Rahmatallah Poudineh

Investment and Efficiency under Incentive Regulation: The Case of the Norwegian Electricity Distribution Networks

Following the liberalisation of the electricity industry since the early 1990s, many sector regulators have recognised the potential for cost efficiency improvement in the networks through incentive regulation aided by benchmarking and productivity analysis. This approach has often resulted in cost efficiency and quality of service improvement. However, there remains a growing concern as to whether the utilities invest sufficiently and efficiently in maintaining and modernising the networks to ensure long term reliability and also to meet future challenges of the grid. This paper analyses the relationship between investments and cost efficiency in the context of incentive regulation with ex-post regulatory treatment of investments using a panel dataset of 126 Norwegian distribution companies from 2004 to 2010. We introduce the concept of “no impact efficiency” as a revenue-neutral efficiency effect of investment under incentive regulation which makes a firm “investment efficient” in cost benchmarking practice. Also, we estimate the observed efficiency effect of investments in order to compare with no impact efficiency and discuss the implication of cost benchmarking for investment behaviour of network companies.

Electricity markets in MENA: adapting for the transition era

Resource-rich economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are pursuing two parallel strategies with regard to their electricity sectors: (i) increasing the role of renewables and integrating them into their power generation mix to mitigate the impact of rising domestic oil and gas demand on their economies and to boost their hydrocarbon export capacities; and (ii) conducting power sector reforms to attract investment in generation capacity and networks, remove subsidies, and improve operational efficiency. These goals imply that the design of power sector reforms (including regulations governing wholesale and retail markets and networks) needs to be carried out with a view to the possibility of a rising share of non-dispatchable resources. The lack of an integrated approach to simultaneously address these two strategies is likely to lead to several misalignments between renewables and the various components of future electricity markets, when the share of intermittent resources increases in the generation mix. The key challenge is that the ‘ultimate model’ that will reconcile these two goals (liberalization and integrating renewables) is as yet unknown, and is still evolving due to uncertainties around the development of technologies, institutions, and consumer preferences. We argue in this paper that resource-rich MENA countries can, however, move towards adopting a transition model of electricity markets, the individual elements of which can eventually be adapted to suit either centralized or decentralized future electricity sector outcomes. We outline the key components of this model for the wholesale market, retail market, and network regulation, considering the objectives of governments and the specific contexts of the region.​

The rise of renewables and energy transition: what adaptation strategy for oil companies and oil-exporting-countries?

The energy landscape is changing rapidly with far-reaching implications for the global energy industry and actors, including oil companies and oil-exporting countries. These rapid changes introduce multidimensional uncertainty, the most important of which is the speed of the transition. While the transformation of the energy system is rapid in certain regions of the world, such as Europe, the speed of the global energy transition remains highly uncertain. It is also difficult to define the end game (which technology will win and what the final energy mix will be), as the outcome of transition is likely to vary across regions. In this context, oil companies are facing a strategic dilemma: attempt the risky transition to low-carbon technologies by moving beyond their core business or just focus on maximising their return from their hydrocarbon assets. We argue that, due to the high uncertainty, oil companies need to develop strategies that are likely to be successful under a wide set of possible future market conditions. Furthermore, the designed strategies need to be flexible and evolve quickly in response to anticipated changes in the market. For oil-exporting countries, there is no trade-off involved in renewable deployment as such investments can liberate oil and gas for export markets, improving the economics of domestic renewables projects. In the long run, however, the main challenge for many oil countries is economic and income diversification as this represents the ultimate safeguard against the energy transition. Whether or not these countries succeed in their goal of achieving a diversified economy and revenue base has implications for investment in the oil sector and oil prices and consequently for the speed of the global energy transition.