction models. Operational forecast models will not run at hectometric resolutions in the foreseeable future. The storm caused five casualties and raised strong societal questions regarding the predictability of such a traumatic weather event.In this paper it is investigated whether the downdrafts of a parameterization scheme of deep convection can be used as proxies for the unresolved downbursts. To this end the operational model ALARO [a version of the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle-Aire Limitee Adaptation Dynamique Developpement International (ARPEGE-ALADIN) operational limited area model with a revised and modular structure of the physical parameterizations] of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium is u...

Application of Boyd’s Periodization and Relaxation Method in a Spectral Atmospheric Limited-Area Model. Part II: Accuracy Analysis and Detailed Study of the Operational Impact

AbstractSpectral limited-area models face a particular challenge at their lateral boundaries: the fields need to be made periodic. Boyd proposed a windowing-based method to improve the periodization and relaxation. In a companion paper, the implementation of this windowing method in the operational semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian spectral HARMONIE system was described and some first reproducibility tests, comparing this method to the old existing one, were presented.The present paper provides an in-depth study of the impact of this method for different configurations of the implementation. This is carried out in three steps in well-controlled experimental setups of increasing complexity. First, different aspects of Boyd’s method are analyzed in an idealized perfect-model test using a representative 1D shallow-water model. Second, the implementation is tested in an adiabatic 3D numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with perfect-model experiments. Finally, the impact of using Boyd’s method in a more operat...

Improving the Temporal Resolution Problem by Localized Gridpoint Nudging in Regional Weather and Climate Models

AbstractMost regional numerical models in the atmospheric sciences use temporally interpolated data provided by other low-resolution models, either for a gridpoint coupling at their lateral boundaries or for a spectral nudging of the large scales in the entire domain. In some cases, such as fast-propagating storms, these interpolations can seriously corrupt the meteorological fields.This article shows how to use an operational high-pass filter of the surface pressure field to detect and to localize a propagating storm, and to use this information to locally reinject the available uncorrupted storm in the coupled model. This is achieved by applying a technique of gridpoint nudging in a subarea of the domain, limited to a compact region around the eye of the depression. As an application it is shown that this restores the strength of the storm, while leaving the model state in the rest of the domain quasi intact. It is then discussed how this can improve numerical weather prediction and regional climate models.