Raoul Minetti

Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence

We analyse the impact of financial liberalization on the link between monetary policy and house prices. We present a simple model of a small open economy subjectto credit constraints. The model shows that the higher the degree of financial liberalizationis, the stronger is the impact of interest rate shocks on house prices. We then usevector autoregressions to study the role of monetary policy shocks in house price fluctuations in Finland, Sweden and the UK, characterized by financial liberalizationepisodes over the last 20 years. We find that the response of house prices to interestrate surprises is bigger and more persistent in periods characterized by more liberalized financial markets. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester 2003

Banks, Sovereign Debt and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

This paper studies the international propagation of sovereign debt default. We posit a two-country economy where capital constrained banks grant loans to firms and invest in bonds issued by the domestic and the foreign government. The model economy is calibrated to data from Europe, with the two countries representing the Periphery (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and the Core, respectively. Large contractionary shocks in the Periphery trigger sovereign default. We find sizable spillover effects of default from Periphery to the Core through a drop in the volume of credit extended by the banking sector.

On the Essentiality of Banks

We compare allocations sustained by credit with allocations sustained by bank notes (inside money) in a search model with decentralized trade and limited monitoring. We demonstrate that there exists a credit arrangement that is superior to inside money. However, in contrast with inside money, this arrangement is not robust to an expansion of trade that is not accompanied by an adequate increase in the degree of monitoring. Therefore, banks are essential when trade is intense and monitoring is limited. As a historical application, we argue that our model helps explain the origins of banking in Medieval and Early Modern Europe.

The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy and Housing Markets: International Empirical Evidence

This paper tests for the presence of a credit channel (particularly a bank-lending sub-channel) for monetary policy in the housing market. We argue that the importance of this channel for investment in residential housing is highly dependent on the structural features, and particularly the efficiency and institutional organization, of housing finance. We employ a VAR methodology to analyse this issue with respect to the housing markets of four European countries (Finland, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom), which differ greatly in terms of structural features. Our results are generally consistent with the existence of a broad credit channel, whereas the bank-lending channel seems to be operational only under certain conditions. More importantly, our results are consistent with previous analyses of housing market efficiency, which strongly suggests the existence of a clear relationship between the presence of a credit (bank lending) channel, the efficiency level of housing finance, and the type of institutions that are active in mortgage provision.

ASSET DYNAMICS, LIQUIDITY, AND INEQUALITY IN DECENTRALIZED MARKETS: ASSET DYNAMICS, LIQUIDITY

The Kiyotaki and Wright model has exerted a considerable influence on the monetary search literature. We argue that the model also delivers important insights into a broader range of macroeconomic and development issues. The analysis studies how market frictions and the liquidity of assets affect the distribution of income. Experiments illustrate how the economy adjusts to shocks to asset returns and to the matching technology. They also deal with long‐run transition. An experiment interprets the reversal of fortune hypothesis as a situation in which an economy with a low‐return asset takes over a similar economy with a high‐return asset. (JEL C61, C63, E41, E27, D63)

Obsolescence and Decline of Social Capital

This paper formalizes a theory of the obsolescence and decline of social capital based on the interplay between social capital and the flexibility of productive resources. In our economy, agents with specific skills are held up by their principals. Inside communities, agents learn about each other and thereby engage in mutual aid, preventing the hold-up. As agents learn about each other, they share skills and gain flexibility. In the long run, this may render mutual aid obsolete, causing its decline.