Ramesh Vellore

Sub‐kilometer dynamical downscaling of near‐surface winds in complex terrain using WRF and MM5 mesoscale models

configured with horizontal grid spacing ranging from 27 km in the outermost telescoping to 333 m in the innermost domains and verified with observations collected at four 50-m towers in west-central Nevada during July and December 2007. Moment-based and spectral verification metrics showed that the performance of WRF was superior to MM5. The modeling results were more accurate at 50 m than at 10 m AGL. Both models accurately simulated the mean near-surface wind shear; however, WRF (MM5) generally overestimated (underestimated) mean wind speeds at these levels. The dispersion errors were the dominant component of the root-mean square errors. The major weakness of WRF was the overestimation of the intensity and frequency of strong nocturnal thermally driven flows and their sub-diurnal scale variability, while the main weaknesses of MM5 were larger biases, underestimation of the frequency of stronger daytime winds in the mixed layer and underestimation of the observed spectral kinetic energy of the major energy-containing motions. Neither of the verification metrics showed systematic improvement in the models’ accuracy with increasing the horizontal resolution and the share of dispersion errors increased with increased resolution. However, a profound improvement in the moment-based accuracy was found for the mean vertical wind shear and the temporal variability of wind speed, in particular for summer daytime simulations of the thermally driven flows. The most prominent spectral accuracy improvement among the primary energy-containing frequency bands was found for both models in the summertime diurnal periods. Also, the improvement for WRF (MM5) was more (less) apparent for longer-than-diurnal than for sub-diurnal periods. Finally, the study shows that at least near-kilometer horizontal grid spacing is necessary for dynamical downscaling of near-surface wind speed climate over complex terrain; however, some of the physics options might be less appropriate for grid spacing nearing the scales of the energy-containing turbulent eddies, i.e., resolutions of several hundred meters. In addition to the effects of the lower boundary, the accuracy of the lateral boundary conditions of the parent domains also controls the onset and evolution of the thermally driven flows.

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.

On the anomalous precipitation enhancement over the Himalayan foothills during monsoon breaks

An intriguing feature associated with ‘breaks’ in the Indian summer monsoon is the occurrence of intense/flood-producing precipitation confined to central-eastern parts of the Himalayan (CEH) foothills and north-eastern parts of India. Past studies have documented various large-scale circulation aspects associated with monsoon-breaks, however the dynamical mechanisms responsible for anomalous precipitation enhancement over CEH foothills remain unclear. This problem is investigated using diagnostic analyses of observed and reanalysis products and high-resolution model simulations. The present findings show that the anomalous precipitation enhancement over the CEH foothills during monsoon-breaks emerges as a consequence of interactions between southward intruding mid-latitude westerly troughs and the South Asian monsoon circulation in its weak phase. These interactions facilitate intensification of mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity and strong ascending motion over the CEH foothills, so as to promote deep convection and concentrated rainfall activity over the region during monsoon-breaks. Mesoscale orographic effects additionally tend to amplify the vertical motions and precipitation over the CEH foothills as evidenced from the high-resolution model simulations. It is further noted from the model simulations that the coupling between precipitation and circulation during monsoon-breaks can produce nearly a threefold increase of total precipitation over the CEH foothills and neighborhood as opposed to active-monsoon conditions.

Regional Source Identification Using Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Dispersion and HYSPLIT Backward-Trajectory Models

ABSTRACT The main objective of this study was to investigate the capabilities of the receptor-oriented inverse mode Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Dispersion Model (LSPDM) with the 12-km resolution Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) wind field input for the assessment of source identification from seven regions impacting two receptors located in the eastern United States. The LSPDM analysis was compared with a standard version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) single-particle backward-trajectory analysis using inputs from MM5 and the Eta Data Assimilation System (EDAS) with horizontal grid resolutions of 12 and 80 km, respectively. The analysis included four 7-day summertime events in 2002; residence times in the modeling domain were computed from the inverse LSPDM runs and HYPSLIT-simulated backward trajectories started from receptor-source heights of 100, 500, 1000, 1500, and 3000 m. Statistics were derived using normalized values of LSPDM- and HYSPLIT-predicted residence times versus Community Multiscale Air Quality model-predicted sulfate concentrations used as baseline information. From 40 cases considered, the LSPDM identified first- and second-ranked emission region influences in 37 cases, whereas HYSPLIT-MM5 (HYSPLIT-EDAS) identified the sources in 21 (16) cases. The LSPDM produced a higher overall correlation coefficient (0.89) compared with HYSPLIT (0.55–0.62). The improvement of using the LSPDM is also seen in the overall normalized root mean square error values of 0.17 for LSPDM compared with 0.30–0.32 for HYSPLIT. The HYSPLIT backward trajectories generally tend to underestimate near-receptor sources because of a lack of stochastic dispersion of the backward trajectories and to overestimate distant sources because of a lack of treatment of dispersion. Additionally, the HYSPLIT backward trajectories showed a lack of consistency in the results obtained from different single vertical levels for starting the backward trajectories. To alleviate problems due to selection of a backward-trajectory starting level within a large complex set of 3-dimensional winds, turbulence, and dispersion, results were averaged from all heights, which yielded uniform improvement against all individual cases. IMPLICATIONS Backward-trajectory analysis is one of the standard procedures for determining the spatial locations of possible emission sources affecting given receptors, and it is frequently used to enhance receptor modeling results. This analysis simplifies some of the relevant processes such as pollutant dispersion, and additional methods have been used to improve receptor-source relationships. A methodology of inverse Lagrangian stochastic particle dispersion modeling was used in this study to complement and improve standard backward-trajectory analysis. The results show that inverse dispersion modeling can identify regional sources of haze in national parks and other regions of interest.

Evaluation of Regional-Scale Receptor Modeling

Abstract The ability of receptor models to estimate regional contributions to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was assessed with synthetic, speciated datasets at Brigantine National Wildlife Refuge (BRIG) in New Jersey and Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM) in Tennessee. Synthetic PM2.5 chemical concentrations were generated for the summer of 2002 using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and chemically speciated PM2.5 source profiles from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s SPECIATE and Desert Research Institute’s source profile databases. CMAQ estimated the “true” contributions of seven regions in the eastern United States to chemical species concentrations and individual source contributions to primary PM2.5 at both sites. A seven-factor solution by the positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor model explained approximately 99% of the variability in the data at both sites. At BRIG, PMF captured the first four major contributing sources (including a secondary sul-fate factor), although diesel and gasoline vehicle contributions were not separated. However, at GRSM, the resolved factors did not correspond well to major PM2.5 sources. There were no correlations between PMF factors and regional contributions to sulfate at either site. Unmix produced five- and seven-factor solutions, including a secondary sulfate factor, at both sites. Some PMF factors were combined or missing in the Unmix factors. The trajectory mass balance regression (TMBR) model apportioned sulfate concentrations to the seven source regions using Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) trajectories based on Meteorological Model Version 5 (MM5) and Eta Data Simulation System (EDAS) meteorological input. The largest estimated sulfate contributions at both sites were from the local regions; this agreed qualitatively with the true regional apportionments. Estimated regional contributions depended on the starting elevation of the trajectories and on the meteorological input data.

Monsoon-extratropical circulation interactions in Himalayan extreme rainfall

Extreme precipitation and flood episodes in the Himalayas are oftentimes traced to synoptic situations involving connections between equatorward advancing upper level extratropical circulations and moisture-laden tropical monsoon circulation. While previous studies have documented precipitation characteristics in the Himalayan region during severe storm cases, a comprehensive understanding of circulation dynamics of extreme precipitation mechanisms is still warranted. In this study, a detailed analysis is performed using rainfall observations and reanalysis circulation products to understand the evolution of monsoon-extratropical circulation features and their interactions based on 34 extreme precipitation events which occurred in the Western Himalayas (WEH) during the period 1979–2013. Our results provide evidence for a common large-scale circulation pattern connecting the extratropics and the South Asian monsoon region, which is favorable for extreme precipitation occurrences in the WEH region. This background upper level large-scale circulation pattern consists of a deep southward penetrating midlatitude westerly trough, a blocking high over western Eurasia and an intensifying Tibetan anticyclone. It is further seen from our analysis that the key elements of monsoon-midlatitude interactions, responsible for extreme precipitation events over the WEH region, are: (1) midlatitude Rossby wave breaking, (2) west-northwest propagation of monsoon low-pressure system from the Bay of Bengal across the Indian subcontinent, (3) eddy shedding of the Tibetan anticyclone, (4) ageostrophic motions and transverse circulation across the Himalayas, and (5) strong moist convection over the Himalayan foothills. Furthermore, high-resolution numerical simulations indicate that diabatic heating and mesoscale ageostrophic effects can additionally amplify the convective motions and precipitation in the WEH region.

Influence of monsoons on atmospheric CO2 spatial variability and ground-based monitoring over India.

This study examines the role of Asian monsoons on transport and spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 over the Indian subcontinent, using transport modeling tools and available surface observations from two atmospheric CO2 monitoring sites Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama (CRI) in the western part of peninsular India. The regional source contributions to these sites arise from the horizontal flow in conduits within the planetary boundary layer. Greater CO2 variability, greater than 15 ppm, is observed during winter, while it is reduced nearly by half during summer. The SNG air sampling site is more susceptible to narrow regional terrestrial fluxes transported from the Indo-Gangetic Plains in January, and to wider upwind marine source regions from the Arabian Sea in July. The Western Ghats mountains appear to play a role in the seasonal variability at SNG by trapping polluted air masses associated with weak monsoonal winds. A Lagrangian back-trajectory analysis further suggests that the horizontal extent of regional sensitivity increases from north to south over the Indian subcontinent in January (Boreal winter).

Challenges in Mesoscale Prediction of a Nocturnal Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer and Implications for Operational Forecasting

Abstract A numerical study using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) was performed to assess the impact of initial and boundary conditions, the parameterization of turbulence transfer and its coupling with cloud-driven radiation, and cloud microphysical processes on the accuracy of mesoscale predictions and forecasts of the cloud-capped marine boundary layer. Aircraft, buoy, and satellite data and the large eddy simulation (LES) results during the Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus field experiment (DYCOMS II) in July 2001 were used in the assessment. Three of the tested input fields (Eta, NCEP, and ECMWF) show deficiencies, mainly in the thermodynamic structure of the lowest 1500 m of the marine atmosphere. On a positive note, the simulated marine-layer depth showed good agreement with aircraft observations using the Eta fields, while using the NCEP and ECMWF datasets underestimated the marine-layer depth by about 2...

A method of improving cloud predictions for real-time weather forecasting and visualization

Indirect or passive observations using satellite remote sensing in the visible, infrared and microwave spectra provide global coverage of the thermal states of the cloud tops or the ground surface. The commonly employed temperature profile matching techniques using satellite data and numerical weather prediction models are only relatively successful in estimating the cloud top height (CTH) for optically dense middle and high clouds (cloud tops at heights generally greater than two kilometers). Therefore, accurate predictions of low-level CTH present a formidable challenge to the forecasting and nowcasting community. In this study, we present an approach to estimating low-level CTH by combining the above-cloud information extracted from the satellite imagery and the below-cloud information obtained from weather station measurements. Assumed ranges of brightness temperature and CTH are used to process the cloudy pixels for visualization and classification purposes. Our study indicates that the CTH evaluated using satellite data confirms the presence of low-level clouds in the range 400-1000 m. Accurate estimates of the boundary layer CTH can provide better low-level cloud products (e.g., fog or clouds formed by fog lifting) for improved weather forecasting and applications in the research community.

The role of windward-side diabatic heating in Sierra Nevada spillover precipitation

AbstractThis study focuses on the meso-α- and meso-β-scale manifestations of the latent-heat-induced reduction of windward-side blocking to two flood-producing precipitation events on the leeside of the Sierra Nevada. Two simulations were performed—one employing full microphysics [control (CTRL)] and a second in which the latent heating terms are turned off in the microphysics [no latent heating (NLH)]. The differences between the CTRL and NLH are consistent with upstream latent heating—the moist, divergent, and ascending flow dominates the leeside of the mountain range in the CTRL producing copious spillover precipitation while dry high-momentum/downslope-descending flow dominates the NLH simulation on the leeside. A comprehensive sequence of events for spillover precipitation is formulated as follows: 1) Ascent within the exit region of a polar jet streak develops in response to velocity divergence aloft. 2) This ascent phases with ascent from the windward-side flow to create a mesoscale region of heavy...