Raphael J. Nawrotzki

The Politics of Environmental Concern: A Cross-National Analysis

Prior research in the United States has found that liberals are generally more environmentally concerned than conservatives. The present study explores whether conservatives’ opposition to environmental protection is solely a U.S. or a universal phenomenon and whether this association is contingent on country-level characteristics, such as development, environmental conditions, and communist history. Employing data for 19 countries from the International Social Survey Program module “Environment II,” this article explores inter-country variations in the relationship between individual conservatism and environmental concern using multilevel modeling with cross-level interactions. The models reveal a number of intriguing associations. Most important, conservatives’ support for environmental protection varies by country. This variation is a function of country-level characteristics. The strongest opposition of conservatives’ toward environmental protection was observed in developed, capitalist nations, with superior environmental conditions. On the other hand, in less developed countries, and countries characterized by poor environmental quality, conservatives are more environmentally concerned than liberals.

Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

Cohort change and the diffusion of environmental concern: a cross-national analysis

This study explores value change across cohorts for a multinational population sample. Employing a diffusion-of-innovations approach, we combine competing theories predicting the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and environmentalism: post-materialism and affluence theories, and global environmentalism theory. The diffusion argument suggests that high-SES groups first adopt pro-environmental views, but as time passes by, environmentalism diffuses to lower-SES groups. We test the diffusion argument using a sample of 18 countries for two waves (years 1993 and 2000) from the International Social Survey Project. Cross-classified multilevel modeling allows us to identify a nonlinear interaction between cohort and education, our core measure of SES, in predicting environmental concern, while controlling for age and period. We find support for the diffusion argument and demonstrate that the positive effect of education on environmental concern first increases among older cohorts and then starts to level off until a bend point is reached for individuals born around 1940 and becomes progressively weaker for younger cohorts.

Rural livelihoods and access to natural capital: Differences between migrants and non-migrants in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND Although natural resources play a central role in rural livelihoods across the globe, little research has explored the relationship between migration and natural capital use, particularly in combination with other livelihood capitals (i.e., human, social, financial and physical). OBJECTIVE Grounded in the rural livelihood framework, this paper explores the association between the livelihood capital availability, especially natural capital, for migrants and non-migrants in rural Madagascar. METHODS Data from the 2008/2009 Demographic and Health Survey are used in combination with satellite imagery of vegetation coverage (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to proxy natural resources. Hierarchical multilevel models allow for inclusion of cross-level interactions between migrant status and proximate natural resources as determinants of the status of livelihood assets. RESULTS Three key findings emerge. First, higher levels of proximate natural resources are associated with greater financial, human, and social capital for both migrants and non-migrants. Second, migrants have, on average, greater financial, physical, human, and social capital than non-migrants, and urban-to-rural migrants do exceptionally well on all capital asset categories. Third, migrants residing in areas with higher levels of natural capital tend to have significantly higher levels of human capital (education). CONCLUSION Although we cannot examine livelihood strategies per se, the results suggest variation in livelihood potential among migrants and non-migrants in rural Madagascar, with migrants tending to have greater capital assets. In addition, access to natural resources is a central livelihood strategy.

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.

Migration and the Environment

Motivated by growing public and policy concerns with the social implications of climate change, this chapter reviews theory and research on the environmental dimensions of human migration. Recent research on migration-environment connections employs a variety of methods including time series analysis to capture the dynamic nature of migrant flows, multilevel modeling to account for nested data structures, agent-based modeling to incorporate feedback mechanisms, and qualitative ethnographic approaches to investigate causal pathways between environmental triggers and migration responses. Historical analogs and research in disaster settings have also provided useful insight. Findings reveal that the natural environment can act as a ‘push’ factor when livelihoods are challenged by chronic long-term, or rapid onset, environmental change. Scholarly work also stresses the reciprocal impacts of migration on the environment, with negative and positive ecosystem effects in both origin and destination communities. Finally, recent research has employed empirical simulation of migration as related to projected environmental scenarios, suggesting future increases in environmentally-influenced migration flows. However, the study of the migration-environment connection is still nascent and a number of areas deserve additional research attention. These include investigation of migration form and distance (domestic vs. international), rural-urban linkages, health aspects, and social inequalities as both amplifier and implication of environmental migration. In closing, we draw attention to the disconnect between scientific studies and policy debates and call for an increase in interdisciplinary collaborations, bridging the natural – social science divide and fostering interactions with advocacy groups and policymakers.

Wildfire-Migration Dynamics: Lessons from Colorado’s Fourmile Canyon Fire

The number of people living in wildfire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities is on the rise. However, no prior study has investigated wildfire-induced residential relocation from WUI areas after a major fire event. To provide insight into the association between sociodemographic and sociopsychological characteristics and wildfire-related intention to move, we use data from a survey of WUI residents in Boulder and Larimer counties, Colorado. The data were collected 2 months after the devastating Fourmile Canyon fire destroyed 169 homes and burned more than 6,000 acres of public and private land. Although this study is working with a small migrant sample, logistic regression models demonstrate that survey respondents intending to move in relation to wildfire incidence do not differ sociodemographically from their nonmigrant counterparts. They do, however, show significantly higher levels of risk perception. Investigating destination choices shows a preference for short-distance moves.

Undocumented migration in response to climate change

In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

Exploring the impact of the 2008 global food crisis on food security among vulnerable households in rural South Africa.

Recurring food crises endanger the livelihoods of millions of households in developing countries around the globe. Owing to the importance of this issue, we explored recent changes in food security between the years 2004 and 2010 in a rural district in Northeastern South Africa. Our study window spans the time of the 2008 global food crisis and allows the investigation of its impacts on rural South African populations. Grounded in the sustainable livelihood framework, we examined differences in food security trajectories among vulnerable sub populations. A unique panel data set of 8,147 households, provided by the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Agincourt HDSS), allowed us to employ a longitudinal multilevel modeling approach to estimate adjusted growth curves for the differential changes in food security across time. We observed an overall improvement in food security that leveled off after 2008, most likely resulting from the global food crisis. In addition, we discovered significant differences in food security trajectories for various sub populations. For example, female-headed households and those living in areas with better access to natural resources differentially improved their food security situation, compared to male-headed households and those households with lower levels of natural resource access. However, former Mozambican refugees witnessed a decline in food security. Therefore, poverty alleviation programs for the Agincourt region should work to improve the food security of vulnerable households, such as former Mozambican refugees.

Putting trapped populations into place: climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia

Research shows that the association between adverse climate conditions and human migration is heterogeneous. One reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of populations to climate change. This includes highly vulnerable, “trapped” populations that are too poor to migrate given deep and persistent poverty, the financial costs of migrating, and the erosion of already fragile economic livelihoods under climate change. Another reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of places. However, despite the growing list of studies showing that the climate-migration relationship clearly varies across places, there is surprisingly little research on the characteristics of places themselves that trap, or immobilize, populations. Accordingly, we provide the first account of the “holding power” of places in the association between adverse climate conditions and migration flows among 55 districts in Zambia in 2000 and 2010. Methodologically, we combine high-resolution climate information with aggregated census micro data to estimate gravity models of inter-district migration flows. Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate-related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints. Planners and policy makers need to recognize the holding power of places that can trap populations and develop programs to support in situ adaptation and to facilitate migration to avoid humanitarian emergencies.