Randi Selmer

The Oslo Health Study: The impact of self-selection in a large, population-based survey

BackgroundResearch on health equity which mainly utilises population-based surveys, may be hampered by serious selection bias due to a considerable number of invitees declining to participate. Sufficient information from all the non-responders is rarely available to quantify this bias. Predictors of attendance, magnitude and direction of non-response bias in prevalence estimates and association measures, are investigated based on information from all 40 888 invitees to the Oslo Health Study.MethodsThe analyses were based on linkage between public registers in Statistics Norway and the Oslo Health Study, a population-based survey conducted in 2000/2001 inviting all citizens aged 30, 40, 45, 59–60 and 75–76 years. Attendance was 46%. Weighted analyses, logistic regression and sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate possible selection bias.ResultsThe response rate was positively associated with age, educational attendance, total income, female gender, married, born in a Western county, living in the outer city residential regions and not receiving disability benefit. However, self-rated health, smoking, BMI and mental health (HCSL) in the attendees differed only slightly from estimated prevalence values in the target population when weighted by the inverse of the probability of attendance.Observed values differed only moderately provided that the non-attending individuals differed from those attending by no more than 50%. Even though persons receiving disability benefit had lower attendance, the associations between disability and education, residential region and marital status were found to be unbiased. The association between country of birth and disability benefit was somewhat more evident among attendees.ConclusionsSelf-selection according to sociodemographic variables had little impact on prevalence estimates. As indicated by disability benefit, unhealthy persons attended to a lesser degree than healthy individuals, but social inequality in health by different sociodemographic variables seemed unbiased. If anything we would expect an overestimation of the odds ratio of chronic disease among persons born in non-western countries.

Blood Glucose and Risk of Incident and Fatal Cancer in the Metabolic Syndrome and Cancer Project (Me-Can): Analysis of Six Prospective Cohorts

Tanja Stocks and colleagues carry out an analysis of six European cohorts and confirm that abnormal glucose metabolism is linked with increased risk of cancer overall and at specific sites.

Height and body mass index in relation to total mortality

Background. The relation between body mass index (BMI) and mortality is not clear in the literature. An inverse relation between height and mortality has been suggested. We explore these relations in a very large cohort in Norway. Methods. We studied two million men and women, age 20–74 years, who were measured during 1963–2000. These persons were followed for an average of 22.1 years. We used Cox proportional hazard models in the analyses. Also, the optimal BMI (the BMI at the time of measurement that was subsequently related to the lowest mortality) was estimated. Results. Over the study period, 723,000 deaths were registered. The relative risk of death by BMI showed a J- or U-shaped curve, with the lowest rates of death at BMI between 22.5 and 25.0. In men, the optimal BMI increased from 21.6 when measured at age 20–29 to 24.0 when measured at age 70–74. In women, the optimal BMI was consistently higher, increasing from 22.2 to 25.7. Mortality decreased with increased height in men; in women, mortality decreased with height only up to heights of about 160–164 cm and then increased among the tallest women. Conclusions. The relation between BMI and mortality was J- or U-shaped, with the “optimal” BMI varying by age and sex. Height was inversely related to mortality in men and in women up to a height of 165 cm.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.

IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration

IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Metabolic Syndrome and Breast Cancer in the Me-Can (Metabolic Syndrome and Cancer) Project

Background: Few studies have assessed the metabolic syndrome (MetS) as an entity in relation to breast cancer risk, and results have been inconsistent. We aimed to examine the association between MetS factors (individually and combined) and risk of breast cancer incidence and mortality. Methods: Two hundred ninety thousand women from Austria, Norway, and Sweden were enrolled during 1974-2005, with measurements of height, weight, blood pressure, and levels of glucose, cholesterol, and triglycerides. Relative risks (RR) of breast cancer were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression for each MetS factor in quintiles and for standardized levels (z-scores) and for a composite z-score for the MetS. Results: There were 4,862 incident cases of breast cancer and 633 deaths from breast cancer identified. In women below age 50, there was a decreased risk of incident cancer for the MetS (per 1-unit increment of z-score; RR, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.90) as well as for the individual factors (except for glucose). The lowest risks were seen among the heaviest women. In women above age 60, there was an increased risk of breast cancer mortality for the MetS (RR, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.45) and for blood pressure and glucose. The strongest association with mortality was seen for increased glucose concentrations. Conclusions: The MetS was associated with a decreased risk of incident breast cancer in women below age 50 with high body mass index, and with an increased risk of breast cancer mortality in women above 60. Impact: Lifestyle interventions as recommended for cardiovascular disease prevention may be of value to prevent breast cancer mortality in postmenopausal women. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(7); 1737–45. ©2010 AACR.

Glycated Hemoglobin Measurement and Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease

IMPORTANCE The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. OBJECTIVE To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥ 7.5%) risk. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.

Heart rate and mortality from cardiovascular causes : a 12 year follow-up study of 379 843 men and women aged 40-45 years

AIM To study the relationship between heart rate and (a) all deaths and (b) cardiovascular deaths in a large cohort of middle-aged Norwegian men and women. METHODS AND RESULTS A prospective study of participants in cardiovascular surveys that were carried out in 1985-1999 and covered men and women aged 40-45 years in all counties except the capital, Oslo. In total, 180,353 men and 199,490 women aged 40-45 years without cardiovascular history or diabetes accrued 4 775 683 years of follow-up. There was a positive and graded association between heart rate and mortality from all causes, as well as between heart rate and deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), ischaemic heart disease, and stroke. However, these associations were greatly reduced when we adjusted for the main risk factors of disease. The hazard ratios for any death were reduced from 3.14 to 1.82 for men (95% CI, 1.62-2.04) and from 2.14 to 1.37 for women (95% CI, 1.19-1.59), when we compared > or =95 b.p.m. with <65 b.p.m. The corresponding figures for CVD were a reduction from 4.79 to 1.51 for men (95% CI, 1.21-1.87) and from 2.68 to 0.78 for women (95% CI, 0.53-1.15). CONCLUSION In this cohort of middle-aged men and women, a crude association between heart rate and death from CVDs was greatly weakened when we adjusted for the main risk factors of disease. This suggests that an increased heart rate in middle age may be a marker of high cardiovascular risk, but is not an independent risk factor.

The validity of self-reported leisure time physical activity, and its relationship to serum cholesterol, blood pressure and body mass index. A population based study of 332,182 men and women aged 40–42 years

The importance of leisure time physical activity as a health indicator became more obvious after the results of large prospective studies were published. The validity of these results depends upon both the selection of the active individuals and to what extent self-reported physical activity reflects the individuals true activity. The purpose of this paper is to describe the changes in self-reported physical activity, and to assess the relation between this variable and other biological risk factors such as blood lipids, blood pressure and body mass index (BMI). This report also aims at corroborating the validity of self-reported physical activity by assessing the consistency of the associations between these biological risk factors and physical activity during a 25-years period. The basis for this analysis is a long lasting observational study with a questionnaire as the most important research instrument, in addition to physiological and biological factors such as BMI, blood pressure and blood lipids. The study population consists of 332,182 individuals, aged 40–42 from different counties in Norway who were invited to participate in health survey during 1974–1999. The objectives of this study are (1) to describe changes in self-reported physical activity from 1974 to 1999; (2) to assess the relation between physical activity and the biological variables; and (3) to corroborate the validity of the variable physical activity by assessing the consistency of the above analysis. The results of the analyses of association between decade of birth and self-reported physical activity show that physical activity among 40-aged individuals decreased during 1974–1999. This trend is stronger among the men. Multivariate analyses revealed differences in BMI and serum cholesterol between levels of self-reported physical activity, gender, smoking habits and decade of birth. The explained percentage of the total variance ranged from 6% for BMI to 7% for serum cholesterol. The similar shape of serum cholesterol and BMI according to physical activity indicates that the validity of self-reported physical activity has remained stable over these 25 years. Furthermore, the analysis of covariance showed that the slopes relating year of birth and serum cholesterol and BMI are parallel for self-reported physical activity thus the validity of the variable is confirmed.

Income, educational level and body height.

The relation between adult body height and two socio-economic factors (income and educational level) was studied in a large, ethnically homogenous population. In the period 1980-1983 all persons aged 40-54 years (born 1926-1941) in two Norwegian counties were invited to a cardiovascular screening. Ninety per cent (or 38162 persons) of those invited attended and had their height measured. Information concerning income and education was available at an individual level from the 1980 national census. Strong, positive relations were found between mean body height and the socio-economic factors, relations that probably are due to conditions during growth influencing both height, attained education and income abilities. The difference between highest and lowest educational class was 3.3 cm in men and 3.2 cm in women, and between highest and lowest income group 3.5 cm in men and 4.2 cm in women. These differences could not be explained by the strong cohort effect of increasing height in the successive birth cohorts from 1926 to 1941 which also was evident. It should be emphasized that height only could explain a small fraction of the variance in the socio-economic factors and is thus not a usable indicator of an individuals socio-economic status. However, it might contribute with important information concerning social inequalities in groups or population.