Raja Vinesh Sannassee

Marketing Promotion Financing and Tourism Development: The Case of Mauritius

The benefits of tourism are widely acknowledged in the literature given the prevalence of its potential towards stimulating economic growth through the development of the domestic industry associated to the tourism sector, the stimulation of the provision of basic infrastructure, and the transfer of necessary technology via inward foreign direct investment. However, whilst the literature is fraught with studies on the determinants of tourism development in the literature, tourism promotion efforts, on the other hand, as an ingredient of tourism demand, have been overwhelmingly neglected by academic researchers. Moreover, the very few studies that could be traced focused exclusively on developed-country cases. As such, the present article attempts to supplement the small amount of literature on tourism-promotion impact for small island states through an assessment of the impact of tourism promotion efforts on tourist arrivals for Mauritius using an autoregressive distributed lag model approach. After controlling for the classical determinants of tourism demand, our analysis interestingly reveals that tourism marketing and promotion is a crucial element for attracting tourists to Mauritius, albeit to a lesser extent than some of the classical ingredients of the tourism equation.

Foreign direct investment and welfare nexus in sub Saharan Africa

Governments of developing countries have been targeting poverty alleviation and deprivation as their main goal and thus have been working for pro poor growth. It is observed that African countries need considerable amount of investment in order to help their economies to prosper. African countries can benefit from growth through foreign investment which is seen as an important source of capital flows. However, even if growth is important for an economy, it is not a good indicator of social development. Welfare can be worsen if growth attained by a country is not pro poor and can also result in an increase in inequality gap. In this regards, this study is based on the investigation on FDI and poverty alleviation or welfare maximization in selected Sub Saharan African countries. The present paper takes a different approach in analyzing the impact of FDI on poverty reduction. In the context of selected Sub Saharan African countries and over the period 1990-2010, a dynamic Panel vector error correction model is adopted. In effect the Vector autoregressive model or the vector error correction model is of great importance in showing the dynamic behavior of economic time series and for forecasting. Also, it often provides better forecasts and describes theory-based simultaneous equations models. Thus, given the endogeneity and causality issues, using such a model can prove to be highly beneficial. The main variables used are FDI net inflows and poverty headcount index. Other variables used in this study include the unemployment rate, inflation, openness, government debt and government expenditure, education level and GDP per capita. The results suggest that indeed FDI is an efficient tool in fighting poverty both in the short run and long run with the sample of countries considered. Moreover, the results favor a uni directional relationship between FDI and social welfare (poverty reduction) and a bi directional causality between FDI and economic welfare (Economic growth). According to this study, foreign investment is an important ingredient for both economic and social development for Sub Saharan African countries. Hence, the government should devise appropriate policies to attract such capital flows. These can be in terms of an improvement in institutional capacity and easier administrative procedures which would surely favor the entrance of foreign firms in the host countries.

The Influence of Trust on Repeat Tourism: The Mauritian Case Study

The present article attempts to shed light on the importance of trust as a major contributor to repeat tourism, more specifically on the promulgation of trust as a composite of political and socioeconomic elements and the perceived sense of security prevalent in the country under consideration. Using a probit model, the results show that trust is a statistically significant predictor of the probability of repeat and recommended tourism; such a result confirms the theoretical links between trust and tourism. Furthermore, other explanatory variables—which include the level of development of the destination, hotel infrastructure, tourism attractions, promotion of the destinations, and availability of infrastructure—were also found to be significantly correlated with the expected signs in relation to the independent variable. However, cost of living and exchange rate were found not to be significant predictors of repeat or recommended tourism.

The impact of relative prices on tourism demand for Mauritius: An empirical analysis

The present study assesses the impact of relative prices on tourism flows in Mauritius. To account for dynamism in tourism flows modelling, a dynamic time series analysis – namely the vector autoregressive model – is employed. The results show that relative price measures have a long-run impact on international tourism flows, indicating that tourists are sensitive to price levels. The relative average cost in the different competing destinations is also reported to be positive and significant, indicating that the impact of relative price changes in foreign destinations competing with Mauritius tourism matters; thus indicating a certain degree of substitutability between Mauritian and its regional competitors’ tourism. Tourism infrastructure, income in country of origin and the islands level of development are confirmed to be key factors in the tourist selection decision. Finally, overall, short-run estimates confirm the above results.

An Econometric Analysis Regarding the Path of Non Performing Loans-A Panel Data Analysis from Mauritian Banks and Implications for the Banking Industry

The present study pertains to unravelling the internal (bank specific) and external (macroeconomic) determinants of nonperforming loans in Mauritius using annual report data from a panel of 10 existing banks and macroeconomic data for the period 2000 to 2012. The model used in the present instance comprises of a vector of bank specific and macro economic variables which include the inflation rate, lending interest rates, growth of the construction sector and tourism sector as well as global variables such as the Euro zone’s GDP growth. The model is tested both in a static and dynamic framework. Four estimation techniques are considered, viz Fixed Effects, differenced GMM, System GMM and Random coefficient estimation. The results indicate that, notwithstanding there are many significant factors influencing NPL, the most critical elements nevertheless remain declines in the construction sector and the rise in cross border loans. Interestingly, the study provides important policy insights which centres on the improvement of credit concentration guidelines as well as the modification of the MCIB reporting.

The long-run performance of IPOs: the case of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius

This study examines the long-run performance of initial public offerings on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). The results show that the 3-year equally weighted cumulative adjusted returns average −16.5%. The magnitude of this underperformance is consistent with most reported studies in different developed and emerging markets. Based on multivariate regression models, firms with small issues and higher ex ante financial strength seem on average to experience greater long-run underperformance, supporting the divergence of opinion and overreaction hypotheses. On the other hand, Mauritian firms do not on average time their offerings to lower cost of capital and as such, there seems to be limited support for the windows of opportunity hypothesis.

Demographic Transition and Savings Behavior in Mauritius

The implications of aging population on the savings in Mauritius are studied by using two alternative complementary methodologies. First, the Mauritian specific econometric evidence on the aging-saving transmission channel is analyzed by using time-series data from 1975 to 2011 and applying the VAR approach. Second, a microeconomic analysis is undertaken to exploit the rich household data on exogenous age-specific private saving rates in Mauritius. Our findings reveal that GDP growth and lagged savings impact positively domestic savings. The savings rate is negatively correlated with domestic credit to public sector (measure of financial development) but positively linked with the real rate of interest. Lastly, at the microlevel, while male-headed households tend to save less than female-headed households, income and employment status are also important determinants of savings. Further, marital status and family size play a determining role in influencing savings behavior of the typical Mauritian household.

Analysing the impact of tourism foreign direct investment on economic growth: Evidence from a small island developing state

The present study attempts to address the important question of whether foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into the tourism sector has served to enhance economic growth in Mauritius for the period 1984–2014. Using a dynamic vector error correction model, and catering for dynamism, the results show that tourism FDI has indeed contributed to fostering economic growth; albeit the magnitude of the coefficient being relatively smaller than FDI in the non-tourism sector. A plausible explanation for such a finding may reside in the fact that the bulk of FDI flows in the non-tourism sectors while domestic investment predominates in the tourism sector in Mauritius. The findings also demonstrate a positive relationship between tourism development and economic growth, thus supporting the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

Air Access Liberalisation, Marketing Promotion And Tourism Trade

The objective of the present study is two-fold. Firstly, to assess the impact of air access liberalization on tourism demand for Mauritius and secondly to analyse the dual impact of the interplay between air access liberalization and marketing promotion efforts on tourism demand. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, the results suggest that air access liberalisation is an important ingredient, albeit to a lesser extent as compared to other classical explanatory variables, of tourism demand. The results also highlight the fact that Mauritius is perceived as a luxurious destination and tourists are also deemed to be price sensitive. Moreover our dynamic approach interestingly confirms the presence of repeat tourism in the island. Finally, the findings also uncover the positive impact of the interplay between air access liberalization and marketing promotion efforts on fostering tourism demand.

Exchange rate volatility and manufacturing trade: Evidence from Africa

ABSTRACT:Subsequent to the floating of the US dollar in 1973, liberalization of capital flows and the associated exponential growth of cross-border financial transactions during the last three decades, important volatility and uncertainty has been seen in exchange rates (Arize, 1998). Academicians, policy makers, researchers and economists have always raised eyebrows with regards to the potential impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. Taking into account the foregoing, recent volatility in world known currencies and given that African countries rely heavily on manufacturing trade for their survival, this paper analyses the impact of exchange rate volatility on manufacturing trade in a sample of 18 African countries spanning the period 1995-2012 using an import-export model and dynamic panel data econometrics. As measures of exchange rate volatility, the Z score and EGARCH as employed. In a dynamic setting, contrary to what static results suggest, random coefficient estimates reveal that both REER and its volatility are statistically significant in explaining real manufacturing imports and exports using both measures of exchange rate volatility. However, foreign income, contrary to the law of income elasticity of demand is inelastic in explaining the exports. When VaR estimation is employed, however, only when EGARCH is employed, does exchange rate volatility adversely affect real manufacturing imports and exports. The negative impact of exchange rate volatility on manufacturing exports means that the governments of the African states should look for policies to stabilize their external trade position. As the results, the African economies should seek the help of developed and emerging nations in developing their financial markets, more explicitly well-developed hedging instruments and markets. In the same vein, governments should come up with the necessary policies to promote the introduction of institutions to provide such services. The results of the study also have important insights to offer in terms of government macroeconomic policies to stabilise external trade in the African countries such as diversification of markets and payment alternatives and on a regional scene to start thinking about a regional currency pegged to a major world currency.