Raimundo Soto

Structural Breaks and Long-Run Trends in Commodity Prices

The oil shocks of the 1970s, which quadrupled the price of petroleum, marked the end of an abnormal period of price stability and renewed interest in predicting the evolution of commodity prices. But most subsequent studies have focused on the short-run effects of price fluctuations, mainly because they greatly affect the foreign trade of developing countries. Sophisticated compensation mechanisms, such as commodity funds, have been introduced to counterbalance the transitory effects of price shocks. But the long-term evolution of prices also affects policy design and development strategies and may have a more important role in fostering long-run growth. The evidence presented by Prebisch (1950) and Singer (1950) of a secular negative trend in the price of commodities in 1870-1945 implies an increasingly weak position for developing countries relative to industrial economies. This hypothesis by Prebisch and Singer has been strongly debated, both theoretically and empirically, during the past four decades. Using recent advances in econometric theory, the authors analyze the long-run dynamics of the price of the 24 most-traded commodities in 1900-92. The method they use tests for nonstationarity (unit roots) in the series with a technique that allows structural breaks to be endogenously determined. The results show that 15 of the 24 commodity prices present negative trends, six are trendless, and three exhibit positive trends. Thus, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis though not universal, holds for most commodities. This evidence rejects, to some extent, previous evidence by Cuddington (1992) and others. The authors extend the econometric analysis to determine the persistence of shocks to commodity prices. Knowledge of the persistence of shocks is important when designing counterbalancing policies such as commodity funds. The authors use a nonparametric estimator of persistence (the multiple variance ratio) and find that 19 of the 24 commodity prices present persistence levels substantially lower than previous estimates. This evidence suggests that there may be substantial room for stabilization and price support mechanisms for most commodities.

SPATIAL INEQUALITY, MIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHILE

Between 1975 and 2000, annual per-capita GDP in Chile grew at 5%. Yet, regions did not benefit equally: poverty declined significantly in all regions but regional income inequality remained stagnant. We found that convergence in per-capita income and prod

Policy-Driven Productivity in Chile and Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s

Both Chile and Mexico experienced severe economic crises in the early 1980s, but Chile recovered much faster than did Mexico. Using growth accounting and a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model, we conclude that the crucial determinant of this difference between the two countries was the faster productivity growth in Chile, rather than higher investment or employment. Our hypothesis is that this difference in productivity was driven by earlier policy reforms in Chile, the most crucial of which were in banking and bankruptcy procedures. We propose a theoretical framework in which government policy affects both the allocation of resources and the composition of firms.

How distorted is Cuba's trade? Evidence and predictions from a gravity model

Cuban trade has been historically distorted for two reasons: its membership in the socialist trade pact (CMEA) and the US embargo. Using a gravity model, this article explores the degree of distortion of the current Cuban trade structure and predicts its evolution, in the event the economy is liberalized. The econometric approach uses information on trade flows between 101 developing and developed countries in the 1980–91 period. The main results predict that 80 per cent of Cuban exports and imports will switch away from current partners (in particular, Canada and Japan) towards the USA, to reduce transportation and transaction costs. The results appear robust to specification, time period and trade determinants. The degree of distortion of Cuban trade has declined in the 1990–91 period but, unless the US embargo is lifted, it will not converge to what world trade patterns predict.

On the Measurement of Market-Oriented Reforms

This paper presents policy- and outcome-based ways of measuring the progress of market-oriented reforms in both traditional areas of first-generation reform and the areas of institutional reform that have been emphasized lately. These policy areas are the domestic financial system; international financial markets; international trade; the labor market; the tax system; public infrastructure and public firms; the legal and regulatory framework; and governance. For each of them, first, we discuss the general principles underlying market-oriented reform; second, we present various indicators of the policy stance in the area in question; and third, we present various outcome indicators of the policy stance.

Aid, Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Generating sustained growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most pressing challenges in global development. As the region needs foreign assistance to jump start its development, foreign aid becomes crucial. However, aid booms can also lead to exchange rate overvaluation curtailing exports and growth. This paper provides new evidence on the impact of aid and overvaluation on growth and exports using a sample of 83 countries from 1970 to 2004. We find that aid fosters growth (with decreasing returns) but induces overvaluation. Overvaluation reduces growth but the effect is ameliorated by financial development. Finally, we find new evidence on the negative impact of overvaluation on export diversification and sophistication.

Procyclical Productivity in Manufacturing

We study the cyclical behavior of labor productivity in eighty industries of the Chilean manufacturing sector in the 1979-2001 period. We find that labor productivity at the sector level is procyclical but it is a-cyclical when using aggregate data. We pr

AJUSTE ESTACIONAL E INTEGRACION EN VARIABLES MACROECONOMICAS

The importance of separating secular from seasonal movements in macroeconomic data cannot be understated. For policy purposes, filtering the data is of paramount importance both to analyse macroeconomic fluctuations and to model and quantify the responses of the economy to policy shocks. Despite its importance, seasonality is usually considered at best a nuisance that must be removed from the data before its use. Removing seasonal components is, however, not a trivial task. This paper presents evidence that popular methods to remove seasonality are not harmless procedures and that important information is lost in the filtering of the series. Modern techniques suggest, moreover, that these methods alter our understanding of the relationship among macroeconomic variables and in response to policy shocks. In particular, econometric results suggest that most variables present unit roots not only in their long-run component but also at semi-annual and seasonal frequencies. Consequently, the analysis and simulation of policy models undertaken with seasonally adjusted data should be carefully complemented with the analysis of non-filtered data.

FISCAL REGIMES IN AND OUTSIDE THE MENA REGION

The 1990s ushered the world not only into a democracy wave, following the collapse of the former Soviet Union, but also into a wave of Fiscal Rules, where the number of countries adopting this fiscal regime steadily rose from only 10 in 1990 to 97 in 2009. Countries that depend on hydrocarbons, in general, tend to suffer from fiscal policies that are highly susceptible to energy price shocks. This provides incentives for implementing fiscal stabilization instruments in the form of fiscal rules. However, the resource-rich but largely democracy-deficient MENA region has been a fiscal rules-free region. Against this backdrop, this paper asks two fundamental questions: Why have MENA countries chosen not to adopt fiscal rules? And what role, if any, might have resource dependence and political institutions played in this outcome? We find that the lack of democracy and the weak systems of political checks and balances that characterize MENA countries appear to have outweighed the positive impacts of oil resources, such that fiscal instability persists despite ample oil revenues. The nascent Arab democracy spring might tip the scale in favor of adopting fiscal rules by emerging democratic governments in the region. However, stronger systems of political checks and balances are also needed and, unfortunately, are not necessarily a certain outcome of the current political changes. A move toward inflation targeting regimes, as proposed for Tunisia and Egypt, might also provide additional impetus for adopting fiscal rules as the evidence of Chile and other inflation-targeting countries suggests.

Unemployment and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Latin American Economies

Edwards and Savastanos (2000) survey identify two important limitations of the real exchange rate (RER) literature: the lack of explicit derivation of flow and stock equilibrium variables as determinants of the equilibrium RER and the failure to allow for unemployment. This paper develops a general equilibrium model that includes both elements, as well as other traditional determinants of the RER such as productivity, terms of trade and government policies. The model is tested against the experience of ten Latin American economies in the 1970-2004 period. From an econometric point of view the model is consistent with the evidence, providing an estimate of the RER misalignment. When evaluating the contribution of labor market distortions to changes in the equilibrium RER, they appear to be less significant than changes in productivity or government policies.