Ralph Timmermann

Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current

The Antarctic ice sheet loses mass at its fringes bordering the Southern Ocean. At this boundary, warm circumpolar water can override the continental slope front, reaching the grounding line through submarine glacial troughs and causing high rates of melting at the deep ice-shelf bases. The interplay between ocean currents and continental bathymetry is therefore likely to influence future rates of ice-mass loss. Here we show that a redirection of the coastal current into the Filchner Trough and underneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf during the second half of the twenty-first century would lead to increased movement of warm waters into the deep southern ice-shelf cavity. Water temperatures in the cavity would increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius and boost average basal melting from 0.2 metres, or 82 billion tonnes, per year to almost 4 metres, or 1,600 billion tonnes, per year. Our results, which are based on the output of a coupled ice–ocean model forced by a range of atmospheric outputs from the HadCM3 climate model, suggest that the changes would be caused primarily by an increase in ocean surface stress in the southeastern Weddell Sea due to thinning of the formerly consolidated sea-ice cover. The projected ice loss at the base of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf represents 80 per cent of the present Antarctic surface mass balance. Thus, the quantification of basal mass loss under changing climate conditions is important for projections regarding the dynamics of Antarctic ice streams and ice shelves, and global sea level rise.

Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice–ocean system

[1] The global sea ice - ocean model ORCA2-LIM, driven by the NCEP/NCAR ( National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis daily 2-m air temperatures and 10-m winds and by monthly climatologies for precipitation, cloud cover, and relative humidity, is used to investigate the impact of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the Antarctic sea ice-ocean system. Our results suggest that the response of the circumpolar Southern Ocean consists of an annular and a nonannular component. For the sea ice cover, the non-annular component seems to be the most important. The annular component strongly affects the overall patterns of the upper ocean circulation. When the SAM is in its positive phase, a northward surface Ekman drift, a downwelling at about 45 degreesS, and an upwelling in the vicinity of the Antarctic continent are simulated. The non-annular component has a significant impact at the regional scale, especially in the Weddell, Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen Seas. In those regions, the pressure pattern associated with the SAM induces meridional winds which advect warmer air in the Weddell Sea and around the Antarctic Peninsula and colder air in the Amundsen and Ross Seas. This implies a dipole response of sea ice to the SAM, with on average a decrease in ice area in the Weddell Sea and around the Antarctic Peninsula and an increase in the Ross and Amundsen Seas during years with a high SAM index. The long-term trend in the observed sea ice area does not appear to be related to the trend in the SAM index.

A numerical model of the Weddell Sea: Large‐scale circulation and water mass distribution

A circumpolar model for regional studies of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation of the Southern Ocean including the major sub-ice shelf areas is described. A first series of numerical experiments focusing on the Weddell Sea reveals a pronounced and persistent double-cell structure of the Weddell Gyre with a maximum transport of ∼60 Sv, in agreement with observations. Experiments with artificial passive tracers point to the shallow shelf areas off the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf as main locations for bottom water production. The trajectories of Lagrangian floats are used to determine the pathways and timescales of water mass spreading in the model. In addition, the effect of sub-ice shelf forcing on the water mass characteristics is evaluated. It is shown that water modified in the sub-ice cavities contributes significantly to the deep and bottom water formation along the continental slope, and affects the water mass characteristics throughout the Weddell Sea, by increasing the stability of the near-surface stratification and preventing deep convection.

Ice-shelf basal melting in a global finite-element sea-ice/ice-shelf/ocean model

Abstract The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) has been augmented by an ice-shelf component with a three-equation system for diagnostic computation of boundary layer temperature and salinity. Ice-shelf geometry and global ocean bathymetry have been derived from the RTopo-1 dataset. A global domain with a triangular mesh and a hybrid vertical coordinate is used. To evaluate sub-ice-shelf circulation and melt rates for present-day climate, the model is forced with NCEP reanalysis data. Basal mass fluxes are mostly realistic, with maximum melt rates in the deepest parts near the grounding lines and marine ice formation in the northern sectors of the Ross and Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelves, Antarctica. Total basal mass loss for the ten largest ice shelves reflects the importance of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves; the Getz Ice Shelf is shown to be a major meltwater contributor to the Southern Ocean. Despite their modest melt rates, the ‘cold water’ ice shelves in the Weddell Sea are still substantial sinks of continental ice in Antarctica. Discrepancies between the model and observations can partly be attributed to deficiencies in the forcing data or to (sometimes unavoidable) smoothing of ice-shelf and bottom topographies.

Simulations of ice‐ocean dynamics in the Weddell Sea 2. Interannual variability 1985–1993

Investigations of sea ice-ocean interaction on the continental shelf in the southwestern Weddell Sea reveal a strong correlation between fluctuations of atmospheric forcing and the variability of sea ice formation.Anomalies of meridional wind stress in the inner Weddell Sea are consistent with the phase of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW).Positive anomalies of northward wind stress cause an increase of sea ice export in the same, and of sea ice formation in the following year leading to an increased production of High Salinity Shelf Water.Driven by a varying zonal density distribution over the continental shelf, the circulation in the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf cavity fluctuates between two modes, each of which features a characteristic distribution of basal freezing and melting regions.Thus, signals of interannual atmospheric variability propagate into the deep ocean and the sub-ice shelf cavities.

Southern Ocean warming and increased ice shelf basal melting in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries based on coupled ice-ocean finite-element modelling

We utilise a global finite-element sea ice–ocean model (FESOM), focused on the Antarctic marginal seas, to analyse projections of ice shelf basal melting in a warmer climate. Ice shelf–ocean interaction is described using a three-equation system with a diagnostic computation of temperature and salinity at the ice–ocean interface. A tetrahedral mesh with a minimumhorizontal resolution of 4 km and hybrid vertical coordinates is used. Ice shelf draft, cavity geometry, and global ocean bathymetry have been derived from the RTopo-1 data set. The model is forced with the atmospheric output from two climate models: (1) the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) and (2) Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model. Results from experiments forced with their twentieth century output are used to evaluate the modelled present-day ocean state. Sea ice coverage is largely realistic in both simulations; modelled ice shelf basal melt rates compare well with observations in both cases, but are consistently smaller for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Projections for future ice shelf basal melting are computed using atmospheric output for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios E1 and A1B. In simulations forced with ECHAM5 data, trends in ice shelf basal melting are small. In contrast, decreasing convection along the Antarctic coast in HadCM3 scenarios leads to a decreasing salinity on the continental shelf and to intrusions of warm deep water of open ocean origin. In the case of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), this water reaches deep into the cavity, so that basal melting increases by a factor of 4 to 6 compared to the present value of about 90 Gt/year. By the middle of the twenty-second century, FRIS becomes the dominant contributor to total ice shelf basal mass loss in these simulations. Our results indicate that the surface freshwater fluxes on the continental shelves may be crucial for the future of especially the large cold water ice shelves in the Southern Ocean.

Parameterization of vertical mixing in the Weddell Sea

Abstract A series of vertical mixing schemes implemented in a circumpolar coupled ice–ocean model of the BRIOS family is validated against observations of hydrography and sea ice coverage in the Weddell Sea. Assessed parameterizations include the Richardson number-dependent Pacanowski–Philander scheme, the Mellor–Yamada turbulent closure scheme, the K-profile parameterization, a bulk mixed layer model and the ocean penetrative plume scheme (OPPS). Combinations of the Pacanowski–Philander parameterization or the OPPS with a simple diagnostic model depending on the Monin–Obukhov length yield particularly good results. In contrast, experiments using a constant diffusivity and the traditional convective adjustment cannot reproduce the observations. An underestimation of wind-driven mixing in summer leads to an accumulation of salt in the winter water layer, inducing deep convection in the central Weddell Sea and a homogenization of the water column. Large upward heat fluxes in these simulations lead to the formation of unrealistic, large polynyas in the central Weddell Sea after only a few years of integration. Furthermore, spurious open-ocean convection affects the basin-scale circulation and leads to a significant overestimation of meridional overturning rates. We conclude that an adequate parameterization of both wind-induced mixing and buoyancy-driven convection is crucial for realistic simulations of processes in seasonally ice-covered seas.

Changes in total ocean mass derived from GRACE, GPS, and ocean modeling with weekly resolution

[1] We derive changes in ocean bottom pressure (OBP) and ocean mass by combining modeled ocean bottom pressure, weekly GRACE-derived models of gravity change, and large-scale deformation patterns sensed by a global network of GPS stations in a joint least squares inversion. The weekly combination allows a consistent estimation of geocenter motion, loading mass harmonics up to degree 30, and a spatially uniform mass correction term, which serves as a correction for forcing of the ocean model. We provide maps and time series of ocean mass and bottom pressure variations. Furthermore, we discuss the estimated geocenter motion and the estimated model correction. Our results indicate that the total ocean mass change is predominantly annual, with a maximum amplitude corresponding to 7.4 mm in October, which is in line with earlier work. The mean ocean bottom pressure (i.e., ocean plus atmospheric mass) shows an annual amplitude of 8.7 mm and is shifted forward by about 1.5 months. In addition, the solution exhibits typical autocorrelation times of about 2 weeks. A comparison with in situ bottom pressure time series in the southern Indian Ocean shows a good agreement, with correlations of 0.7-0.8. Based on these comparisons, we see that our results monitor realistic submonthly variations, which are strongest at high latitudes. The addition of GRACE data in the inversion is found to improve these high-latitude variations and enables better separability of the geocenter motion from other unknowns. Increasing the OBP model error from 3 cm to 4.8 cm affects mainly the higher-degree coefficients.

Modeling the spreading of glacial meltwater from the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas

It has been suggested that an increased melting of continental ice in the Amundsen Sea (AS) and Bellingshausen Sea (BS) is a likely source of the observed freshening of Ross Sea (RS) water. To test this hypothesis, we simulate the spreading of glacial meltwater using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice Shelf/Ocean Model. Based on the spatial distribution of simulated passive tracers, most of the basal meltwater from AS ice shelves flows toward the RS with more than half of the melt originating from the Getz Ice Shelf. Further, the model results show that a slight increase of the basal mass loss can substantially intensify the transport of meltwater into the RS due to a strengthening of the melt-driven shelf circulation and the westward flowing coastal current. This supports the idea that the basal melting of AS and BS ice shelves is one of the main sources for the RS freshening.

Assimilation of sea ice motion in a finite-element sea ice model

[1] A finite-element sea ice model (FESIM) is applied in a data assimilation study with the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. The model has been configured for a regional Arctic domain and is forced with a combination of daily NCEP reanalysis data for 2-m air temperature and 10-m winds with monthly mean humidities from the ECMWF reanalysis and climatological fields for precipitation and cloudiness. We assimilate 3-day mean ice drift fields derived from passive microwave satellite data. Based on multivariate covariances (which describe the statistical relationship between anomalies in different model fields), the sea ice drift data assimilation produces not only direct modifications of the ice drift but also updates for sea ice concentration and thickness, which in turn yield sustainable corrections of ice drift. We use observed buoy trajectories as an independent data set to validate the analyzed sea ice drift field. A good agreement between modeled and observed tracks is achieved already in the reference simulation. Application of the SEIK filter with satellite-derived drift fields further improves the agreement. Spatial and temporal variability of ice thickness increases due to the assimilation procedure; a comparison to thickness data from a submarine-based upward looking sonar indicates that the thickness distribution becomes more realistic. Validation with regard to satellite data shows that the velocity data assimilation has only a small effect on ice concentration, but a general improvement of the ice concentration within the pack is still evident.