Raija Koivisto

Management of Foresight Portfolio: Analysis of Modular Foresight Projects at Contract Research Organisation

While the expansion of foresight scope towards systemic processes and societal considerations has provided significant opportunities for learning and synchronised action between different business units and/or policy fields, it may also have caused digression and ambiguity in the practice and theory of the management of foresight processes. This is true, in particular, in contract research organisations that have faced major challenges to reorganise their foresight activities as part of the changes in their innovation practices. The paper examines the exercises and consequent responses to this shift at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. The paper develops and applies a coherent classification framework for foresight exercises. The framework provides practical support for the design and management of foresight projects, as well as supports the overall management of the portfolio of different kinds of foresight activities. The findings also point out the need for the modular process design that helps adjusting foresight exercises in different contexts.

Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces: constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

This article suggests that, in the current interlinked innovation meta-system, research and technology organisations (RTOs) would benefit from developing two systemic capacities: partial structural openness enabling flexibility in organisation and an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency, that is, a proactive participatory approach that leads to action. In this article, we explore the questions of systemic transformations and the building of an anticipatory culture in the context of VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. First, we discuss the strategic development paths, anticipatory culture and systemic transformation capacities in the context of RTOs. Second, we show how process-based roadmapping can be applied in building the systemic transformation capacities and anticipatory culture. Third, we illustrate these notions by analysing four roadmapping projects as case studies.

FIRE — a database on chemical warehouse fires

Abstract In connection with an EC-funded research project concerning toxic effluents from chemical warehouse fires, a database containing detailed information on selected fire cases has been developed. This paper describes the database and gives examples of its application for identification of fire types, substances involved and fire products/smoke characteristics.

Accidental release: Fuzzy selection of adequate formal model

Abstract Risk assessment of a chemical process plant requires the application of a variety of consequence models in order to estimate the potential physical effects of accidental releases. The types of models required vary depending upon the substance under consideration and the circumstances of a release. The objective of this study was the development and application of a system based upon ‘fuzzy logic’, for the selection of a computer model to be used in consequence analysis in specific situations where only certain types of consequence models can be used. The collection of data for modelling purposes from different kinds of computer model and application of fuzzy methods were also important aims of the study.

On Foresight Design and Management: A Classification Framework for Foresight Exercises

The gradual paradigm shift in innovation research and policy from linear to systemic innovation models has also challenged also the conventional technocratic technology-driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory and systemic foresight approaches (Smits and Kuhlmann 2004). In the 1980s, publicly funded foresight activities were commonly seen as an instrument for assisting in the development of priorities for research and development (R&D) resource allocation (Irvine and Martin 1984). Later on, stakeholder participation and networking have been regarded as increasingly important elements of foresight activities for ‘wiring up’ the multilayered innovation systems both in the public (Martin and Johnston 1999) and private sectors (e.g. Salmenkaita and Salo 2004). Reports from recent foresight projects have, in turn, emphasized the importance of common vision building as a step towards the synchronization of the innovation system (Cuhls 2003). In these developments, the locus of foresight activities has tended to shift from positivist and rationalist technology-focused approaches to the recognition of broader concerns that encompass the entire innovation system, including its environmental, social and economic perspectives. The High Level Expert Group appointed by the European Commission crystallized these trends by defining foresight as follows (European Commission 2002): ‘A systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilizing joint action’.

UML modelling concepts of HAZOP to enhance the ability to identify emerging risks

Unified Modelling Language (UML) has a graphical notation for 13 different types of diagrams and can be used as a general modelling tool. Well-known examples of diagram types are class diagrams for modelling classes that can be instanced into objects, state machine diagrams for modelling states in systems and activity diagrams for modelling process flows. A literature survey shows that UML has been used to model concepts and methodologies of risk assessment and risk management. One example is the Coras Framework. The international standard CEI IEC 61882 Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies describes concepts for investigating and detecting possible hazards in systems. In CEI IEC 6882, guide words like ‘More’ and ‘Less’ are applied to system parameters to invoke deviations in the system and assess possible hazards due to the deviation from the design intent. In this paper, we have used UML to model concepts of CEI IEC 61882 Hazards and operability studies. Diagrams of UML were used to show dependencies and relations between parts of the target system and concepts of CEI IEC 61882. Extensions of UML are suggested to better capture and display the concepts of CEI IEC 61882, the results of a HAZOP study and emerging risk. These extensions are referred to as UML for emerging risks (UML-ER).