Ranjeet John

Land cover/land use change in semi-arid Inner Mongolia: 1992–2004

The semi-arid grasslands in Inner Mongolia (IM) are under increasing stress owing to climate change and rapid socio-economic development in the recent past. We investigated changes in land cover/land use and landscape structure between 1992 and 2004 through the analysis of AVHRR and MODIS derived land cover data. The scale of analysis included the regional level (i.e. the whole of IM) as well as the level of the dominant biomes (i.e. the grassland and desert). We quantified proportional change, rate of change and the changes in class-level landscape metrics using the landscape structure analysis program FRAGSTATS. The dominant land cover types, grassland and barren, 0.47 and 0.27 million km 2 , respectively, have increased proportionally. Cropland and urban land use also increased to 0.15 million km 2 and 2197 km 2 , respectively. However, the results further indicated increases in both the homogeneity and fragmentation of the landscape. Increasing homogeneity was mainly related to the reduction in minority cover types such as savanna, forests and permanent wetlands and increasing cohesion, aggregation index and clumpy indices. Conversely, increased fragmentation of the landscape was based on the increase in patch density and the interspersion/juxtaposition index (IJI). It is important to note the socio-economic growth in this fragile ecosystem, manifested by an increasing proportion of agricultural and urban land use not just at the regional level but also at the biome level in the context of regional climate change and increasing water stress.

Vegetation response to extreme climate events on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2010

Climate change has led to more frequent extreme winters (aka, dzud) and summer droughts on the Mongolian Plateau during the last decade. Among these events, the 2000?2002 combined summer drought?dzud and 2010 dzud were the most severe on vegetation. We examined the vegetation response to these extremes through the past decade across the Mongolian Plateau as compared to decadal means. We first assessed the severity and extent of drought using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). We then examined the effects of drought by mapping anomalies in vegetation indices (EVI, EVI2) and land surface temperature derived from MODIS and AVHRR for the period of 2000?2010. We found that the standardized anomalies of vegetation indices exhibited positively skewed frequency distributions in dry years, which were more common for the desert biome than for grasslands. For the desert biome, the dry years (2000?2001, 2005 and 2009) were characterized by negative anomalies with peak values between ?1.5 and ?0.5 and were statistically different (P?<?0.001) from relatively wet years (2003, 2004 and 2007). Conversely, the frequency distributions of the dry years were not statistically different (p?<?0.001) from those of the relatively wet years for the grassland biome, showing that they were less responsive to drought and more resilient than the desert biome. We found that the desert biome is more vulnerable to drought than the grassland biome. Spatially averaged EVI was strongly correlated with the proportion of land area affected by drought (PDSI?<??1) in Inner Mongolia (IM) and Outer Mongolia (OM), showing that droughts substantially reduced vegetation activity. The correlation was stronger for the desert biome (R2?=?65 and 60, p?<?0.05) than for the IM grassland biome (R2?=?53, p?<?0.05). Our results showed significant differences in the responses to extreme climatic events (summer drought and dzud) between the desert and grassland biomes on the Plateau.

Poplar plantation has the potential to alter the water balance in semiarid inner Mongolia

Poplar plantation is the most dominant broadleaf forest type in northern China. Since the mid-1990s plantation was intensified to combat desertification along Chinas northwestern border, i.e., within Inner Mongolia (IM). This evoked much concern regarding the ecological and environmental effects on areas that naturally grow grass or shrub vegetation. To highlight potential consequences of large-scale poplar plantations on the water budget within semiarid IM, we compared the growing season water balance (evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation (PPT)) of a 3-yr old poplar plantation (Kp(3)) and a natural shrubland (Ks) in the Kubuqi Desert in western IM, and a 6-yr old poplar plantation (Bp(6)) growing under sub-humid climate near Beijing. The results showed that, despite 33% lower PPT at Kp(3), ET was 2% higher at Kp(3) (228 mm) as compared with Ks (223 mm) in May-September 2006. The difference derived mainly from higher ET at the plantation during drier periods of the growing season, which also indicated that the poplars must have partly transpired groundwater. Estimated growing season ET at Bp(6) was about 550 mm and more than 100% higher than at Kp(3). It is estimated that increases in leaf area index and net radiation at Kp(3) provide future potential for the poplars in Kubuqi to exceed the present ET and ET of the natural shrubland by 100-200%. These increases in ET are only possible through the permanent use of groundwater either directly by the trees or through increased irrigation. This may significantly change the water balance in the area (e.g., high ET at the cost of a reduction in the water table), which renders large-scale plantations a questionable tool in sustainable arid-land management.

Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005?trends at regional, biome and local scales

This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

Net ecosystem methane and carbon dioxide exchanges in a Lake Erie coastal marsh and a nearby cropland

Net ecosystem carbon dioxide (FCO2) and methane (FCH4) exchanges were measured by using the eddy covariance method to quantify the atmospheric carbon budget at a Typha- and Nymphaea-dominated freshwater marsh (March 2011 to March 2013) and a soybean cropland (May 2011 to May 2012) in northwestern Ohio, USA. Two year average annual FCH4 (49.7 g C-CH4 m−2 yr−1) from the marsh was high and compatible with its net annual CO2 uptake (FCO2: −21.0 g C-CO2 m−2 yr−1). In contrast, FCH4 was small (2.3 g C-CH4 m−2 yr−1) and accounted for a minor portion of the atmospheric carbon budget (FCO2: −151.8 g C-CO2 m−2 yr−1) at the cropland. At the seasonal scale, soil temperature associated with methane (CH4) production provided the dominant regulator of FCH4 at the marsh (R2 = 0.86). At the diurnal scale, plant-modulated gas flow was the major pathway for CH4 outgassing in the growing season at the marsh. Diffusion and ebullition became the major pathways in the nongrowing season and were regulated by friction velocity. Our findings highlight the importance of freshwater marshes for their efficiency in turning over and releasing newly fixed carbon as CH4. Despite marshes accounting for only ~4% of area in the agriculture-dominated landscape, their high FCH4 should be carefully addressed in the regional carbon budget.

Policy shifts influence the functional changes of the CNH systems on the Mongolian plateau

By applying the concept of the coupled natural and human system (CNH), we compared spatiotemporal changes in livestock (LSK), land cover, and ecosystem production to understand the relative roles that natural and social driving forces have on CNH dynamics on the Mongolia plateau. We used socioeconomic and physical data at prefecture level for Inner Mongolia and Mongolia from 1981 through 2010 to represent changes in net primary productivity (NPP), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), precipitation, annual average temperature, LSK, livestock density (LSKD), land cover change (LCC), gross domestic production (GDP), and population (POP). The ratios such as LSK:NPP, LSKD: EVI, LSKD:albedo, LSK:POP, and LSK:GDP were examined and compared between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied to quantify the complex interactions. Substantial differences in LSK, POP, and economic development were found among the biomes and between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. When various indicators for policy shifts—such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) for China, the Third Campaign to Reclaim Abandoned Agriculture Lands (ATAR-3), and the Grain for Green Program for China (GFG)—were added into our SEM, the results showed significant change in the strength of the above relationships. After China joined the WTO, the relationships in Inner Mongolia between LSKD:LCC and LSKD:NPP were immensely strengthened, whereas relationships in NPP:LCC were weakened. In Mongolia, the ATAR-3 program first appeared to be an insignificant policy, but the Collapse of the Soviet Union enhanced the correlation between LSKD:LCC, weakened the connection of LCC:NPP, and did not affect LSKD:NPP. We conclude that human influences on the Mongolian CNH system exceeded those of the biophysical changes, but that the significance varies in time and per biome, as well as between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia.

Urbanization and environmental change during the economic transition on the Mongolian Plateau: Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar

Driven by drastic socioeconomic changes in China and Mongolia, urbanization has become one of the most significant driving forces in the transformation of the Mongolian Plateau in the past 30 years. Using Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar as case studies, we developed a holistic approach to examine the socioeconomic and natural driving forces for urbanization and to investigate the impact on the urban environment. We used a multidisciplinary approach and relied on a variety of data sources to assess the changes of the landscape and environment of the two cities. We detected a rapid urbanization in Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar, both in terms of urban population growth and urban land expansion, from 1990 to 2010, with a much faster speed in 2000-2010. The local geo-physical conditions have constrained the spatial direction of expansion. Ulaanbaatar lagged behind Hohhot for about a decade when measured by indicators of urban population and urban land. Both cities have a degraded urban environment and a growing air pollution epidemic. While Hohhot had worse air pollution than Ulaanbaatar in the early 2000s, the gap between the two cities became smaller after 2010. The research presented here highlights the following as key determinants for urbanization and environmental change: (1) the co-evolution of urbanization, economic development, and environmental change; (2) the urbanization of transitional economies driven by the change of the economic structure, i.e., the development by both manufacturing and tertiary sectors and the change in the primary sector; and (3) the recent institutional changes and increased integration with the global economy.

Evapotranspiration of annual and perennial biofuel crops in a variable climate

Eddy covariance measurements were made in seven fields in the Midwest USA over 4 years (including the 2012 drought year) to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) of newly established rain‐fed cellulosic and grain biofuel crops. Four of the converted fields had been managed as grasslands under the USDAs Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) for 22 years, and three had been in conventional agriculture (AGR) soybean/corn rotation prior to conversion. In 2009, all sites were planted to no‐till soybean except one CRP grassland that was left unchanged as a reference site; in 2010, three of the former CRP sites and the three former AGR sites were planted to annual (corn) and perennial (switchgrass and mixed‐prairie) grasslands. The annual ET over the 4 years ranged from 45% to 77% (mean = 60%) of the annual precipitation (848–1063 mm; November–October), with the unconverted CRP grassland having the highest ET (622–706 mm). In the fields converted to annual and perennial crops, the annual ET ranged between 480 and 639 mm despite the large variations in growing‐season precipitation and in soil water contents, which had strong effects on regional crop yields. Results suggest that in this humid temperate climate, which represents the US Corn Belt, water use by annual and perennial crops is not greatly different across years with highly variable precipitation and soil water availability. Therefore, large‐scale conversion of row crops to perennial biofuel cropping systems may not strongly alter terrestrial water balances.

Estimating Stand Volume and Above-Ground Biomass of Urban Forests Using LiDAR

Assessing forest stand conditions in urban and peri-urban areas is essential to support ecosystem service planning and management, as most of the ecosystem services provided are a consequence of forest stand characteristics. However, collecting data for assessing forest stand conditions is time consuming and labor intensive. A plausible approach for addressing this issue is to establish a relationship between in situ measurements of stand characteristics and data from airborne laser scanning (LiDAR). In this study we assessed forest stand volume and above-ground biomass (AGB) in a broadleaved urban forest, using a combination of LiDAR-derived metrics, which takes the form of a forest allometric model. We tested various methods for extracting proxies of basal area (BA) and mean stand height (H) from the LiDAR point-cloud distribution and evaluated the performance of different models in estimating forest stand volume and AGB. The best predictors for both models were the scale parameters of the Weibull distribution of all returns (except the first) (proxy of BA) and the 95th percentile of the distribution of all first returns (proxy of H). The R2 were 0.81 (p < 0.01) for the stand volume model and 0.77 (p < 0.01) for the AGB model with a RMSE of 23.66 m3·ha−1 (23.3%) and 19.59 Mg·ha−1 (23.9%), respectively. We found that a combination of two LiDAR-derived variables (i.e., proxy of BA and proxy of H), which take the form of a forest allometric model, can be used to estimate stand volume and above-ground biomass in broadleaved urban forest areas. Our results can be compared to other studies conducted using LiDAR in broadleaved forests with similar methods.

Modelling gross primary production in semi-arid Inner Mongolia using MODIS imagery and eddy covariance data

We evaluate the modelling of carbon fluxes from eddy covariance (EC) tower observations in different water-limited land-cover/land-use (LCLU) and biome types in semi-arid Inner Mongolia, China. The vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM) and modified VPM (MVPM), driven by the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and land-surface water index (LSWI), which were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface-reflectance product (MOD09A1), were used to model and validate the temporal changes in gross primary production (GPP) from the EC towers during the 2006 and 2007 growing seasons. The annual GPP predicted by the VPM model (GPPVPM) was predicted reasonably well in 2006 and 2007 at the cropland (coefficient of determination, R 2 = 0.67 and 0.71, for 2006 and 2007, respectively) and typical steppe (R 2 = 0.80 and 0.73) sites. The predictive power of the VPM model varied in the desert steppe, which includes an irrigated poplar stand (R 2 = 0.74 and 0.68) and shrubland (R 2 = 0.31 and 0.49) sites. The comparison between GPP obtained from the eddy covariance tower (GPPtower) and GPP obtained from MVPM (GPPMVPM) (predicted GPP) showed good agreement for the typical steppe site of Xilinhaote (R 2 = 0.84 and 0.70 in 2006 and 2007, respectively) and for the Duolun steppe site (R 2 = 0.63) and cropland site (R 2 = 0.63) in 2007. The predictive power of the MVPM model decreased slightly in the desert steppe at the irrigated poplar stand (R 2 = 0.56 and 0.47 in 2006 and 2007 respectively) and the shrubland (R 2 = 0.20 and 0.41). The results of this study demonstrate the feasibility of modelling GPP from EC towers in semi-arid regions.