Ramon Saccilotto

Prevalence, Characteristics, and Publication of Discontinued Randomized Trials

IMPORTANCE The discontinuation of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) raises ethical concerns and often wastes scarce research resources. The epidemiology of discontinued RCTs, however, remains unclear. OBJECTIVES To determine the prevalence, characteristics, and publication history of discontinued RCTs and to investigate factors associated with RCT discontinuation due to poor recruitment and with nonpublication. DESIGN AND SETTING Retrospective cohort of RCTs based on archived protocols approved by 6 research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada between 2000 and 2003. We recorded trial characteristics and planned recruitment from included protocols. Last follow-up of RCTs was April 27, 2013. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Completion status, reported reasons for discontinuation, and publication status of RCTs as determined by correspondence with the research ethics committees, literature searches, and investigator surveys. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 11.6 years (range, 8.8-12.6 years), 253 of 1017 included RCTs were discontinued (24.9% [95% CI, 22.3%-27.6%]). Only 96 of 253 discontinuations (37.9% [95% CI, 32.0%-44.3%]) were reported to ethics committees. The most frequent reason for discontinuation was poor recruitment (101/1017; 9.9% [95% CI, 8.2%-12.0%]). In multivariable analysis, industry sponsorship vs investigator sponsorship (8.4% vs 26.5%; odds ratio [OR], 0.25 [95% CI, 0.15-0.43]; P < .001) and a larger planned sample size in increments of 100 (-0.7%; OR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-1.00]; P = .04) were associated with lower rates of discontinuation due to poor recruitment. Discontinued trials were more likely to remain unpublished than completed trials (55.1% vs 33.6%; OR, 3.19 [95% CI, 2.29-4.43]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this sample of trials based on RCT protocols from 6 research ethics committees, discontinuation was common, with poor recruitment being the most frequently reported reason. Greater efforts are needed to ensure the reporting of trial discontinuation to research ethics committees and the publication of results of discontinued trials.

San Francisco Syncope Rule to predict short-term serious outcomes: a systematic review

Background: The San Francisco Syncope Rule has been proposed as a clinical decision rule for risk stratification of patients presenting to the emergency department with syncope. It has been validated across various populations and settings. We undertook a systematic review of its accuracy in predicting short-term serious outcomes. Methods: We identified studies by means of systematic searches in seven electronic databases from inception to January 2011. We extracted study data in duplicate and used a bivariate random-effects model to assess the predictive accuracy and test characteristics. Results: We included 12 studies with a total of 5316 patients, of whom 596 (11%) experienced a serious outcome. The prevalence of serious outcomes across the studies varied between 5% and 26%. The pooled estimate of sensitivity of the San Francisco Syncope Rule was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79–0.93), and the pooled estimate of specificity was 0.52 (95% CI 0.43–0.62). There was substantial between-study heterogeneity (resulting in a 95% prediction interval for sensitivity of 0.55–0.98). The probability of a serious outcome given a negative score with the San Francisco Syncope Rule was 5% or lower, and the probability was 2% or lower when the rule was applied only to patients for whom no cause of syncope was identified after initial evaluation in the emergency department. The most common cause of false-negative classification for a serious outcome was cardiac arrhythmia. Interpretation: The San Francisco Syncope Rule should be applied only for patients in whom no cause of syncope is evident after initial evaluation in the emergency department. Consideration of all available electrocardiograms, as well as arrhythmia monitoring, should be included in application of the San Francisco Syncope Rule. Between-study heterogeneity was likely due to inconsistent classification of arrhythmia.

Subgroup analyses in randomised controlled trials: cohort study on trial protocols and journal publications

Objective To investigate the planning of subgroup analyses in protocols of randomised controlled trials and the agreement with corresponding full journal publications. Design Cohort of protocols of randomised controlled trial and subsequent full journal publications. Setting Six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. Data sources 894 protocols of randomised controlled trial involving patients approved by participating research ethics committees between 2000 and 2003 and 515 subsequent full journal publications. Results Of 894 protocols of randomised controlled trials, 252 (28.2%) included one or more planned subgroup analyses. Of those, 17 (6.7%) provided a clear hypothesis for at least one subgroup analysis, 10 (4.0%) anticipated the direction of a subgroup effect, and 87 (34.5%) planned a statistical test for interaction. Industry sponsored trials more often planned subgroup analyses compared with investigator sponsored trials (195/551 (35.4%) v 57/343 (16.6%), P<0.001). Of 515 identified journal publications, 246 (47.8%) reported at least one subgroup analysis. In 81 (32.9%) of the 246 publications reporting subgroup analyses, authors stated that subgroup analyses were prespecified, but this was not supported by 28 (34.6%) corresponding protocols. In 86 publications, authors claimed a subgroup effect, but only 36 (41.9%) corresponding protocols reported a planned subgroup analysis. Conclusions Subgroup analyses are insufficiently described in the protocols of randomised controlled trials submitted to research ethics committees, and investigators rarely specify the anticipated direction of subgroup effects. More than one third of statements in publications of randomised controlled trials about subgroup prespecification had no documentation in the corresponding protocols. Definitive judgments regarding credibility of claimed subgroup effects are not possible without access to protocols and analysis plans of randomised controlled trials.

Completion and publication rates of randomized controlled trials in surgery: an empirical study

OBJECTIVE To investigate the prevalence of discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical versus medical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and to explore risk factors for discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical RCTs. BACKGROUND Trial discontinuation has significant scientific, ethical, and economic implications. To date, the prevalence of discontinuation of surgical RCTs is unknown. METHODS All RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by 6 ethics committees in Canada, Germany, and Switzerland were screened. Baseline characteristics were collected and, if published, full reports retrieved. Risk factors for early discontinuation for slow recruitment and nonpublication were explored using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS In total, 863 RCT protocols involving adult patients were identified, 127 in surgery (15%) and 736 in medicine (85%). Surgical trials were discontinued for any reason more often than medical trials [43% vs 27%, risk difference 16% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5%-26%); P = 0.001] and more often discontinued for slow recruitment [18% vs 11%, risk difference 8% (95% CI: 0.1%-16%); P = 0.020]. The percentage of trials not published as full journal article was similar in surgical and medical trials (44% vs 40%, risk difference 4% (95% CI: -5% to 14%); P = 0.373). Discontinuation of surgical trials was a strong risk factor for nonpublication (odds ratio = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.45-12.06; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS Discontinuation and nonpublication rates were substantial in surgical RCTs and trial discontinuation was strongly associated with nonpublication. These findings need to be taken into account when interpreting surgical literature. Surgical trialists should consider feasibility studies before embarking on full-scale trials.

Learning from failure - rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study)

BackgroundRandomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs.Methods/DesignOur aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs.We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment.DiscussionOur study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Surgical Hand Antisepsis With Alcohol-Based Hand Rub: Comparison of Effectiveness After 1.5 and 3 Minutes of Application

OBJECTIVE Research has shown 1.5 minutes of surgical hand antisepsis with alcohol-based hand rub to be at least as effective under experimental conditions as the 3-minute reference disinfection recommended by European Norm 12791. The aim of the present study was to validate the effectiveness of 1.5 minutes of surgical hand antisepsis in a clinical setting by comparing the effectiveness of 1.5- and 3-minute applications of alcohol-based hand rub (45% vol/vol 2-propanol, 30% vol/vol 1-propanol, and 0.2% mecetronium ethylsulphate). DESIGN Prospective crossover trial in which each surgeon served as his or her own control, with individual randomization to the 1.5- or the 3-minute group during the first part of the trial. SETTING Basel University Hospital, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS Thirty-two surgeons with different levels of postdoctoral training. METHODS We measured the bactericidal effectiveness of 1.5 minutes and 3 minutes of surgical hand antisepsis with alcohol-based hand rub by assessing the mean (+/-SD) log10 number of colony-forming units before the application of hand rub (baseline), after the application of hand rub (immediate effect), and after surgery (sustained effect) so as to follow European Norm 12791 as closely as possible. RESULTS The immediate mean (+/-SD) log10 reduction in colony-forming units (cfu) was 2.26 +/- 1.13 log10 cfu for the 1.5-minute group and 3.01 +/- 1.06 log10 cfu for the 3-minute group (P = .204). Similarly, there was no statistically significant difference between the 2 groups with respect to the sustained effect; the mean (+/-SD) log10 increase in bacterial density during surgery was 1.08 +/- 1.13 log10 cfu for the 1.5-minute group and 0.95 +/- 1.27 log10 cfu for the 3-minute group (P = .708). No adverse effects were recorded. CONCLUSION In this clinical trial, surgical hand antisepsis with alcohol-based hand rub resulted in a similar bacterial reduction, regardless of whether it was applied for 3 or 1.5 minutes, which confirms experimental data generated with healthy volunteers.

Timing of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis: a phase 3 randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Based on observational studies, administration of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis (SAP) for the prevention of surgical site infection (SSI) is recommended within 60 min before incision. However, the precise optimum timing is unknown. This trial compared early versus late administration of SAP before surgery. METHODS In this phase 3 randomised controlled superiority trial, we included general surgery adult inpatients (age ≥18 years) at two Swiss hospitals in Basel and Aarau. Patients were randomised centrally and stratified by hospital according to a pre-existing computer-generated list in a 1:1 ratio to receive SAP early in the anaesthesia room or late in the operating room. Patients and the outcome assessment team were blinded to group assignment. SAP consisted of single-shot, intravenous infusion of 1·5 g of cefuroxime, a commonly used cephalosporin with a short half-life, over 2-5 min (combined with 500 mg metronidazole in colorectal surgery). The primary endpoint was the occurrence of SSI within 30 days of surgery. The main analyses were by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01790529. FINDINGS Between Feb 21, 2013, and Aug 3, 2015, 5580 patients were randomly assigned to receive SAP early (2798 patients) or late (2782 patients). 5175 patients (2589 in the early group and 2586 in the late group) were analysed. Median administration time was 42 min before incision in the early group (IQR 30-55) and 16 min before incision in the late group (IQR 10-25). Inpatient follow-up rate was 100% (5175 of 5175 patients); outpatient 30-day follow-up rate was 88·8% (4596 of 5175), with an overall SSI rate of 5·1% (234 of 4596). Early administration of SAP did not significantly reduce the risk of SSI compared with late administration (odds ratio 0·93, 95% CI 0·72-1·21, p=0·601). INTERPRETATION Our findings do not support any narrowing of the 60-min window for the administration of a cephalosporin with a short half-life, thereby obviating the need for increasingly challenging SAP timing recommendations. FUNDING Swiss National Science Foundation, Hospital of Aarau, University of Basel, Gottfried und Julia Bangerter-Rhyner Foundation, Hippocrate Foundation, and Nora van Meeuwen-Häfliger Foundation.

Personalized Prescription Feedback Using Routinely Collected Data to Reduce Antibiotic Use in Primary Care: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance Feedback interventions using routinely collected health data might reduce antibiotic use nationwide without requiring the substantial resources and structural efforts of other antibiotic stewardship programs. Objective To determine if quarterly antibiotic prescription feedback over 2 years reduces antibiotic use when implemented in a complex health care system. Design, Setting, and Participants Pragmatic randomized trial using routinely collected claims data on 2900 primary care physicians with the highest antibiotic prescription rates in Switzerland. Interventions Physicians were randomized to quarterly updated personalized antibiotic prescription feedback over 2 years (n = 1450) or usual care (n = 1450). Feedback was provided both by mail and online from October 2013 to October 2015 and was supported by an initial 1-time provision of evidence-based guidelines. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the prescribed defined daily doses (DDD) of any antibiotic to any patient per 100 consultations in the first year analyzed by intention-to-treat. We further analyzed prescriptions of specific antibiotics, age groups, and sex for the first and second year to investigate persistency of effects over time. Results The 2900 physicians had 10 660 124 consultations over 2 years of follow-up, prescribed 1 175 780 packages of antibiotics with 10 290 182 DDD. Physicians receiving feedback prescribed the same amount of antibiotics to all patients in the first year (between-group difference, 0.81%; 95% CI, −2.56% to 4.30%; P = .64) and second year (between-group difference, −1.73%; 95% CI, −5.07% to 1.72%; P = .32) compared with the control group. Prescribing to children aged 6 to 18 years was −8.61% lower in the feedback than in the control group in the first year (95% CI, −14.87% to −1.90%; P = .01). This difference diminished in the second year (between-group difference, −4.10%; 95% CI, −10.78% to 3.07%; P = .25). Physicians receiving feedback prescribed fewer antibiotics to adults aged 19 to 65 years in the second year (between-group difference, −4.59%; 95% CI, −7.91% to −1.16%; P < .01). Prescribing to other patient groups or of specific antibiotic types was not significantly different between groups. Conclusions and Relevance This nationwide antibiotic stewardship program with routine feedback on antibiotic prescribing was not associated with a change of antibiotic use. In older children, adolescents, and younger adults less antibiotics were prescribed, but not consistently over the entire intervention period. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01773824

Agreements between Industry and Academia on Publication Rights: A Retrospective Study of Protocols and Publications of Randomized Clinical Trials

Background Little is known about publication agreements between industry and academic investigators in trial protocols and the consistency of these agreements with corresponding statements in publications. We aimed to investigate (i) the existence and types of publication agreements in trial protocols, (ii) the completeness and consistency of the reporting of these agreements in subsequent publications, and (iii) the frequency of co-authorship by industry employees. Methods and Findings We used a retrospective cohort of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) based on archived protocols approved by six research ethics committees between 13 January 2000 and 25 November 2003. Only RCTs with industry involvement were eligible. We investigated the documentation of publication agreements in RCT protocols and statements in corresponding journal publications. Of 647 eligible RCT protocols, 456 (70.5%) mentioned an agreement regarding publication of results. Of these 456, 393 (86.2%) documented an industry partner’s right to disapprove or at least review proposed manuscripts; 39 (8.6%) agreements were without constraints of publication. The remaining 24 (5.3%) protocols referred to separate agreement documents not accessible to us. Of those 432 protocols with an accessible publication agreement, 268 (62.0%) trials were published. Most agreements documented in the protocol were not reported in the subsequent publication (197/268 [73.5%]). Of 71 agreements reported in publications, 52 (73.2%) were concordant with those documented in the protocol. In 14 of 37 (37.8%) publications in which statements suggested unrestricted publication rights, at least one co-author was an industry employee. In 25 protocol-publication pairs, author statements in publications suggested no constraints, but 18 corresponding protocols documented restricting agreements. Conclusions Publication agreements constraining academic authors’ independence are common. Journal articles seldom report on publication agreements, and, if they do, statements can be discrepant with the trial protocol.

Premature Discontinuation of Randomized Trials in Critical and Emergency Care: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objectives:Randomized clinical trials that enroll patients in critical or emergency care (acute care) setting are challenging because of narrow time windows for recruitment and the inability of many patients to provide informed consent. To assess the extent that recruitment challenges lead to randomized clinical trial discontinuation, we compared the discontinuation of acute care and nonacute care randomized clinical trials. Design:Retrospective cohort of 894 randomized clinical trials approved by six institutional review boards in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada between 2000 and 2003. Setting:Randomized clinical trials involving patients in an acute or nonacute care setting. Subjects and Interventions:We recorded trial characteristics, self-reported trial discontinuation, and self-reported reasons for discontinuation from protocols, corresponding publications, institutional review board files, and a survey of investigators. Measurements and Main Results:Of 894 randomized clinical trials, 64 (7%) were acute care randomized clinical trials (29 critical care and 35 emergency care). Compared with the 830 nonacute care randomized clinical trials, acute care randomized clinical trials were more frequently discontinued (28 of 64, 44% vs 221 of 830, 27%; p = 0.004). Slow recruitment was the most frequent reason for discontinuation, both in acute care (13 of 64, 20%) and in nonacute care randomized clinical trials (7 of 64, 11%). Logistic regression analyses suggested the acute care setting as an independent risk factor for randomized clinical trial discontinuation specifically as a result of slow recruitment (odds ratio, 4.00; 95% CI, 1.72–9.31) after adjusting for other established risk factors, including nonindustry sponsorship and small sample size. Conclusions:Acute care randomized clinical trials are more vulnerable to premature discontinuation than nonacute care randomized clinical trials and have an approximately four-fold higher risk of discontinuation due to slow recruitment. These results highlight the need for strategies to reliably prevent and resolve slow patient recruitment in randomized clinical trials conducted in the critical and emergency care setting.