Rainer Thiele

Are 'new' donors different? Comparing the allocation of bilateral aid between non-DAC and DAC donor countries

Major DAC donors are widely criticized for weak targeting of aid, selfish aid motives and insufficient coordination. The emergence of an increasing number of new donors may further complicate the coordination of international aid efforts. On the other hand, new donors (many of which were aid recipients until recently) may have competitive advantages in allocating aid according to need and merit. Project-level data on aid by new donors, as collected by the PLAID initiative, allow for empirical analyses comparing the allocation behavior of new versus old donors. We employ Probit and Tobit models and test for significant differences in the distribution of aid by new and old donors across recipient countries. We find that new donors (i) focus on closer neighbors, (ii) care less for recipient need, (iii) exhibit a weaker bias towards badly governed countries, (iv) respond to disasters, but with fewer resources than old donors, and (v) do not pursue commercial self interest.

Assessing the Allocation of Aid: Developmental Concerns and the Self-Interest of Donors

In this paper, we perform a Tobit analysis of aid allocation, covering the period 1999-2002 and accounting for both altruistic and selfish donor motives. It turns out that poorer countries get clearly more aid from both bilateral and multilateral donors. Most donors are also found to direct significantly more aid to well-governed recipients if governance is measured by the World Banks Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA). If the CPIA is replaced by the Kaufmann index on institutional conditions in recipient countries, however, the policy orientation of aid becomes extremely weak. In contrast to a recent paper by Dollar and Levin, our estimates do not suggest that multilateral aid is more poverty- and policy-oriented than bilateral aid. Post-conflict resolution emerges as a significant determinant of aid allocation in 2002. The importance of selfish aid motives clearly differs between bilateral and multilateral donors. In particular, the export-related self- interest of donor countries provided a fairly strong incentive to grant bilateral aid, as did colonial ties.

Aid and Sectoral Growth: Evidence from Panel Data

Abstract This article examines empirically the proposition that aid to poor countries is detrimental for external competitiveness, giving rise to Dutch disease type effects. At the aggregate level, aid is found to have a positive effect on growth. A sectoral decomposition shows that the effect is (i) significant and positive in the tradable and the nontradable sectors, and (ii) equally strong in both sectors. The article thus provides no empirical support for the hypothesis that aid reduces external competitiveness in developing countries. A possible reason for this finding is the existence of large idle labour capacity that prevents the real exchange rate from appreciating.

A SOCIAL ACCOUTING MATRIX FOR BOLIVIA FEATURING FORMAL AND INFORMAL ACTIVITIES

This paper describes the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Bolivia for the year 1997. Three distinctive features render the SAM a useful starting point for distributional analyses. First, production in the agricultural and services sect

National and international policies for tropical rain forest conservation—A quantitative analysis for Cameroon

This paper provides a numerical general equilibrium assessment of policies to reduce tropical deforestation in Cameroon. Market failure—mainly in the form of national and international externalities—and policy failures—such as highly distorted product markets—are identified as major sources of overexploitation. The ecological effects of deforestation control are shown to depend crucially upon its impact on land use patterns whereas its efficiency effects hinge on the manner in which a specified set-aside target is achieved. If the international community wants to ensure a higher level of protection of these forests, and to do so within a market-based system, the provision of conditional financial resources is neceassary.

RESOURCE BOOMS, INEQUALITY, AND POVERTY: THE CASE OF GAS IN BOLIVIA

This paper addresses the question of whether the Bolivian gas boom of the 1990s has bypassed large parts of the poor population, thereby leading to increasing inequalities in an already unequal society. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model that is sequentially linked to a microsimulation model, we examine the transmission channels through which the large resource inflows related to the gas boom, both initial foreign investment in the sector and the subsequent export earnings, as well as large public transfer programs affect the distribution of income. Our focus is on labor market impacts, in particular on shifts between formal and informal employment and changes in relative factor prices. Our simulation results suggest that the gas boom induces a combination of unequalizing and equalizing forces, which tend to offset each other. As net distributional change is limited, growth generated by the boom reduces poverty despite increasing informality.

The Impact of Commodity Price Changes on Rural Households: The Case of Coffee in Uganda

Policies and external shocks affecting agriculture, the main source of income for rural households, can be expected to have a significant impact on poverty. The authors study the case of Uganda. Throughout the 1990s, more than 90 percent of its poor lived in rural areas and, during the same period, large international price fluctuations as well as an extensive domestic deregulation affected the coffee sector, its main source of export revenues. Using data from three household surveys covering the 1990s, the authors confirm a strong correlation between changes in coffee prices (in a liberalized market) and poverty reduction. This is highlighted by comparing the performance of different households grouped according to their dependence on coffee farming. Regression analysis (based on pooled data from the three surveys) of consumption expenditure on coffee-related variables, other controls, and time-fixed effects corroborates that the mentioned correlation is not spurious. The authors also find that while both poor and rich farmers enter the coffee sector, the price boom benefits the poorer households relatively more, whereas the liberalization seems to create more opportunities for richer farmers. Finally, notwithstanding the importance of the coffee price boom, the agricultural policy framework and the thorough structural reforms in which the coffee market liberalization was embedded have certainly played a role in triggering overall agricultural growth. These factors appear to matter especially in the second half of the 1990s when prices went down but poverty reduction continued.

Aid Allocation by German NGOs: Does the Degree of Official Financing Matter?

Using a new data set for 41 German non‐governmental organisations (NGOs), we analyse the allocation of NGO aid across recipient countries in a Tobit regression framework. By identifying for each NGO the degree of official financing, we address the largely unresolved issue of whether financial dependence on the government impairs the targeting of NGO aid. It turns out that German NGOs are more active in poorer countries, while they do not complement official aid by working under difficult local conditions. Beyond a certain threshold, rising financial dependence weakens their poverty orientation and provides an incentive to engage in ‘easier’ environments. In addition, we find that the NGOs follow the state as well as NGO peers when allocating aid. This herding behaviour is, however, hardly affected by the degree of official financing.

Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis

Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household-level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy-wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al-Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood-affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people.

Shocks, Policy Reforms and Pro‐Poor Growth in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis

This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivias ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Nino); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks are likely to impair Bolivias medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, the poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households. Copyright