Randall T. Hanson

A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

[1] Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater– surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supplyconstrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

Application of Flowmeter and Depth‐Dependent Water Quality Data for Improved Production Well Construction

Ground water production wells commonly are designed to maximize well yield and, therefore, may be screened over several water-bearing zones. These water-bearing zones usually are identified, and their hydrogeologic characteristics and water quality are inferred, on the basis of indirect data such as geologic and geophysical logs. Production well designs based on these data may result in wells that are drilled deeper than necessary and are screened through zones having low permeability or poor-quality ground water. In this study, we examined the application of flowmeter logging and depth-dependent water quality samples for the improved design of production wells in a complex hydrogeologic setting. As a demonstration of these techniques, a flowmeter log and depth-dependent water quality data were collected from a long-screened production well within a multilayered coastal aquifer system in the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin, Ventura County, California. Results showed that the well yields most of its water from four zones that constitute 58% of the screened interval. The importance of these zones to well yield was not readily discernible from indirect geologic or geophysical data. The flowmeter logs and downhole water quality data also show that small quantities of poor-quality water could degrade the overall quality of water from the well. The data obtained from one well can be applied to other proposed wells in the same hydrologic basin. The application of flowmeter and depth-dependent water quality data to well design can reduce installation costs and improve the quantity and quality of water produced from wells in complex multiple-aquifer systems.

Feedback of land subsidence on the movement and conjunctive use of water resources

The dependency of surface- or groundwater flows and aquifer hydraulic properties on dewatering-induced layer deformation is not available in the USGSs groundwater model MODFLOW. A new integrated hydrologic model, MODFLOW-OWHM, formulates this dependency by coupling mesh deformation with aquifer transmissivity and storage and by linking land subsidence/uplift with deformation-dependent flows that also depend on aquifer head and other flow terms. In a test example, flows most affected were stream seepage and evapotranspiration from groundwater (ETgw). Deformation feedback also had an indirect effect on conjunctive surface- and groundwater use components: Changed stream seepage and streamflows influenced surface-water deliveries and returnflows. Changed ETgw affected irrigation demand, which jointly with altered surface-water supplies resulted in changed supplemental groundwater requirements and pumping and changed return runoff. This modeling feature will improve the impact assessment of dewatering-induced land subsidence/uplift (following irrigation pumping or coal-seam gas extraction) on surface receptors, inter-basin transfers, and surface-infrastructure integrity. We develop a method to simulate deformation-dependent flows for MODFLOW.We demonstrate the significance of linking subsidence to conjunctive water use.The linkages affect flows across the landscape, surface water, and groundwater.Linked flows are relevant to resource issues that include conjunctive water use.

Hydrologic framework of the Santa Clara Valley, California

The hydrologic framework of the Santa Clara Valley in northern California was redefined on the basis of new data and a new hydrologic model. The regional groundwater flow systems can be subdivided into upper-aquifer and lower-aquifer systems that form a convergent flow system within a basin bounded by mountains and hills on three sides and discharge to pumping wells and the southern San Francisco Bay. Faults also control the flow of groundwater within the Santa Clara Valley and subdivide the aquifer system into three subregions. After decades of development and groundwater depletion that resulted in substantial land subsidence, Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD) and the local water purveyors have refilled the basin through conservation and importation of water for direct use and artificial recharge. The natural flow system has been altered by extensive development with flow paths toward major well fields. Climate has not only affected the cycles of sedimentation during the glacial periods over the past million years, but interannual to interdecadal climate cycles also have affected the supply and demand components of the natural and anthropogenic inflows and outflows of water in the valley. Streamflow has been affected by development of the aquifer system and regulated flow from reservoirs, as well as conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water. Interaquifer flow through water-supply wells screened across multiple aquifers is an important component to the flow of groundwater and recapture of artificial recharge in the Santa Clara Valley. Wellbore flow and depth-dependent chemical and isotopic data indicate that flow into wells from multiple aquifers, as well as capture of artificial recharge by pumping of water-supply wells, predominantly is occurring in the upper 500 ft (152 m) of the aquifer system. Artificial recharge represents about one-half of the inflow of water into the valley for the period 1970–1999. Most subsidence is occurring below 250 ft (76 m), and most pumpage occurs within the upper-aquifer system between 300 and 650 ft (between 91 and 198 m) below land surface. Overall, the natural quality of most groundwater in the Santa Clara Valley is good. Isotopic data indicate that artificial recharge is occurring throughout the shallower parts of the upper-aquifer system and that recent recharge (less than 50 yr old) occurs throughout most of the basin in the upper-aquifer system, but many of the wells in the center of the basin with deeper well screens do not contain tritium and recent recharge. Age dates indicate that the groundwater in the upper-aquifer system generally is less than 2000 yr old, and groundwater in the lower-aquifer system generally ranges from 16,700 to 39,900 yr old. Depth-dependent sampling indicates that wellbores are the main path for vertical flow between aquifer layers. Isotopic data indicate as much as 60% of water pumped from production wells originated as artificial recharge. Shallow aquifers not only contain more recent recharge but may be more susceptible to anthropogenic and natural contamination, as evidenced by trace occurrences of iron, nitrate, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in selected water-supply wells. Water-resource management issues are centered on sustaining a reliable and good-quality source of water to the residents and industries of the valley. While the basin has been refilled, increased demand owing to growth and droughts could result in renewed storage depletion and the related potential adverse effects of land subsidence and seawater intrusion. The new hydrologic model demonstrates the importance of the aquifer layering, faults, and stream channels in relation to groundwater flow and infiltration of recharge. This model provides a means to analyze water resource issues because it separates the supply and demand components of the inflows and outflows.

Advective transport observations with MODPATH-OBS--documentation of the MODPATH observation process

The MODPATH-OBS computer program described in this report is designed to calculate simulated equivalents for observations related to advective groundwater transport that can be represented in a quantitative way by using simulated particle-tracking data. The simulated equivalents supported by MODPATH-OBS are (1) distance from a source location at a defined time, or proximity to an observed location; (2) time of travel from an initial location to defined locations, areas, or volumes of the simulated system; (3) concentrations used to simulate groundwater age; and (4) percentages of water derived from contributing source areas. Although particle tracking only simulates the advective component of conservative transport, effects of non-conservative processes such as retardation can be approximated through manipulation of the effective-porosity value used to calculate velocity based on the properties of selected conservative tracers. This program can also account for simple decay or production, but it cannot account for diffusion. Dispersion can be represented through direct simulation of subsurface heterogeneity and the use of many particles. MODPATH-OBS acts as a postprocessor to MODPATH, so that the sequence of model runs generally required is MODFLOW, MODPATH, and MODPATH-OBS. The version of MODFLOW and MODPATH that support the version of MODPATH-OBS presented in this report are MODFLOW2000/2005 or MODFLOW-LGR, and MODPATH or MODPATH-LGR. MODFLOW-LGR is derived from MODFLOW-2005, MODPATH 5, and MODPATH 6 and supports local grid refinement. MODPATH-LGR is derived from MODPATH 5. It supports the forward and backward tracking of particles through locally refined grids and provides the output needed for MODPATH-OBS. MODPATH-LGR and MODPATH-OBS simulations can use nearly all of the capabilities of MODFLOW-2005 and MODFLOW-LGR; for example, simulations may be steady-state, transient, or a combination. Though the program name MODPATH-OBS specifically refers to observations, the program also can be used to calculate model prediction of observations. MODPATH-OBS is primarily intended for use with separate programs that conduct sensitivity analysis, data needs assessment, parameter estimation, and uncertainty analysis, such as UCODE_2005, and PEST. In many circumstances, refined grids in selected parts of a model are important to simulated hydraulics, detailed inflows and outflows, or other system characteristics. MODFLOW-LGR and MODPATH-LGR support accurate local grid refinement in which both mass (flows) and energy (head) are conserved across the local grid boundary. MODPATH-OBS is designed to take advantage of these capabilities. For example, particles tracked between a pumping well and a nearby stream, which are simulated poorly if a river and well are located in a single large grid cell, can be simulated with improved accuracy using a locally refined grid in MODFLOW-LGR, MODPATH-LGR, and MODPATHOBS. The locally-refined-grid approach can provide more accurate simulated equivalents to observed transport between the well and the river. The documentation presented here includes a brief discussion of previous work, description of the methods, and detailed descriptions of the required input files and how the output files are typically used.

MODPATH-LGR; documentation of a computer program for particle tracking in shared-node locally refined grids by using MODFLOW-LGR

MODPATH-LGR is a particle tracking post-processing program for computing three-dimensional flow paths for steady-state and transient groundwater flow in models with local-grid refinement (sometimes called embedded models). Locally refined grids consist of a larger regional-scale parent model and one or more smaller embedded local-scale child models. This program uses output produced by MODFLOWLGR, in which child grids in parent grids are refined by using the Shared-Node Local Grid Refinement (LGR) package of the three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model MODFLOW published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The particle tracking scheme is based on MODPATH, which uses an analytical expression for particle movement within each finite-difference cell. Particles are tracked among cells until discharged through model boundaries, weak sinks, or other designated discharge zones. MODPATHLGR tracks particles between the parent and child models by using flows calculated at the interface boundaries. Flows calculated by MODFLOW-LGR are modified to account for fractional finite-difference cells along the shared-node interface between parent and child models. Required program input includes standard MODPATH input files for the parent and child models and a MODPATH-LGR control file. This documentation describes how particles are transferred between parent and child models and demonstrates program operation with two hypothetical steady-state xsimulations.