Ralph Rogalla

Lifecycle Portfolio Choice with Systematic Longevity Risk and Variable Investment — Linked Deferred Annuities

This paper assesses the impact of variable investment-linked deferred annuities (VILDAs) on lifecycle consumption, saving, and portfolio allocation patterns given stochastic and systematic mortality. Insurers have taken two approaches to manage systematic mortality risks, namely self-insurance and risk transfer to purchasers of the annuity products. We demonstrate that self-insurance leads to high loadings, so that households offered a choice would favor the risk transfer scheme. Reservation loadings on the actuarially fair VILDA price for non-participation are 0.5-8%; if insurers cannot hedge within this range, they will transfer systematic longevity risks to the annuitants. Our findings have implications for new payout products that may be attractive to older households seeking to protect against retirement shortfalls.

Return and risk of German open‐end real estate funds

Open‐end real estate funds (so‐called ‘Offene Immobilienfonds’) play a major role in the German market for securitized real estate investments. Such funds are pools of money from many investors, which are invested in real estate by special investment management companies. This study seeks to identify the risk and return profile of this investment vehicle (before and after income taxes), to compare it with those of other major asset classes, and to provide implications for their appropriate role in a mixed‐asset portfolio. Additionally, an overview of the institutional architecture and role of German open‐end real estate funds is given. Empirical evidence suggests that the financial characteristics of open‐end real estate funds are in many respects similar to those reported for direct real estate investments. Accordingly, German open‐end real estate funds qualify for medium and long‐term investment horizons, rather than for shorter holding periods.

Lifecycle Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Household Optimal Consumption, Portfolio Choice, and Labor Supply

The direct financial impact of the financial crisis has been to deal a heavy blow to investment-based pensions; many workers lost a substantial portion of their retirement saving. The financial sector implosion produced an economic crisis for the rest of the economy via high unemployment and reduced labor earnings, which reduced household contributions to Social Security and some private pensions. Our research asks which types of individuals were most affected by these dual financial and economic shocks, and it also explores how people may react by changing their consumption, saving and investment, work and retirement, and annuitization decisions. We do so with a realistically calibrated lifecycle framework allowing for time-varying investment opportunities and countercyclical risky labor income dynamics. We show that households near retirement will reduce both short- and long-term consumption, boost work effort, and defer retirement. Younger cohorts will initially reduce their work hours, consumption, saving, and equity exposure; later in life, they will work more, retire later, consume less, invest more in stocks, save more, and reduce their demand for private annuities.

The Victory of Hope Over Angst? Funding, Asset Allocation and Risk Taking in German Public Sector Pension Reform

How to deliver adequate pension benefits at reasonable costs is a huge challenge confronting our ageing societies. This book delivers a comprehensive overview of the latest insights into pension finance, pension system design, pension governance and risk based supervision. It combines state-of-the-art analyses with innovative policy proposals to increase the efficiency and resilience of pension systems and to advance these systems’ contribution to global financial stability. Renowned pension experts offer cutting-edge guidance for future decision making and the development of best practices. This exciting exploration of the frontiers in pension finance highlights key aspects of securing long term retirement provisions.

Welfare implications of product choice regulation during the payout phase of funded pensions

In many countries, governmental support for funded old-age programmes comes at the cost of at least partial mandatory annuitisation of accumulated assets in retirement. We survey regulatory frameworks for the payout phase of funded pension systems in seven European countries and the US and study the influence of mandatory annuitisation on the welfare of both rational and behaviourally influenced individuals using a dynamic life-cycle model. We show that mandatory immediate full annuitisation of retirement assets will reduce rational individuals’ certainty equivalent pension wealth by up to 54%. Softening the strict immediate annuitisation requirements along the line of regulatory realities in some of the surveyed countries reduces utility losses considerably. Behaviourally restricted individuals can benefit from full annuitisation at retirement, but generally they will also prefer more flexible regulation.

Life Cycle Impacts of the Financial Crisis on Optimal Consumption—Portfolio Choices and Labor Supply

The direct financial impact of the financial crisis has been to deal a heavy blow to investment-based pensions; many workers lost a substantial portion of their retirement saving. The financial sector implosion produced an economic crisis for the rest of the economy via high unemployment and reduced labor earnings, which reduced household contributions to Social Security and some private pensions. Our research asks which types of individuals were most affected by these dual financial and economic shocks, and it also explores how people may react by changing their consumption, saving and investment, work and retirement, and annuitization decisions. We do so with a realistically calibrated lifecycle framework allowing for time-varying investment opportunities and countercyclical risky labor income dynamics. We show that households near retirement will reduce both shortand long-term consumption, boost work effort, and defer retirement. Younger cohorts will initially reduce their work hours, consumption, saving, and equity exposure; later in life, they will work more, retire later, consume less, invest more in stocks, save more, and reduce their demand for private annuities. Disciplines Economics This working paper is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/prc_papers/176 Lifecycle Impacts of the Financial Crisis on Optimal Consumption-Portfolio Choice, and Labor Supply Jingjing Chai, Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell, and Ralph Rogalla

Reforming the German Civil Servant Pension Plan

We analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for civil servants in Germany, allowing for alternative portfolio mixes using a Monte Carlo framework and a Conditional Value at Risk metric. First, we estimate contributions as a percent of salary that would fully fund future benefit promises for active employees. Second, we identify an investment strategy for plan assets that will minimize worst-case pension costs; this turns out to be 22% in equities, 47% in bonds, and 30% in real estate. Third, we explore the time path of pension fund asset shortfalls and the chances of contribution holidays for current and future generations. We show that moving toward a funded pension system for German civil servants can be beneficial to both taxpayers and civil servants.

WILL THEY TAKE THE MONEY AND WORK? PEOPLE'S WILLINGNESS TO DELAY CLAIMING SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS FOR a LUMP SUM

This article investigates whether exchanging Social Security delayed retirement credits, currently paid as increases in lifelong benefits, for a lump sum would induce later claiming and additional work. We show that people would voluntarily claim about 6 months later if the lump sum were paid for claiming after the early retirement age, and about 8 months later if the lump sum were paid only for those claiming after their full retirement age. Overall, people will work one-third to one-half of the additional months. Those who would currently claim at the youngest ages are most responsive to the lump sum offer.

Reforming German Civil Servant Pensions: Funding Policy, Investment Strategy, and Intertemporal Risk Budgeting

We analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for civil servants in Germany, allowing for alternative portfolio mixes using a Monte Carlo framework and a Conditional Value at Risk metric. First, we estimate contributions as a percent of salary that would fully fund future benefit promises for active employees. Second, we identify an investment strategy for plan assets that will minimize worst-case pension costs; this turns out to be 22% in equities, 47% in bonds, and 30% in real estate. Third, we explore the time path of pension fund asset shortfalls and the chances of contribution holidays for current and future generations. We show that moving toward a funded pension system for German civil servants can be beneficial to both taxpayers and civil servants.

Chapter Chapter Understanding and Allocating Investment Risks in a Hybrid Pension Plan

This paper analyzes pension plan costs and investment strategies in the context of alternative hybrid pension plans which are optimal either from the perspective of the plan sponsor or the beneficiaries.The focus is in particular on how the introduction of minimum and maximum limits for pension benefits as well as minimum guarantees and caps on the return of the members’ individual investment accounts affect investment decisions and plan costs. Within a comparative static analysis framework, it is shown that for low to medium risk portfolios, minimum benefit guarantees tend to be more expensive than minimum return guarantees while for the latter costs increase exponentially with investment risk. The study also finds that portfolio choices of the sponsor and the beneficiaries show substantial differences depending on the exact plan design and the beneficiaries’ risk aversion. Combining minimum return guarantees and caps on investment returns emerged as a possible means to reduce such differences, to share investment risks and returns more equally between sponsor and beneficiaries, and to keep pension plan costs under control. Disciplines Economics Comments The published version of this Working Paper may be found in the 2006 publication: Restructuring Retirement Risks. This working paper is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/prc_papers/384 Restructuring Retirement Risks