Raimundas Lunevicius

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Summary Background In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Methods We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. Findings Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0–5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9–76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9–81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3–43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9–27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1–2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7–41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1–12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4–12·0]). Interpretation Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Changes in health in England with analysis by English region and areas of deprivation: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Summary Background In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Methods We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. Findings Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0–5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9–76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9–81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3–43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9–27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1–2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7–41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1–12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4–12·0]). Interpretation Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Importance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. Objective To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes. Design, Settings, and Participants Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. Main Outcomes and Measures Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. Results There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and −8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. Conclusions and Relevance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts.

Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Objectives We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to report the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). Methods The burden of musculoskeletal disorders was calculated for the EMRs 22 countries between 1990 and 2013. A systematic analysis was performed on mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, death, years of live lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results For musculoskeletal disorders, the crude DALYs rate per 100 000 increased from 1297.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 924.3–1703.4) in 1990 to 1606.0 (95% UI 1141.2–2130.4) in 2013. During 1990–2013, the total DALYs of musculoskeletal disorders increased by 105.2% in the EMR compared with a 58.0% increase in the rest of the world. The burden of musculoskeletal disorders as a proportion of total DALYs increased from 2.4% (95% UI 1.7–3.0) in 1990 to 4.7% (95% UI 3.6–5.8) in 2013. The range of point prevalence (per 1000) among the EMR countries was 28.2–136.0 for low back pain, 27.3–49.7 for neck pain, 9.7–37.3 for osteoarthritis (OA), 0.6–2.2 for rheumatoid arthritis and 0.1–0.8 for gout. Low back pain and neck pain had the highest burden in EMR countries. Conclusions This study shows a high burden of musculoskeletal disorders, with a faster increase in EMR compared with the rest of the world. The reasons for this faster increase need to be explored. Our findings call for incorporating prevention and control programmes that should include improving health data, addressing risk factors, providing evidence-based care and community programmes to increase awareness.

Subtotal colectomy for severe protein-losing enteropathy associated with Cronkhite–Canada syndrome: a case report

A 42-year-old Lithuanian male had up to 15 watery stools a day and lost 28 kg in 3 months. He had onychodystrophy, alopecia, hyperpigmentation of the skin of the forehead and a pale tongue. Endoscopy revealed multiple gastric polyps, a ‘carpeted’ duodenum, diffuse colorectal polyposis with fewer lesions in the rectum, and several thousand colonic polyps up to 3 cm in size. A severe protein-losing enteropathy (PLE) associated with Cronkhite–Canada syndrome (CCS) was confirmed as his blood serum total protein fell to 24.6 g/l and the albumin to 7.0 g/l. Treatment with steroids and ranitidine was initiated resulting in a relative remission at a dose of 40 mg prednisolone. This lasted for 9 months, but as the protein loss continued, with critically low serum albumin levels, a laparoscopic handassisted subtotal colectomy with ileorectal anastomosis was performed. Histological investigation of the resected specimen showed multiple juvenile polyps in the distal ileum and colon. Tubular adenomas in the colon were also present (Fig. 1). This was followed by reduction from 15 to seven stools per 24 h. The protein and albumin levels returned to normal within 2 weeks. The patient is well 6 months after surgery. Discussion

Incidence and mortality from adverse effects of medical treatment in the UK, 1990–2013: levels, trends, patterns and comparisons

Abstract Objective To present an update on incidence and mortality from adverse effects (AEs) of medical treatment in the UK, its four countries and nine English regions between 1990 and 2013. Design Descriptive epidemiological study on AEs of medical treatment. AEs are shown as a single cause-of-injury category from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. Data sources The GBD 2013 interactive data visualisation tools ‘Epi Visualisation’ and ‘GBD Compare’. Outcome measures The means of incidence and mortality rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The estimates are age-standardised. Results Incidence rate was 175 and 176 cases per 100 000 men, 173 and 174 cases per 100 000 women in 1990 and 2013, in the UK (UI 170–180). The mortality from AEs declined from 1.33 deaths (UI 0.99–1.5) to 0.92 deaths (UI 0.75–1.2) per 100 000 individuals in the UK between 1990 and 2013 (30.8% change). Although mortality trends were descending in every region of the UK, they varied by geography and gender. Mortality rates in Scotland, North East England and West Midlands were highest. Mortality rates in South England and Northern Ireland were lowest. In 2013, age-specific mortality rates were higher in males in all 20 age groups compared with females. Conclusions Despite gains in reducing mortality from AEs of medical treatment in the UK between 1990 and 2013, the incidence of AEs remained the same. The results of this analysis suggest revising healthcare policies and programmes aimed to reduce incidence of AEs in the UK.

An analogy between socioeconomic deprivation level and loss of health from adverse effects of medical treatment in England

Background The purpose of this study was to show whether and how levels, trends and patterns obtained from estimates of premature deaths from adverse effects (AEs) of medical treatment depended on the deprivation level in England over the 24-year period, 1990–2013. We provide a report to inform decision-making strategies to reduce the burden of disease arising from AEs of medical treatment in the most deprived areas of the country. Methods Comparative analysis was driven by a single cause-of-injury category—AEs of medical treatment—from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study. We report the mean values with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for five socioeconomic deprivation areas of England. Results In the most deprived areas of England, the death rate declined from 2.27 (95% UI 1.65 to 2.57) to 1.54 (1.28 to 2.08) deaths (32.16% change). The death rate in the least deprived areas was 1.22 (0.88 to 1.38) in 1990; it was 1.17 (0.97 to 1.59) in 2013 (4.1% change). Regarding disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates, the same trend is observed. Although the gap between the most deprived and least deprived populations of England narrowed with regards to number of deaths, and rates of deaths and DALYs from AEs of medical treatment, inequalities between marginal levels of deprivation remain. Conclusions The study suggests that a relationship between deprivation level and health loss from the AEs of medical treatment across England is possible. This could then be used when devising and prioritising health policies and strategies.

Asymptomatic primary tumour in incurable metastatic colorectal cancer: is there a role for surgical resection prior to systematic therapy or not?

Introduction The role of the resection of asymptomatic primary colorectal cancer in patients with incurable disease is questionable. Aim To evaluate the impact of the resection of asymptomatic primary tumour on overall survival in patients with unresectable distant metastases. Material and methods Patients treated in the National Cancer Institute, Lithuania, in the period 2008–2012, were selected retrospectively. The main inclusion criteria were: metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), endoscopically and histologically confirmed adenocarcinoma, without any symptoms for urgent operation, and at least one cycle of palliative chemotherapy administered. Information on patients’ age, gender, tumour histology, localization of the tumour, regional lymph node involvement, number of metastatic sites, surgery and systemic treatment was collected prospectively. Eligible patients for the study were divided into two groups according to the initial treatment – surgery (patients who underwent primary tumour resection) and chemotherapy (patients who received chemotherapy without surgery). The impact of initial treatment strategy, tumour size and site, regional lymph nodes, grade of differentiation of adenocarcinoma and application of biotherapy on overall cumulative survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. To compare survival between groups the log-rank test was used. Cox regression analysis was employed to assess the effects of variables on patient survival. Results The study group consisted of 183 patients: 103 men and 80 women. The median age was 66 years (range: 37–91). There were no notable imbalances with regard to age, gender, number of metastatic sites, metastases (such as pulmonary, peritoneal, liver, metastases into non-regional lymph nodes and other metastases), the number of received cycles of chemotherapy, first line chemotherapy type or biological therapy. Only 27 (14.8%) patients received biological therapy and the majority of them (n = 25, 92.6%) were treated with bevacizumab. For surgically treated patients 1-year survival was 71.2% (95% CI: 62.1–78.5) and 5-year survival was 4.0% (95% CI: 1.0–10.5). In the chemotherapy group, survival rates were lower – 43.9% (95% CI: 31.4–55.7) and 1.7% (95% CI: 0.1–8.1), respectively. Better survival rates were in the palliative surgery group. Multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model revealed that the initial palliative surgery and the application of biological therapy were statistically significant independent prognostic factors for survival. Conclusions Our findings suggest that palliative resectional surgery for the primary tumour in patients with incurable mCRC improves survival. Of course, one can argue that patients in the surgery group were “less problematic”. Prospective randomized trials are needed to delineate precisely the role of palliative surgery of the primary tumour in these patients.

Subtotal gastrectomy with conventional D2 lymphadenectomy for carcinoma of the distal gastric portion: A retrospective cohort study on clinical outcomes

Background The study was aimed to delineate the postoperative morbidity, mortality and long-term follow-up results after R0 subtotal gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy for invasive non-disseminated adenocarcinoma of the distal gastric portion. Methods Between January 2005 and December 2007, 228 patients with median age at hospitalisation 66.6 ± 11.4 years underwent the above mentioned surgery for histologically proven distal gastric adenocarcinoma. Results Postoperative morbidity was documented in 92 (40.4%) of patients within 30 days. An anastomotic leakage was diagnosed in two (0.9%), peritonitis in two (0.9%), anastomositis in five (2.2%), and prolonged ileus in six (2.6%) patients. Nine patients died (3.9%). The overall 1-year survival rate was 83.8%, and the 5-year survival rate was 54.4%. Gender, age, TNM stage, pN, and N ratio were independent factors predicting a long-term prognosis for patients. Conclusions A R0 type distal subtotal gastrectomy with standard D2 lymphadenectomy for a histologically proven invasive adenocarcinoma of the distal gastric portion without distant metastasis offers acceptable postoperative morbidity and mortality, and considerably high overall cumulative 5-year survival rate. The probability of cumulative survival decreases five times when the ratio between metastatic and examined lymph nodes is > 0.25.