Rakesh Shukla

The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study Preliminary First-Ever and Total Incidence Rates of Stroke Among Blacks

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study was designed to be the first large, population-based metropolitan study of temporal trends in stroke incidence rates and outcome within a biracial population. METHODS We are identifying all hospitalized and autopsied cases of stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) among the 1.3 million inhabitants of a five-county region of Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky for the period 7/1/93-6/30/94. We have already prospectively monitored for out-of-hospital stroke and TIAs for this same time period at 128 screening sites, including a random sample of all primary care physicians and nursing homes in the region. We have already identified all hospitalized and autopsied cases of stroke and TIA among blacks for 1/1/93-6/30/93 and report preliminary incidence rates for this 6-month period. RESULTS The overall incidence rate for all first-ever hospitalized or autopsied stroke (excluding TIAs) among blacks in the Greater Cincinnati region was 288 per 100000 (95% CI, 250 to 325, age- and sex-adjusted to 1990 US population). The overall incidence rate for first-ever and recurrent stroke (excluding TIAs) was 411 per 100000 (95% CI, 366 to 456). By comparison, the overall incidence rate of first-ever stroke among whites in Rochester, Minn, during the period 1985-1989 was 179 per 100000 (95% CI, 164 to 194, age- and-sex adjusted to 1990 US population). The incidence rates among blacks in Greater Cincinnati were substantially greater than the rates among whites in Rochester, Minn, for all age categories except ages 75 and older, for which the rates were similar. CONCLUSIONS We conservatively estimate that 731100 first-ever or recurrent strokes occurred in the United States during 1996. Studies of first-ever as well as total stroke among biracial and representative populations are critical for understanding temporal trends in the incidence rate and the burden of stroke in the US population.

Incidence and Short-Term Prognosis of Transient Ischemic Attack in a Population-Based Study

Background and Purpose— Transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) have been shown to be a strong predictor of subsequent stroke and death. We present the incidence and short-term prognosis of TIA within a large population with a significant proportion of minorities with out-of-hospital TIA. Methods— TIA cases were identified between July 1, 1993 and June 30, 1994 from the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky population of 1.3 million inhabitants by previously published surveillance methods, including inpatient and out-of-hospital events. Incidence rates were adjusted to the 1990 population, and life-table analyses were used for prognosis. Results— The overall race, age, and gender-adjusted incidence rate for TIA within our population was 83 per 100 000, with age, race, and gender adjusted to the 1990 US population. Blacks and men had significantly higher rates of TIA than whites and women. Risk of stroke after TIA was 14.6% at 3 months, and risk of TIA/stroke/death was 25.2%. Age, race, and sex were not associated with recurrent TIA or subsequent stroke in our population, but age was associated with mortality. Conclusions— Using our incidence rates for TIA in blacks and whites, we conservatively estimate that ≈240 000 TIAs occurred in 2002 in the United States. Our incidence rate of TIA is slightly higher than previously reported, which may be related to the inclusion of blacks and out-of-hospital events. There are racial and gender-related differences in the incidence of TIA. We found a striking risk of adverse events after TIA; however, there were no racial or gender differences predicting these events. Further study is warranted in interventions to prevent these adverse events after TIA.

Stroke in a Biracial Population The Excess Burden of Stroke Among Blacks

Background and Purpose— Excess mortality resulting from stroke is an important reason why blacks have higher age-adjusted mortality rates than whites. This observation has 2 possible explanations: Strokes occur more commonly among blacks or blacks have higher mortality rates after stroke. Our population-based epidemiological study is set in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region of 1.31 million people, which is representative of the US white and black populations with regard to many demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Methods— Hospitalized cases were ascertained by International Classification of Diseases (ninth revision) discharge codes, prospective screening of emergency department admission logs, and review of coroner’s cases. A sampling scheme was used to ascertain cases in the out-of-hospital setting. All potential cases underwent detailed chart abstraction by study nurses, followed by physician review. Race-specific incidence and case fatality rates were calculated. Results— We identified 3136 strokes during the study period (January 1, 1993, to June 30, 1994). Stroke incidence rates were higher for blacks at every age, with the greatest risk (2- to 5-fold) seen in young and middle-aged blacks (<65 years of age). Case fatality rates did not differ significantly in blacks compared with whites. Applying the resulting age- and race-specific rates to the US population in 2002, we estimate that 705 000 to 740 000 strokes have occurred in the United States, with a minimum of 616 000 cerebral infarctions, 67 000 intracerebral hemorrhages, and 22 000 subarachnoid hemorrhages. Conclusions— Excess stroke-related mortality in blacks is due to higher stroke incidence rates, particularly in the young and middle-aged. This excess burden of stroke incidence among blacks represents one of the most serious public health problems facing the United States.

Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Intracerebral Hemorrhage Preliminary Results of a Population-Based Study

Background and Purpose— Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) has a 30-day mortality rate of 40% to 50% and lacks a proven treatment. We report a preplanned, midpoint analysis of the first population-based, case-control study that examines both genetic and environmental risk factors of ICH. Methods— We prospectively identified cases of hemorrhagic stroke at all 16 hospitals in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region. All cases underwent medical record and neuroimaging review. Cases enrolled in the direct interview and genetic sampling arm of the study were matched to population-based control subjects by age, race, and sex. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify significant independent risk factors. Results— We enrolled 188 cases of ICH (67 lobar, 121 nonlobar) and 366 control subjects in the direct interview arm of the study. Significant independent risk factors for lobar ICH included the presence of an apolipoprotein E2 or E4 allele, frequent alcohol use, prior stroke, and first-degree relative with ICH. Significant independent risk factors for nonlobar ICH were hypertension, prior stroke, and first-degree relative with ICH. An increasing level of education was associated with a decreased risk of nonlobar ICH. The attributable risk of apolipoprotein E2 or E4 for lobar ICH was 29%, and the attributable risk of hypertension for nonlobar ICH was 54%. Conclusions— There is significant epidemiological evidence that the pathophysiology of ICH varies by location. We estimate that a third of all cases of lobar ICH are attributable to possession of an apolipoprotein E4 or E2 allele and that half of all cases of nonlobar ICH are attributable to hypertension.

Eligibility for Recombinant Tissue Plasminogen Activator in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Population-Based Study

Background and Purpose— Acute ischemic stroke patients are infrequently treated with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA). We present unique population-based data regarding the eligibility of ischemic stroke patients for rtPA treatment. Methods— All ischemic strokes presenting to an emergency department (ED) within a biracial population of 1.3 million were identified. The patient was considered eligible for rtPA on the basis of exclusion criteria from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke rtPA trial. Results— Of 2308 ischemic strokes, 1849 presented to an ED. Only 22% of all ischemic strokes in the population arrived in the ED in <3 hours from symptom onset; of these, 209 (51%) were ineligible for rtPA on the basis of mild stroke severity, medical and surgical history, or blood tests. Conclusions— In our population in 1993 to 1994, 8% of all ischemic stroke patients presented to an ED within 3 hours and met other eligibility criteria for rtPA. Even if time were not an exclusion for rtPA, only 29% of all ischemic strokes in our population would have otherwise been eligible for rtPA.

Subarachnoid Hemorrhage A Preventable Disease With a Heritable Component

Background and Purpose— Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) caused by ruptured intracranial aneurysm affects approximately 16 000 Americans annually, and almost 40% of affected patients die within 30 days despite the best current therapy. Prevention of SAH is therefore of paramount importance. We present a preliminary analysis of risk factors for SAH from our population-based, case-control study. Methods— Cases were prospectively collected and matched 2:1 by age, race, and gender to controls using random digit dialing. Personal risk factor history, family history, neuroimaging data, and genetic samples were obtained. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed and population-attributable risks estimated. Multivariable analysis was performed using conditional logistic regression. Results— Between June 1997 and February 2000, 107 cases and 197 controls were enrolled. In bivariate analyses, a large proportion of population-attributable risk for SAH could be explained by modifiable risk factors: smoking, hypertension, and heavy alcohol use. In multivariable analysis, current cigarette smoking, history of hypertension, frequent alcohol use, lower body mass index, and a family history of a relative with SAH or intracranial aneurysm were found to be significant, independent risk factors for SAH. Conclusion— Our data confirm previous reports that SAH clusters within some families independent of environmental risk factors, suggesting that SAH has a significant genetic component. Yet, even among families at increased risk of SAH, smoking cessation, treatment of hypertension, and reduced alcohol intake may substantially decrease SAH risk. The independent associations with heavy alcohol use and low body mass index with SAH may be confounded by smoking and require further study.

Ischemic Stroke Subtypes. A Population-Based Study of Incidence Rates Among Blacks and Whites

Background and Purpose— Blacks have an excess burden of stroke compared with whites; however, data comparing ischemic stroke subtypes among the 2 groups are limited and typically involve relative frequencies. The objective of this study is to compare the incidence rates of ischemic stroke subtypes between blacks and whites within a large, representative, biracial population. Methods— The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study is designed to measure incidence rates and trends of all strokes within a well-defined, large, biracial population. Hospitalized cases were ascertained by International Classification of Disease (9th revision; ICD-9) discharge codes. Out-of-hospital events were ascertained by prospective screening of emergency department admission logs, review of coroners’ cases, and monitoring all public health and hospital-based primary care clinics. A sampling scheme was used to ascertain events from nursing homes and all other primary care physician offices. All potential cases underwent detailed chart abstraction and confirmed by physician review. Based on all available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, ischemic stroke cases were subtyped into the following categories: cardioembolic, large-vessel, small-vessel, other, and stroke of undetermined cause. Race-specific incidence rates were calculated and compared after adjusting for age and gender, and standardizing to the 1990 US population. Results— Between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, 1956 first-ever ischemic strokes occurred among blacks and whites in the study population. Small-vessel strokes and strokes of undetermined cause were nearly twice as common among blacks. Large-vessel strokes were 40% more common among blacks than whites, and there was a trend toward cardioembolic strokes being more common among blacks. Conclusions— The excess burden of ischemic strokes among blacks compared with whites is not uniformly spread across the different subtypes. Large-vessel strokes are more common and cardioembolic stroke are as common among blacks, traditionally thought to be more common among whites.

The Unchanging Incidence and Case-Fatality of Stroke in the 1990s A Population-Based Study

Background and Purpose— Many advances were made in stroke prevention strategies during the 1990s, and yet temporal trends in stroke incidence and case-fatality have not been reported in the United States. Blacks have a 2-fold higher risk of stroke; however, there are no data over time showing if any progress has been made in reducing racial disparity in stroke incidence. The objective of this study was to examine temporal trends in stroke incidence and case-fatality within a large, biracial population during the 1990s. Methods— Within a biracial population of 1.3 million, all strokes were ascertained at all local hospitals using International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision codes during July 1993 to June 1994 and again in 1999. A sampling scheme was used to ascertain cases in the out-of-hospital setting. Race-specific incidence and case-fatality rates were calculated and standardized to the 2000 US Census population. A population-based telephone survey regarding stroke risk factor prevalence and medication use was performed in 1995 and 2000. Results— There were 1954 first-ever strokes in 1993–1994 and 2063 first-ever strokes in 1999. The annual incidence of first-ever hospitalized stroke did not significantly change between study periods: 158 per 100 000 in both 1993–1994 and 1999 (P=0.97). Blacks continue to have higher stroke incidence than whites, especially in the young; however, case-fatality rates continue to be similar between races and are not changing over time. Medication use for treatment of stroke risk factors significantly increased in the general population between study periods. Conclusions— Despite advances in stroke prevention treatments during the 1990s, the incidence of hospitalized stroke did not decrease within our population. Case-fatality also did not change between study periods. Excess stroke mortality rates seen in blacks nationally are likely the result of excess stroke incidence and not case-fatality, and the racial disparity in stroke incidence did not change over time.

Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Preliminary Results of a Population-Based Study * Editorial Comment: Preliminary Results of a Population-Based Study

Background and Purpose— Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) has a 30-day mortality rate of 40% to 50% and lacks a proven treatment. We report a preplanned, midpoint analysis of the first population-based, case-control study that examines both genetic and environmental risk factors of ICH. Methods— We prospectively identified cases of hemorrhagic stroke at all 16 hospitals in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region. All cases underwent medical record and neuroimaging review. Cases enrolled in the direct interview and genetic sampling arm of the study were matched to population-based control subjects by age, race, and sex. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify significant independent risk factors. Results— We enrolled 188 cases of ICH (67 lobar, 121 nonlobar) and 366 control subjects in the direct interview arm of the study. Significant independent risk factors for lobar ICH included the presence of an apolipoprotein E2 or E4 allele, frequent alcohol use, prior stroke, and first-degree relative with ICH. Significant independent risk factors for nonlobar ICH were hypertension, prior stroke, and first-degree relative with ICH. An increasing level of education was associated with a decreased risk of nonlobar ICH. The attributable risk of apolipoprotein E2 or E4 for lobar ICH was 29%, and the attributable risk of hypertension for nonlobar ICH was 54%. Conclusions— There is significant epidemiological evidence that the pathophysiology of ICH varies by location. We estimate that a third of all cases of lobar ICH are attributable to possession of an apolipoprotein E4 or E2 allele and that half of all cases of nonlobar ICH are attributable to hypertension.

Incidence Rates of First-Ever Ischemic Stroke Subtypes Among Blacks: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The aim of this study was to determine the incidence rates of ischemic stroke subtypes among blacks. METHODS Hospitalized and autopsied cases of stroke and transient ischemic attack among the 187 000 blacks in the 5-county region of greater Cincinnati/northern Kentucky From January 1, 1993, through June 30, 1993, were identified. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the 1990 US population. Subtype classification was performed after extensive review of all available imaging, laboratory data, clinical information, and past medical history. Case-control comparisons of risk factors were made with age-, race-, and sex-matched control subjects. RESULTS Annual incidence rates per 100 000 for first-ever ischemic stroke subtypes among blacks were as follows: uncertain cause, 103 (95% confidence interval [CI], 80 to 126); cardioembolic, 56 (95% CI, 40 to 73); small-vessel infarct, 52 (95% CI, 36 to 68); large vessel, 17 (95% CI, 8 to 26); and other causes, 17 (95% CI, 9 to 26). Of the patients diagnosed with an infarct of uncertain cause, 31% underwent echocardiography, 45% underwent carotid ultrasound, and 48% had neither. Compared with age-, race-, and sex- (proportionally) matched control subjects from the greater Cincinnati/northern Kentucky region, the attributable risk of hypertension for all causes of first-ever ischemic stroke is 27% (95% CI, 7 to 43); for diabetes, 21% (95% CI, 11 to 29); and for coronary artery disease, 9% (95% CI, 2 to 16). For small-vessel ischemic stroke, the attributable risk of hypertension is 68% (95% CI, 31 to 85; odds ratio [OR], 5.0), and the attributable risk of diabetes is 30% (95% CI, 10 to 45; OR, 4.4). For cardioembolic stroke, the attributable risk of diabetes is 25% (95% CI, 4 to 41; OR, 3.1). CONCLUSIONS Stroke of uncertain cause is the most common subtype of ischemic stroke among blacks. Cardioembolic stroke and small-vessel stroke are the most important, identifiable causes of first-ever ischemic stroke among blacks. The incidence rates of cardioembolic and large-vessel stroke are likely underestimated because noninvasive testing of the carotid arteries and echocardiography were not consistently obtained in stroke patients at the 18 regional hospitals. Most small-vessel strokes in blacks can be attributed to hypertension and diabetes.