Rama Seth

Efficiency and risk in Japanese banking

This paper investigates the impact of risk and quality factors on banks’ cost by using the stochastic cost frontier methodology to evaluate scale and X-inefficiencies, as well as technical change for a sample of Japanese commercial banks between 1993 and 1996. Loan-loss provisions are included in the cost frontier model to control for output quality, with a financial capital and a liquidity ratio included to control risk. Following the approach suggested in Mester (1996) we show that if risk and quality factors are not taken into account optimal bank size tends to be overstated. That is, optimal bank size is considerably smaller when risk and quality factors are taken into account when modelling the cost characteristics of Japanese banks. We also find that the level of financial capital has the biggest influence on the scale efficiency estimates. X-inefficiency estimates, in contrast, appear less sensitive to risk and quality factors. Our results also suggest that scale inefficiencies dominate X-inefficiencies. These are important findings because they contrast with the results of previous studies on Japanese banking. In particular, the results indicate an alternative policy prescription, namely, that the largest banks should shrink to benefit from scale advantages. It also seems that financial capital has the largest influence on optimal bank size.

Modeling Foreign Bank Performance and Lending Behavior

This paper examines the profitability and commercial loan growth of foreign banks using a simultaneous-equation framework. Maximizing behavior provides a two-equation system in which bank profitability depends on variables related to expected returns, costs, and risks and in which loan growth is determined by risk and return variables. The model is tested to evaluate the determinants of foreign bank performace and lending behavior in the United States between 1987 and 1991. Overall the results indicate that factors such as capital strength, commercial and industrial loan growth, and assets composition were important in determining foreign banks’ return-on-assets in the period under study. The role of capital appears to be particularly important in explaining foreign bank performance. The single significant determinant of loan growth was found to be previous periods loan growth.