Randal S. Olson

Predator confusion is sufficient to evolve swarming behaviour

Swarming behaviours in animals have been extensively studied owing to their implications for the evolution of cooperation, social cognition and predator–prey dynamics. An important goal of these studies is discerning which evolutionary pressures favour the formation of swarms. One hypothesis is that swarms arise because the presence of multiple moving prey in swarms causes confusion for attacking predators, but it remains unclear how important this selective force is. Using an evolutionary model of a predator–prey system, we show that predator confusion provides a sufficient selection pressure to evolve swarming behaviour in prey. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the evolutionary effect of predator confusion on prey could in turn exert pressure on the structure of the predators visual field, favouring the frontally oriented, high-resolution visual systems commonly observed in predators that feed on swarming animals. Finally, we provide evidence that when prey evolve swarming in response to predator confusion, there is a change in the shape of the functional response curve describing the predators consumption rate as prey density increases. Thus, we show that a relatively simple perceptual constraint—predator confusion—could have pervasive evolutionary effects on prey behaviour, predator sensory mechanisms and the ecological interactions between predators and prey.

Automating Biomedical Data Science Through Tree-Based Pipeline Optimization

Over the past decade, data science and machine learning has grown from a mysterious art form to a staple tool across a variety of fields in academia, business, and government. In this paper, we introduce the concept of tree-based pipeline optimization for automating one of the most tedious parts of machine learning—pipeline design. We implement a Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT) and demonstrate its effectiveness on a series of simulated and real-world genetic data sets. In particular, we show that TPOT can build machine learning pipelines that achieve competitive classification accuracy and discover novel pipeline operators—such as synthetic feature constructors—that significantly improve classification accuracy on these data sets. We also highlight the current challenges to pipeline optimization, such as the tendency to produce pipelines that overfit the data, and suggest future research paths to overcome these challenges. As such, this work represents an early step toward fully automating machine learning pipeline design.

Evaluation of a Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool for Automating Data Science

As the field of data science continues to grow, there will be an ever-increasing demand for tools that make machine learning accessible to non-experts. In this paper, we introduce the concept of tree-based pipeline optimization for automating one of the most tedious parts of machine learning--pipeline design. We implement an open source Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT) in Python and demonstrate its effectiveness on a series of simulated and real-world benchmark data sets. In particular, we show that TPOT can design machine learning pipelines that provide a significant improvement over a basic machine learning analysis while requiring little to no input nor prior knowledge from the user. We also address the tendency for TPOT to design overly complex pipelines by integrating Pareto optimization, which produces compact pipelines without sacrificing classification accuracy. As such, this work represents an important step toward fully automating machine learning pipeline design.

Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer – numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individuals fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

Evolution of swarming behavior is shaped by how predators attack

Animal grouping behaviors have been widely studied due to their implications for understanding social intelligence, collective cognition, and potential applications in engineering, artificial intelligence, and robotics. An important biological aspect of these studies is discerning which selection pressures favor the evolution of grouping behavior. In the past decade, researchers have begun using evolutionary computation to study the evolutionary effects of these selection pressures in predator-prey models. The selfish herd hypothesis states that concentrated groups arise because prey selfishly attempt to place their conspecifics between themselves and the predator, thus causing an endless cycle of movement toward the center of the group. Using an evolutionary model of a predator-prey system, we show that how predators attack is critical to the evolution of the selfish herd. Following this discovery, we show that density-dependent predation provides an abstraction of Hamiltons original formulation of domains of danger. Finally, we verify that density-dependent predation provides a sufficient selective advantage for prey to evolve the selfish herd in response to predation by coevolving predators. Thus, our work corroborates Hamiltons selfish herd hypothesis in a digital evolutionary model, refines the assumptions of the selfish herd hypothesis, and generalizes the domain of danger concept to density-dependent predation.

Exploring the evolution of a trade-off between vigilance and foraging in group-living organisms.

Even though grouping behaviour has been actively studied for over a century, the relative importance of the numerous proposed fitness benefits of grouping remain unclear. We use a digital model of evolving prey under simulated predation to directly explore the evolution of gregarious foraging behaviour according to one such benefit, the ‘many eyes’ hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, collective vigilance allows prey in large groups to detect predators more efficiently by making alarm signals or behavioural cues to each other, thereby allowing individuals within the group to spend more time foraging. Here, we find that collective vigilance is sufficient to select for gregarious foraging behaviour as long there is not a direct cost for grouping (e.g. competition for limited food resources), even when controlling for confounding factors such as the dilution effect. Furthermore, we explore the role of the genetic relatedness and reproductive strategy of the prey and find that highly related groups of prey with a semelparous reproductive strategy are the most likely to evolve gregarious foraging behaviour mediated by the benefit of vigilance. These findings, combined with earlier studies with evolving digital organisms, further sharpen our understanding of the factors favouring grouping behaviour.

PMLB: a large benchmark suite for machine learning evaluation and comparison

BackgroundThe selection, development, or comparison of machine learning methods in data mining can be a difficult task based on the target problem and goals of a particular study. Numerous publicly available real-world and simulated benchmark datasets have emerged from different sources, but their organization and adoption as standards have been inconsistent. As such, selecting and curating specific benchmarks remains an unnecessary burden on machine learning practitioners and data scientists.ResultsThe present study introduces an accessible, curated, and developing public benchmark resource to facilitate identification of the strengths and weaknesses of different machine learning methodologies. We compare meta-features among the current set of benchmark datasets in this resource to characterize the diversity of available data. Finally, we apply a number of established machine learning methods to the entire benchmark suite and analyze how datasets and algorithms cluster in terms of performance. From this study, we find that existing benchmarks lack the diversity to properly benchmark machine learning algorithms, and there are several gaps in benchmarking problems that still need to be considered.ConclusionsThis work represents another important step towards understanding the limitations of popular benchmarking suites and developing a resource that connects existing benchmarking standards to more diverse and efficient standards in the future.

Navigating the massive world of reddit: using backbone networks to map user interests in social media

In the massive online worlds of social media, users frequently rely on organizing themselves around specific topics of interest to find and engage with like-minded people. However, navigating these massive worlds and finding topics of specific interest often proves difficult because the worlds are mostly organized haphazardly, leaving users to find relevant interests by word of mouth or using a basic search feature. Here, we report on a method using the backbone of a network to create a map of the primary topics of interest in any social network. To demonstrate the method, we build an interest map for the social news web site reddit and show how such a map could be used to navigate a social media world. Moreover, we analyze the network properties of the reddit social network and find that it has a scale-free, small-world, and modular community structure, much like other online social networks such as Facebook and Twitter. We suggest that the integration of interest maps into popular social media platforms will assist users in organizing themselves into more specific interest groups, which will help alleviate the overcrowding effect often observed in large online communities.

Data-driven advice for applying machine learning to bioinformatics problems

As the bioinformatics field grows, it must keep pace not only with new data but with new algorithms. Here we contribute a thorough analysis of 13 state-of-the-art, commonly used machine learning algorithms on a set of 165 publicly available classification problems in order to provide data-driven algorithm recommendations to current researchers. We present a number of statistical and visual comparisons of algorithm performance and quantify the effect of model selection and algorithm tuning for each algorithm and dataset. The analysis culminates in the recommendation of five algorithms with hyperparameters that maximize classifier performance across the tested problems, as well as general guidelines for applying machine learning to supervised classification problems.

A Pilot Characterization of the Human Chronobiome

Physiological function, disease expression and drug effects vary by time-of-day. Clock disruption in mice results in cardio-metabolic, immunological and neurological dysfunction; circadian misalignment using forced desynchrony increases cardiovascular risk factors in humans. Here we integrated data from remote sensors, physiological and multi-omics analyses to assess the feasibility of detecting time dependent signals - the chronobiome – despite the “noise” attributable to the behavioral differences of free-living human volunteers. The majority (62%) of sensor readouts showed time-specific variability including the expected variation in blood pressure, heart rate, and cortisol. While variance in the multi-omics is dominated by inter-individual differences, temporal patterns are evident in the metabolome (5.4% in plasma, 5.6% in saliva) and in several genera of the oral microbiome. This demonstrates, despite a small sample size and limited sampling, the feasibility of characterizing at scale the human chronobiome “in the wild”. Such reference data at scale are a prerequisite to detect and mechanistically interpret discordant data derived from patients with temporal patterns of disease expression, to develop time-specific therapeutic strategies and to refine existing treatments.